Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just wrapped up his latest visit to Tamil Nadu – his 7th in two months. The PM is making a lot of effort in Tamil Nadu to help the BJP make a breakthrough in the southern state.
While it has broken up with the AIADMK, one of the two primary Dravidian parties in the state, the BJP has several smaller allies – PMK, AMMK, and TMC(M) – besides former chief minister OPS, who has been expelled by the AIADMK.
It hopes to emerge as the main opposition to the DMK as the AIADMK weakens in the post-Jayalalithaa era, and eventually break the hold of Dravidian parties on its twin plank of dynasty and corruption.
The party is banking on the youth, who feel the need for a change of scenario from the AIADMK-vs-DMK contest that has defined elections over the past 50 years.
They have an energetic leader in K. Annamalai, who has created a space for himself in a state led by leaders of Dravidian parties. Nominated from Coimbatore, he has struck a chord with a section of youth.
The BJP has its sights set on winning seats in the double-digits to accomplish its Mission 50 (winning 50 of the southern states’ 129 seats). It has raised emotive issues like Katchatheevu, and banking on events like Tamil Kashi Samagam in Varanasi.
However, it’s easier said than done, as the BJP faces many challenges. While EPS is running a spirited campaign, the DMK-led alliance got a mammoth vote share of 53% in 2019.
The state votes in the first phase on April 19.
In 2019, the DMK-led alliance won 38 of the state’s 39 Lok Sabha seats, with the remaining one going to the AIADMK.
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The DMK has formed an alliance with national parties (BJP/INC) five times, and it has propelled the national party to form the government on four of these occasions (1980, 1999, 2004, 2009).
The AIADMK has formed an alliance with national parties seven times, and helped them form the government four times (1984, 1991, 1998, 2019).
Whichever group (INC or BJP) forms an alliance with the DMK has gone on to win the maximum seats in the state, and form the government at the Centre, except for in 2019.
Notably, whenever the DMK has contested alone/not aligned with major parties, it has not been able to win even five seats (1977, 1984, 1989, 1991, 1998, 2014).
On the contrary, the AIADMK’s best performance – 45% vote share and 37 seats – came when it contested alone.
Over the years, smaller parties like the PMK (Ramadoss), the MDMK (Vaiko) and the DMDK (Vijaykanth) have sprung up to challenge the dominance of the two primary Dravidian parties.
They have together garnered over 20% of the vote share on average in the last five polls. These parties have pockets of influence in specific regions and communities that provide them the edge. Then there are other players like the VCK and the Left Front (CPI/CPM), which also enjoy decent support in some pockets of the state.
Hindus account for 88%, Muslims 5.5% and Christians 6% of the state’s population. SC/STs form 21% of the population. Minorities and Vanniyars are traditional supporters of the DMK, while upper-caste Hindus and Mudaliars, and SCs have backed the AIADMK.
Many vote segments overlap, smaller parties have pockets of influence, which makes the contest quite interesting. Urban, semi-urban seats are considered as DMK strongholds, while the AIADMK is believed to have a hold on rural areas.
Both the DMK and the AIADMK have allied with both the national parties in the past.
The DMK allied with the BJP in 1999, after the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK dumped the latter – this separation had led to the downfall of the 13-months Vajpayee government and snap polls.
For almost 20 years, the DMK and the Congress contested vigorously against each other in the state. But it has shunned its strong anti-Congress stand and contested polls together with the grand old party on all occasions since 2004, except 2014.
The smaller parties, drawing inspiration from the DMK and the AIADMK, have also allied with one or the other.
The PMK has had a truck with both the DMK and the AIADMK in the past, and so has the MDMK. The DMDK, led by superstar Vijayakanth, which made a fabulous debut in 2009 bagging 10.5% vote share, allied with the BJP in 2014.
For the 2019 elections, the PMK and the MDMK formed an alliance with the AIADMK, which joined the NDA. Meanwhile, Vaiko sealed a deal with the DMK.
For 2024, the PMK is with the BJP, the DMDK with the AIADMK (in a post-Vijayakanth era), and the MDMK with the DMK.
There is a big swing vote in Tamil Nadu. In the 2014 election, the AIADMK gained 22% vote share at the expense of the Congress (-11%), DMK (-1%) and others (-12%). In the 2019 elections, the AIADMK lost 26% vote share, lapped up by DMK (10%), INC (9%) and others (8%). The BJP hopes to woo these swing voters.
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In 2019, Modi suffered from a vicious #GoBackModi campaign, which impacted the party’s performance. From there, he has made a strong comeback.
For the BJP, it seems to be largely a vote-share play and a long-term game, with Annamalai claiming a 20% vote share.
The BJP can’t win seats by just consuming the AIADMK vote share. It will have to make a dent in the DMK vote share, and that is going to be not easy.
The DMK is playing the Tamil pride issue, and has accused the BJP of meddling in the affairs of a duly elected government through the backdoor/governor.
Can the BJP make a significant dent, or is its campaign more geared towards laying the groundwork for the future? Either way, a cracker of an election is on the cards.
The author is a political commentator.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
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