North Carolina: The main question for Donald Trump and Joe Biden coming out of Super Tuesday is this: where will Nikki Haley’s supporters go?
For Haley, beating Trump to the Republican nomination was always going to be tough – particularly after he won almost every primary and caucus race leading up to this contest.
Where will Nikki Haley’s supporters go now? That’s the big question for Donald Trump and Joe Biden coming out of Super Tuesday. Credit: AP, Bloomberg
But after the biggest day of the 2024 primary season, in which Trump triumphed in almost all the 15 states up for grabs, there can be little doubt about the former president’s dominance.
Haley had entered Super Tuesday hoping to stay competitive enough to give voters a chance to pick a “new generational conservative leader” who represents what remains of the Reagan-Bush vision of the Republican Party.
But with no path to the White House, the former US ambassador to the UN dropped out of the race on Wednesday morning (local time), paving the way for an explosive rematch between two men she says are too old for office and too damaging for America.
For Trump, it’s been an extraordinary political comeback. Four years after losing office in an election he still insists was rigged, the former president, who faces 91 criminal charges, has reshaped the Republican Party into a movement moulded in his image.
It is now more populist, blue-collar, grievance-fuelled and loyal than ever before. It subscribes to his view that America is broken under Biden, believes Trump’s legal woes are part of a political witch hunt, and turns a blind eye to the chaos he often sows.
But while Super Tuesday has reinforced the former president’s stronghold over his party, it has also highlighted the ongoing weaknesses he will face now that the 2024 election campaign has begun in earnest.
The primaries and caucuses have shown that a substantial group of Republican-leaning voters remain resistant to the twice-impeached, four-time-indicted former leader.
Among them are the 43 per cent of voters in New Hampshire who voted for Haley, the 40 per cent in South Carolina, the 27 per cent in Michigan, and 19 per cent in Iowa (when several other GOP candidates, including Florida governor Ron DeSantis, were still in the race).
A volunteer holds a sign outside a polling station at Oakman School in Dearborn, Michigan.Credit: Bloomberg
He also struggled with university-educated Americans, moderates and independents, including in suburbs or university precincts in critical states such as North Carolina, Michigan, and Virginia.
And exit polls revealed about one in three Republican voters believe Trump would not be fit to be president if convicted of a crime.
These are all the kinds of voters Democrats now hope will turn to Biden as he heads towards the general election in November.
“I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign,” President Biden said after Haley dropped out of the race.
But the primaries and caucuses exposed challenges for the incumbent president, too.
Voters in Super Tuesday states raised concerns about the president’s age, questioned whether he could beat Trump, and admitted that issues such as the crisis at the US-Mexico border remain liabilities.
What’s more, the coalition Biden needs to win back the White House - young people, black voters, progressives - is fraying.
This was evident as this masthead travelled to primary races across the US, to talk to voters about the 2024 election.
It was also evident in the Michigan primary race last week, where Arab-Americans and Democrats mounted a grassroots campaign encouraging people to vote “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary race to send a message to the White House.
And it was evident in Minnesota, where a similar campaign took place. With about half of the expected vote counted in that state, about 20 per cent of Democrats had marked their ballots “uncommitted”, according to Edison Research.
Overall, Biden had a good night, picking up all 15 states where he was on the ballot.
His only unexpected loss took place in the territory of American Samoa, where a little-known businessman and long-shot challenger, Jason Palmer, beat him by a handful of votes.
This will have no bearing in November, however, as the territory does not have electoral college votes in the general election.
There, the president believes Americans will swing behind him when faced with the alternative.
“Are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us backwards into the chaos, division, and darkness that defined his term in office?” he asked.
Haley had pitched the same question for months, and had built a sizeable faction of voters who shared her concerns. Those voters could make a big difference come November.
Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here.
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Andrew Mitrovica
Mort Laitner
Nikkei Editorial
Rami G Khouri
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
visit website
