In 2007, 4,316,233 babies were born in the US, just beating out the previous record of 4.3 million set at the peak of the baby boom in 1957 — that’s an approximation because not all births were recorded in national statistics at the time. It has been almost all downhill since then, with last year’s total of 3,595,298 live births the lowest since 1979, although that number hasn’t been finalized and could still rise a little.

As the headline and annotation on the chart make clear, this has implications for the working-age population. Those record-setting babies of 2007 turned 16 last year, which according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is when working age begins, so this year the number of native-born 16-year-olds will start falling. While there’s no end to working age according to the BLS,1if you cut things off at 64 as statistics agencies in other countries do, then it’s clear that the continued aging of the baby boomers, the last of whom will turn 65 in 2029, is also putting downward pressure on the potential labor supply. When the much less numerous members of Generation X begin to turn 65 in 2030, the native-born working age population should enter a period of recovery, although barring a big turnaround in birthrates, the long-run prognosis remains one of decline.

QOSHE - Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink - Justin Fox
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Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink

8 18
11.04.2024

In 2007, 4,316,233 babies were born in the US, just beating out the previous record of 4.3 million set at the peak of the baby boom in 1957 — that’s an approximation because not all births were recorded in national statistics at the time. It has been almost all downhill since then, with last year’s total of........

© Bloomberg


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