By Badri Narayan
Much of the analysis of the 2024 parliamentary election in mainstream print and electronic media is centred on Central and North India. The discourse on the eastern, western, and southern parts are relatively marginal. In analysing the prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), too, the focus tends to be on Central and North India.
This column looks at the party’s prospects in states beyond North and Central India such as Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. It is pertinent because the BJP reached its highest tally in the last parliamentary election in 2019. Now, the key to adding more seats lies in its performance in other states and repeating its results in North/Central India.
Also Read The decimation of democracy: BJP’s ‘Make India great again’ narrative is unlikely to become a reality anytime soon Whither India-China trade? Enhancing agri-productivity Evaluating Mintzberg’s 10 schools of thoughts for strategy formulation
An interesting pattern in many eastern and south Indian states is that they have non-BJP governments led mostly by regional parties such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odissa, the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is at the helm.
So, these states have two sets of beneficiaries — one group benefitting from the policies, welfares schemes, and development initiatives of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government, and the other benefitting from welfare schemes implemented by the respective state governments.
Both groups overlap each other, but the general election is evolving as a contest between two sets of claims and counterclaims around development narratives. The PM Modi-led development politics may have to contest with the chief ministers’ own versions in their respective states.
These states have emerged as a zone of competition between the images of the PM and CM. Naveen Patnaik in Odisha, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, and MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu are not only the chief ministers but also popular leaders and star campaigners of their parties.
This year, many analysts view Odisha as a state of electoral possibilities for the BJP. This perception is borne of three reasons. First, PM Modi’s image is very powerful in Odisha. We find many people in the state adjusting to two popular leaderships, that of Modi and Patnaik, and repose faith in the BJP at the Centre and the BJD in Odisha. However, various anti-incumbency narratives against the state government may hurt the BJD’s prospects in winning seats, as simultaneous Assembly polls are taking place.
So, Modi’s image is one of the main components of the BJP’s electoral capital, which is giving an edge to the party in various parliamentary seats. Secondly, Modi and the state BJP have made this election about protecting Odia identity. The issue is being raised by influential state leaders like Dharmendra Pradhan. It is gaining momentum because of the way VK Pandian, a former IAS officer, became prominent in the BJD. Pandian, who is not from Odisha and is a close aide of Patnaik, is labelled an “outsider” by political opponents.
Secondly, in Odisha and West Bengal, Odia and Bengali are cultural identities that matter a lot for nearly all sections. A leader like Pradhan, in his tenure as education minister, has worked to strengthen Odia culture and pride in the last few years and cautioned against a growing non-Odia influence in BJD politics as a threat to local culture, too.
Thirdly, the development gaps in poverty alleviation, agricultural empowerment, livelihood, migration, and exploiting the rich mineral resources of the state have allowed the BJP to raise these issues. Pradhan and other BJP leaders are articulating voices of disillusionment effectively in this election.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is working to retain her vote base combining Muslim community, which is around 27% of the population, and middle-class support. On the other hand, the BJP sees an opportunity due to three reasons. First, it has been trying to mobilise the Hindu Bengali against Banerjee’s “Muslim appeasement” politics.
Secondly, it is trying to mobilise marginal and subaltern Hindu Bengali communities with development and identity-based promises. Thirdly, the BJP is proposing Modi’s development politics as an alternative for the future of Bengal as it aspires to improve its performance in the last parliamentary election.
Tamil Nadu has continued to be a difficult battleground for the BJP because of its political traditions influenced by anti-Hindi and anti-Brahmin movements. Stalin is trying to revive these memories to check the BJP’s growth in the state. In conversations with political observers, one gets the impression that the BJP will fare better this year. According to them, the party’s vote percentage may grow and it may even win a few seats.
If it does happen, it will because of two reasons. The party now has influential leaders at the state level like K Annamalai, besides a prominent face like Tamilisai Soundararajan who wields influence in a few pockets. Secondly, Modi’s popularity is growing. In rural Tamil Nadu, one can find people appreciating his social welfare schemes such as free ration, pensions, and direct benefit transfer schemes.
Modi and the BJP have organised events such as the Kashi Tamil Sangamam and Saurashtra Tamil Sangamam in North and Western India to shift perception about the party among a section of Tamils. How it benefits from its alliance with the Pattali Makkal Katchi also remains a question.
In Kerala, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has prepared the ground for Hindutva politics. It may lead to an increase in the BJP’s vote percentage. But we have to wait and see if the growing visibility in Kerala will translate into seats.
How the efforts of the BJP — its issues, agendas, and campaigns — are going to result in seats and add to the tally in North and Central India remains to be seen.
The author is Director of the G B Pant Social Science Institute in Allahabad.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
By Badri Narayan
Much of the analysis of the 2024 parliamentary election in mainstream print and electronic media is centred on Central and North India. The discourse on the eastern, western, and southern parts are relatively marginal. In analysing the prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), too, the focus tends to be on Central and North India.
This column looks at the party’s prospects in states beyond North and Central India such as Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. It is pertinent because the BJP reached its highest tally in the last parliamentary election in 2019. Now, the key to adding more seats lies in its performance in other states and repeating its results in North/Central India.
An interesting pattern in many eastern and south Indian states is that they have non-BJP governments led mostly by regional parties such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odissa, the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is at the helm.
So, these states have two sets of beneficiaries — one group benefitting from the policies, welfares schemes, and development initiatives of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government, and the other benefitting from welfare schemes implemented by the respective state governments.
Both groups overlap each other, but the general election is evolving as a contest between two sets of claims and counterclaims around development narratives. The PM Modi-led development politics may have to contest with the chief ministers’ own versions in their respective states.
These states have emerged as a zone of competition between the images of the PM and CM. Naveen Patnaik in Odisha, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, and MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu are not only the chief ministers but also popular leaders and star campaigners of their parties.
This year, many analysts view Odisha as a state of electoral possibilities for the BJP. This perception is borne of three reasons. First, PM Modi’s image is very powerful in Odisha. We find many people in the state adjusting to two popular leaderships, that of Modi and Patnaik, and repose faith in the BJP at the Centre and the BJD in Odisha. However, various anti-incumbency narratives against the state government may hurt the BJD’s prospects in winning seats, as simultaneous Assembly polls are taking place.
So, Modi’s image is one of the main components of the BJP’s electoral capital, which is giving an edge to the party in various parliamentary seats. Secondly, Modi and the state BJP have made this election about protecting Odia identity. The issue is being raised by influential state leaders like Dharmendra Pradhan. It is gaining momentum because of the way VK Pandian, a former IAS officer, became prominent in the BJD. Pandian, who is not from Odisha and is a close aide of Patnaik, is labelled an “outsider” by political opponents.
Secondly, in Odisha and West Bengal, Odia and Bengali are cultural identities that matter a lot for nearly all sections. A leader like Pradhan, in his tenure as education minister, has worked to strengthen Odia culture and pride in the last few years and cautioned against a growing non-Odia influence in BJD politics as a threat to local culture, too.
Thirdly, the development gaps in poverty alleviation, agricultural empowerment, livelihood, migration, and exploiting the rich mineral resources of the state have allowed the BJP to raise these issues. Pradhan and other BJP leaders are articulating voices of disillusionment effectively in this election.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is working to retain her vote base combining Muslim community, which is around 27% of the population, and middle-class support. On the other hand, the BJP sees an opportunity due to three reasons. First, it has been trying to mobilise the Hindu Bengali against Banerjee’s “Muslim appeasement” politics.
Secondly, it is trying to mobilise marginal and subaltern Hindu Bengali communities with development and identity-based promises. Thirdly, the BJP is proposing Modi’s development politics as an alternative for the future of Bengal as it aspires to improve its performance in the last parliamentary election.
Tamil Nadu has continued to be a difficult battleground for the BJP because of its political traditions influenced by anti-Hindi and anti-Brahmin movements. Stalin is trying to revive these memories to check the BJP’s growth in the state. In conversations with political observers, one gets the impression that the BJP will fare better this year. According to them, the party’s vote percentage may grow and it may even win a few seats.
If it does happen, it will because of two reasons. The party now has influential leaders at the state level like K Annamalai, besides a prominent face like Tamilisai Soundararajan who wields influence in a few pockets. Secondly, Modi’s popularity is growing. In rural Tamil Nadu, one can find people appreciating his social welfare schemes such as free ration, pensions, and direct benefit transfer schemes.
Modi and the BJP have organised events such as the Kashi Tamil Sangamam and Saurashtra Tamil Sangamam in North and Western India to shift perception about the party among a section of Tamils. How it benefits from its alliance with the Pattali Makkal Katchi also remains a question.
In Kerala, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has prepared the ground for Hindutva politics. It may lead to an increase in the BJP’s vote percentage. But we have to wait and see if the growing visibility in Kerala will translate into seats.
How the efforts of the BJP — its issues, agendas, and campaigns — are going to result in seats and add to the tally in North and Central India remains to be seen.
The author is Director of the G B Pant Social Science Institute in Allahabad.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
Get live Share Market updates, Stock Market Quotes, and the latest India News and business news on Financial Express. Download the Financial Express App for the latest finance news.
Rain and thunderstorms caused chaos in Hyderabad, with power outages, traffic jams, and other incidents. People shared their experiences on social media, and the GHMC head office received the highest rainfall. Roads were flooded and trees were uprooted, but the DRF cleared the water.
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Rami G Khouri
Mort Laitner
Rachel Marsden
Donald Low
Bradley Blankenship
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Nikkei Editorial
Abbas Juma
Michael Kwet
visit website
