The Lok Sabha elections are around the corner and both the ruling NDA and the opposition I.N.D.I.A bloc have started preparations in full swing. The BJP has launched its campaign song, "Phir aayega Modi", while the Congress organised its "Hum taiyyar hain" rally on its 138th Foundation Day in Nagpur, which is the headquarters of BJP's ideological parent, the RSS.
The year 2023 saw assembly elections in nine states — Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. The BJP won four states, the Congress 2, and regional parties three states. BJP is the junior partner in government in two of the three states where regional parties emerged victorious — Meghalaya and Nagaland.
The state election results throw light on key themes going into the grand finale in the first quarter of 2024.
1. It's a lot about Modi
The 2024 general elections is a lot about Prime Minister Modi, if not all. Modi continues to get votes for the BJP on his name, mostly from voters who are not ideologically aligned with the party. He leads the popularity charts for PM ratings by far. He has established an emotional chord with a large section of the populace. If not for Modi, BJP would not have been able to win Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections.
At a time when general elections have become presidential style with 37% people voting on the basis of the PM face, his popularity and appeal to a wide array of voters is a big plus for the BJP. In fact, Modi is the differentiating factor between NDA and I.N.D.I.A.
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2. Local anti-incumbency vs Central pro-incumbency
Of the nine states that went to elections, five incumbent governments (Rajasthan, Telangana, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram) lost power while Meghalaya threw a hung verdict. A common phenomenon was observed that voters were generally happy and satisfied with the chief ministerial faces (except Karnataka) but disillusioned with the performance of local MLAs.
So while Modi remains popular, BJP MPs could be facing anti-incumbency due to lack of accessibility (especially during Covid) and development projects in the region. The BJP denied tickets to 35% of its MPs in the 2019 general elections to negate local-level anti-incumbency. An interesting local anti-incumbency versus pro-incumbency central government battle is on the cards.
3. Economy a pain point
The status of economy is a cause for concern for the BJP government. Inflation, poverty and unemployment were top three issues across state elections in 2023. The Indian economy has recovered well after Covid, compared to other countries in the world, but income inequalities have become starker. Unemployment is emerging as a big issue for the youth.
The extension of free ration distribution to 80 crore people for another five years points in this direction. The BJP, which is principally opposed to freebies, promised a lot of them in their manifestoes in states. Cash doles like Laadli Behna, while helping the party to win MP, are a big drain on the state’s finances. There is talk of an increase in the PM Kisan Nidhi amount to adjust for inflation.
ALSO READ | Opposition Had An Eventful 2023: I.N.D.I.A Formation, Electoral Losses, And New Frontiers
4. Credibility is key when it comes to promises
The opposition (mainly Congress), aware of the economic and agricultural issues, has launched a series of guarantees to alleviate distress. It seems to have met with some success in Karnataka and Telangana. However, in most other states, its promises have failed to attract voters. The reason largely is lack of credibility.
Wherever the party had trustworthy faces — such as Siddaramaiah and Revanth Reddy — it was able to convince voters of its ability to deliver. However, at the national level, in a Modi-versus-Rahul/Kharge or a combined leadership of Congress plus regional leaders, Modi ranks higher in credibility. While there are issues, people also consider who will be able to solve them, based on their track record.
5. No substitute for good governance
No government, be it in states or at the centre, can win any elections in India without performing on good governance parameters. Delivery is key to retaining power. Incumbents cannot promise, only the opposition can. The incumbent has to deliver. This is why we see Modi never missing a chance to highlight his government’s achievements.
A good 10-20 minutes in most of Modi’s speeches re devoted to his governance record. Delivery gives confidence to voters about a party’s ability to deliver on its promises. The Congress is not in power at the Centre, so it has to either puncture BJP’s delivery claim, or make voters recall its achievements of (earlier) governments. It also has to prove to voters that its 10 years of rule under Manmohan Singh was better than Modi’s 10 years.
To sum up, these 5 themes could well decide the course of 2024 elections. Whichever bloc seizes the narrative of these themes is expected to have an upper hand.
The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
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