The United States is ramping up efforts to drive a wedge between China and Russia, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to China serving as a key move in this strategic maneuver.
Reports from the Financial Times and Bloomberg suggest that Blinken’s discussions in China revolved around warning Beijing of potential sanctions for its alleged supply of military technology to Russia. While the specifics of these sanctions remain undisclosed, sources hint at possible restrictions targeting Chinese financial and other institutions. Interestingly, reports from Izvestia indicate that certain Chinese banks, including the largest, ICBC, have already ceased accepting payments in yuan from Russia to avoid potential secondary sanctions. This shift has led to the rejection of nearly 80% of payments destined for China.
Washington appears convinced of China’s genuine support for the Russian defense industry, despite efforts to keep such collaboration under wraps. This support is believed to be significantly influencing the trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine.
However, Blinken’s approach in China suggests a departure from overt threats and ultimatums. Previous encounters between the Biden administration and Chinese officials, notably the tense meeting in Alaska in March 2021, demonstrated that aggressive tactics yield little progress with Beijing. Instead, Blinken seems to be pursuing a more nuanced strategy, seeking to exploit potential divergences between Moscow and Beijing.
China’s peace initiatives regarding the Ukraine conflict diverge from Russia’s maximalist demands, particularly in their stance toward NATO and the resolution’s terms. This variance could be leveraged by Blinken to drive a wedge between the two allies.
Yet, recent signals from China, including an article in The Economist by Professor Feng Yujun of Peking University, indicate a potential willingness to distance itself from Moscow. Feng’s critique of Russia and praise for Ukraine align with Western political narratives, suggesting a shift in China’s stance.
Despite these developments, the broader context of US-China relations poses challenges for Washington’s strategy. Moves such as the US Congress’s approval of military aid to Taiwan and efforts to bolster anti-Chinese alliances in the Asia-Pacific region complicate negotiations with Beijing.
Given the overarching rivalry between the US and China, Beijing may be reluctant to comply with American pressure on Moscow, fearing isolation once US objectives in Russia are achieved. This reluctance reflects China’s strategic calculations under President Xi Jinping’s leadership.
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