The recent assembly poll results have sparked considerable debate and controversy, particularly focusing on the perceived North-South divide in India. This discussion has been fueled by the outcomes of the assembly elections in November 2023, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured significant victories in the northern states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. In contrast, the Congress party won in the southern state of Telangana, marking a stark political contrast between these regions.
A notable incident that has intensified this discussion is the "gaumutra" statement made by DMK MP DNV Senthilkumar S in Lok Sabha. This comment was pejorative and has rightly sparked a controversy, leading to a backlash and discussions about the North-South divide in India.
The narrative around these election results and the subsequent comments by political figures reflect an underlying assumption about the voting behavior in northern India. Critics argue that voters in these regions are not exercising their votes properly. Further, there is also an assumption that there exists a positive correlation between lower literacy levels and the electorate voting for the BJP.
This sentiment aligns with broader skepticism about the effectiveness of democratic systems. This skepticism questions whether elections produce governments that genuinely respond to the public's needs, a debate notably intensified by Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels in their 2016 book "Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government." They critique the traditional view of democracy, which assumes voters are rational, well-informed, and capable of choosing the most competent party based on a careful assessment of policies. Thus, the ones who are propagating this north-south controversy might find solace in Achen & Bartels' work.
However, this Western-based critique may not fully capture the complexities of voter behavior in developing nations like India. In states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, recent electoral outcomes suggest that voters are capable of making informed decisions that influence policymaking. These regions have shown that electoral results often hinge on the government's performance and policy decisions, challenging the idea of an uninformed electorate.
Research indicates that good governance and fair policies can positively impact voter turnout. This relationship suggests that voters do respond to and reward sound policymaking, contrary to the underestimation of voter decision-making abilities in Achen and Bartels' critique. The Indian electorate often views voting not just as a civic duty but as an endorsement of policies that tangibly impact their daily lives, aligning with the findings of scholars like Bolsen, Ferraro, and Miranda (2014) and Nickerson and Arceneaux (2009).
This is precisely what the results of these assembly elections were. They were an emphatic endorsement of policies that tangibly impacted the policies at the grassroots. People didn't vote just on the how the policies by the state government was promoting ease of living but also the efforts by the union government. In a decisive effort to ensure equitable access to fundamental necessities, the government of India, as revealed in the Economic Survey 2020-21, provided bare necessities to every Indian. The Bare Necessities Index (BNI), comprised of a holistic compilation of 26 indicators, is framed around five essential dimensions: water, sanitation, housing, micro-environment, and other vital services. The index serves as a pivotal tool to gauge the country's progress in fulfilling basic needs. The introduction of the BNI marked a significant milestone, reflecting the government's unwavering commitment to improving living standards for every Indian. Remarkably, the BNI demonstrated tangible progress, indicating that between 2012 and 2018, access to basic needs had improved in every state across the nation. The access to basic necessities have further improved the constant efforts made by the Government through network of schemes like Swachh Bharat Mission, National Rural Drinking Water Programme, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Saubhagya and Ujjwala Yojana access to bare necessities.
The improvement in access to bare necessities in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh can be a significant factor in explaining the BJP's success in elections in these regions. When a political party focuses on development projects that directly impact the quality of life for the majority of the population, especially those at the lower economic stratum, it often gains political support.
In these states, there was a visible transition from very low to medium, which essentially means that the levels of access to bare necessities between 2012 and 2018 increased significantly. These numbers would have further gone up owing to schemes like Jal Jeevan Mission, Ujjwala, Ayushman Bharat etc. When the electorate experiences tangible benefits in their daily lives, they are more likely to support the incumbent government, attributing their improved living standards to the policies and programs it has implemented.
Another proxy for gauging whether the lives of people at the grassroots have improved is by looking at the voting patterns of the women. Targeted development schemes have been a cornerstone of their strategy, with initiatives such as the 'Ladli Behana' in Madhya Pradesh, a financial aid scheme that contributed to significant improvements in the lives of those in the lower economic strata. This focus on development has been a persuasive element in swaying voter sentiment, as tangible enhancements in living standards directly impact the electorate's daily lives, thereby garnering support for the BJP.
In tandem with these development efforts, the BJP has successfully rallied women's support, which has been crucial to their electoral strategy. Women's voter turnout has shown a remarkable upward trend, especially in Madhya Pradesh, where it rose from 70.1% in 2013 to 76.0% in 2023 and remained high in Chhattisgarh. The BJP's effective vote share among women has been notable, with 50% of women voters in Madhya Pradesh expressing their support as per exit polls. The party has also employed a multifaceted outreach program that includes engaging first-time voters, organizing young women's conferences, and reaching out to professional women, which likely played a significant role in these states' electoral outcomes.
The recent assembly election results in India and the ensuing North-South controversy serve as a poignant reminder of the folly in underestimating the electorate. The mocking tones and sweeping generalisations that paint Northern states as less discerning or Southern states as inherently oppositional miss the crux of the matter - voters vote for development. The assembly elections of 2023 have spoken volumes, not just through the ballot but in the tangible improvements in the lives of the people due to effective governance.
The assumption that voters in certain regions are less informed or incapable of making sound political decisions is not just condescending but patently incorrect. The results from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh underscore a truth often overlooked: people recognize and reward the efforts that directly impact their lives.
Let us remember the real divide is between those who understand the aspirations of India's voters and those who choose to belittle them. In the end, the voter's wisdom prevails, guided not by unfounded biases but by a clear-eyed assessment of which policies and leaders will best serve their interests and uplift their lives. The results are a resounding statement: Indian voters are neither naive nor can they be taken for granted. They vote for progress, they vote for development, and they vote with the hope of a better tomorrow.
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Bibek Debroy is the Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) & Aditya Sinha is Additional Private Secretary (Policy & Research), EAC-PM.
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
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