Unemployment has been among the top five issues in Lok Sabha elections across surveys. This issue impacts youth, who account for 50% of India’s population. The ruling party, BJP, and the opposition have been at loggerheads on this issue. While the opposition has been making unemployment a big issue in elections, this has not been bearing fruit for them.
The BJP claims unemployment rate came down to 3.1 percent in 2023 from 3.6 per cent in 2022, and 4.2 per cent in 2021, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). The opposition uses the same report of 2019 to highlight that India’s unemployment rate is the highest in 45 years.
A government job is the dream of most youth in the Hindi heartland. Despite high levels of unemployment and lack of jobs, how is BJP winning elections after elections? Why is this issue not impacting the electoral fortunes of the party?
A survey conducted among the youth in New Delhi, mainly Delhi University students, throws interesting insights.
The survey has 80% of the respondents saying that getting employment has been difficult or very difficult in the last two years. While 24% respondents are pretty sure about their job prospects relative to their education, 49% are somewhat sure, and 26% not sure if they would get a job on the basis of the subjects they are currently studying, or the course they are pursuing.
Accorrding to the Lokniti-CSDS survey, 27% respondents prefer to be job seekers, while 47% want to be job givers. Another 12% also wish to be job creators but they rue lack of resources. This shows that a large section of youth today nurse entrepreneurial ambitions and align with what Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedy said about the youth of India becoming job creators.
There is a clear gender disparity on this issue, with 58% men compared to 39% women wishing to be job creators.
The highest 35% believe people themselves are responsible for unemployment, while 30% believe the Modi-led central government is to blame for the situation. Since the survey was conducted in Delhi, 15% respondents think Arvind Kejriwal-led state government is responsible for the youth going without jobs.
Accoring to the survey, as much as 55% youths believe the Modi government has tried but couldn’t succeed in generating unemployment, while another 25% feel he has been successful. Only 16% believe the Modi government has completely failed.
Unemployment is clearly the most influential factor for the youth’s voting decision — with 41% of the respondents agreeing with this. For 23%, the most important voting consideration is inflation, while 12% respondents give this slot to PM Modi’s image, 9% to corruption, 5% to Ram Mandir, 2% to religious identity and 1% to beneficiary status.
While unemployment is clearly a key factor, it is not the main voting consideration for majority (59%). This is in synch with the 59% who prefer not to be job seekers but creators (47% + 12%).
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The survey clearly shows why unemployment has not emerged as a key issue until now to negatively impact the BJP’s poll prospects.
A majority of the youth today wish to be job creators. PM Modi appears to enjoy the trust of youth, with the majority feeling he has "saaf neeyat (good intentions)" on the matter. For 12% youth, he is the main voting factor.
Credibility is key when it comes to voting decisions, and the ability of the opposition to form voter opinion on an issue matters too. In the case of unemployment, it appears that a mojority of people even among the 41% for whom unemployment is the biggest factor feel Modi is in the best position to solve this issue.
This is helped by the fact that the opposition has not laid out a full-proof roadmap of generating employment. While the Congress has proposed to fill up government vacancies, it remains to be seen whether the youth take this promise seriously and believe they can actually do this given the strain on central and state finances.
Another issue that works against the Congress at present is that it has not been able to develop a model state and showcase its job creation policies — neither in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh that it ruled for five years, nor in Telangana or Karnataka where it won elections last year.
The author is a political commentator.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
Unemployment Is Still A Key Election Issue For Youth, But It's Not Shaping Their Voting Pattern. Know Why
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01.04.2024
Unemployment has been among the top five issues in Lok Sabha elections across surveys. This issue impacts youth, who account for 50% of India’s population. The ruling party, BJP, and the opposition have been at loggerheads on this issue. While the opposition has been making unemployment a big issue in elections, this has not been bearing fruit for them.
The BJP claims unemployment rate came down to 3.1 percent in 2023 from 3.6 per cent in 2022, and 4.2 per cent in 2021, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). The opposition uses the same report of 2019 to highlight that India’s unemployment rate is the highest in 45 years.
A government job is the dream of most youth in the Hindi heartland. Despite high levels of unemployment and lack of jobs, how is BJP winning elections after elections? Why is this issue not impacting the electoral fortunes of the party?
A survey conducted among the youth in New Delhi, mainly Delhi University students, throws interesting insights.
The survey has 80% of the respondents saying that getting employment has been difficult or very difficult in the last two years. While 24% respondents are........
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