As the curtains fall on the state assembly elections across five states, the spotlight now turns to the intricacies of exit polls. Widely regarded as both a nuanced art and a speculative science, these surveys have demonstrated a mixed track record in the past. Notably, in the 2018 elections, with the exception of Rajasthan, the majority of exit polls failed to accurately predict outcomes. Yet, it remains undeniable that these polls provide a sweeping narrative and a snapshot of the electoral landscape.
While the final verdict awaits revelation on December 3, it is a good time to glean insights from these pre-election surveys. Crucially, if the trends highlighted by exit polls prove accurate, it signals a pivotal moment for major political players, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. The efficacy of their conventional poll strategies is brought into question, emphasising the need for a recalibration. It becomes evident that these tried-and-tested approaches may no longer yield the desired results on the evolving political terrain. As the electorate awaits the unveiling of the actual results, the writing on the wall suggests that adaptability may be the key to political success in the contemporary landscape.
Assembly Elections 2023 Verdict On December 3: FULL COVERAGE ON ABP LIVE
Revitalising Congress: Strategic Emphasis On South Could Prove Decisive
An analysis of the outcome forecast by Telangana exit polls reveals a potential game-changing scenario for the Congress. Projections suggest that the party may secure approximately 62 seats, while the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), led by K Chandrasekhar Rao, is anticipated to get around 44 seats, based on an average of seven exit polls. This statistical advantage presents a golden opportunity for the grand old party, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape. With a significant victory in Karnataka, the Congress has already demonstrated its resurgence. Additionally, the party shares governance in Tamil Nadu through a coalition with the DMK and maintains a notable presence in Kerala.
If the exit poll predictions turn right, Congress ascending to power in Telangana would mark a substantial triumph for the party in South India. This underscores the imperative for the Congress to redirect its focus towards the South, where its influence is burgeoning, rather than prioritising the Hindi heartland. The prevailing Hindi heartland-centric political strategy of the Congress warrants reevaluation. A South-centric approach, as indicated by the potential Telangana outcome, could indeed serve as a strategic game-changer for the party. This shift in emphasis reflects the evolving dynamics of Indian politics and underscores the need for adaptability in the Congress's political playbook.
ALSO READ | Telangana Exit Polls Predict Congress Revival In Region That Was Its Bastion Once
Nipping Infighting In The Bud Is Essential
The recent exit polls paint a distinct picture, favouring the BJP in Rajasthan and the Congress in Chhattisgarh. This dichotomy underscores the urgent necessity for a proactive and robust approach to address internal strife within political parties. In Rajasthan, the Congress grappled with unresolved infighting issues, notably between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and senior leader Sachin Pilot. Unfortunately, the party's delayed intervention allowed the conflict to persist, reaching a critical juncture just months before the elections. While a tenuous truce was eventually brokered, the impact on the party's cohesion was palpable. Conversely, in Chhattisgarh, the Congress took a more assertive stance in handling internal discord between CM Bhupesh Baghel and senior leader TS Singh Deo who was made the Deputy Chief Minister earlier this year. The strategic appointment of Deo as Deputy CM proved effective in quelling tensions and fostering unity within the party.
The BJP, cognisant of internal strife in Rajasthan involving new leaders and former CM Vasundhara Raje, adopted a contrasting strategy. Opting for an aggressive downplaying approach, the saffron party presented a united front, emphasising a clear narrative centered on development, sidelining internal conflicts. The BJP's approach in Madhya Pradesh, where exit polls suggest a potential victory, is noteworthy. Employing a pragmatic approach, the party addressed internal discord by fielding Union ministers and MPs. This dual strategy not only mitigated infighting but also addressed potential anti-incumbency sentiments against Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
In the realm of Indian politics, the handling of internal conflicts emerges as a critical determinant of electoral success. The contrasting strategies employed by the Congress and the BJP in addressing party infighting underscore the pivotal role of internal unity in shaping the electoral landscape.
ALSO READ | Huge Disparities, Contradictory Conclusions: Exit Polls Have Only Added To The Confusion
BJP Should Look Beyond Modi Factor
The recent state elections underscore a critical need for the BJP to transcend its reliance on the charismatic appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for electoral success. The escalating overdependence on PM Modi in state polls has proven to be counterproductive, a trend substantiated by current exit polls. Examining states like Madhya Pradesh reveals the BJP's success when supported by strong regional leaders like Shivraj Singh Chauhan and a cadre of leaders with grassroots political experience. Despite internal dissimilarities, Rajasthan's resilient organisational framework and credible leaders, notably Vasundhara Raje, have showcased an ability to navigate local elections more effectively than Prime Minister Narendra Modi's centralised approach. Telangana serves as a noteworthy case where the BJP's attempt at centralised management, with personal outreach by Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, failed to secure victory. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, the BJP faltered due to a lack of emphasis on establishing a robust organisational structure and cultivating local leaders with grassroots political connections, opting instead for a central-level campaign focused on allegations against the Congress chief minister.
Opposition Should Rethink Caste Census Pitch
In the lead-up to the state elections in these five states, Bihar, guided by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's leadership, took the unprecedented step of publishing the state's caste census. Recognising the potential significance of caste-related issues as a political battleground, parties across the spectrum began to consider it a potential game-changer.
Rahul Gandhi, at the helm of the Congress party, strategically championed this cause throughout the state elections, emphasising that a Congress-led government would undertake a caste census and reassess the OBC representation. However, as the dust settles on the exit poll results, it becomes apparent that this pitch hasn't resonated as expected, particularly in OBC-dominated states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This development prompts a critical examination of whether the caste-centric approach will prove effective in the larger political landscape. It raises questions about potential of the pitch as a transformative plank for the Congress. In the wake of these results, it becomes imperative for the opposition to devise a distinct strategy to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its formidable organisational prowess. At this juncture, it appears that sole reliance on caste dynamics may not yield the desired impact, perhaps finding resonance primarily in the unique context of Bihar. The broader conclusion emerges that diversifying tactics is essential for the opposition to effectively counter the BJP's entrenched position.
ALSO READ | Who Will Win Rajasthan This Time? Clue Lies In The State's Electoral History
Local Issues Are Key
The recent state polls once again underscore the paramount importance of local issues in influencing electoral outcomes. In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's slew of welfare schemes faced a formidable challenge from the BJP, which deftly spotlighted fundamental issues like law and order and employment. This dynamic showcases how focusing on intrinsic problems within a state can overshadow even well-implemented welfare initiatives.
A parallel scenario unfolded in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress, despite making promises of freebies, found itself upstaged by the BJP's emphasis on robust governance and grassroots issues. The party's spokespersons adeptly navigated the political terrain, securing electoral benefits grounded in tangible on-the-ground concerns.
Moreover, if the exit poll predictions hold true, it suggests a notable influence of women in these elections, contributing significantly to the success of political parties. Women appear to have thrown their support behind parties that prioritised grassroots issues. Notably, in Madhya Pradesh, the woman-centric development schemes spearheaded by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan seem to have yielded results, further emphasising the impact of addressing local concerns.
This electoral landscape serves as a global reminder that understanding and effectively addressing regional challenges and concerns remains pivotal in securing electoral success, transcending the allure of promises and schemes. The nuanced interplay of local dynamics and the electorate's priorities has once again proven to be a decisive factor in shaping political outcomes.
While the conclusive results of these elections are yet to unfold, Sunday promises clarity on the matter. However, if the trajectories indicated by the exit polls materialise, certain noteworthy factors come into play. It is crucial to acknowledge that in 2018, the BJP faced defeat in all these states. Today, the exit poll trends suggest a potential resurgence, prompting reflection on the efficacy of the party's strategies — constructive or otherwise. Ultimately, the focus remains on the final outcome, as winning state elections without a well-established organisational framework is an improbable feat.
This juncture calls for an acknowledgment that the BJP, if the exit poll predictions turn true, has evidently invested significant efforts in ground-level operations within these states. The party seems to have fortified and cultivated a robust grassroots organisation, a facet that may have been lacking in previous electoral endeavors. This realisation underscores the importance of organisational strength in determining electoral success, emphasising the transformative impact of strategic groundwork on the political landscape.
The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and he is a political columnist.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
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