Where does Scott Morrison’s time in power place him in the rankings of Australia’s 31 prime ministers?
Morrison became a polarising figure during his time in office, from daggy Dad outsider who pulled off a miracle election win to a leader who provoked visceral anger and led the Coalition to lose 19 seats and government.
Historians says it will take years to rank the prime ministership of Scott Morrison.Credit: john shakespeare
His infamous Hawaiian holiday and “I don’t hold a hose, mate” comment, his reference to wife Jenny when discussing the Brittany Higgins rape allegations, the “it’s not a race” comment about vaccines and the shortage of RATs as Australia reopened its borders all rankled Australians.
There was also the multiple ministries affair, the Robodebt scandal and the Orwellian phrase “on-water matters” that he used to avoid commenting on the turning back of asylum seeker boats.
But, as the former leader pointed out this week, there were also significant achievements: the 2019 election win, the AUKUS defence agreement, the early decision to shut Australia’s borders as part of its initial response to COVID, and significant funding for mental health which saw Australia’s suicide rate fall despite people being locked down during the pandemic.
As immigration minister, Morrison stopped the flow of asylum seeker boats to Australia, while as treasurer he delivered stages 1 and 2 of his tax plan and struck a deal with Western Australia on GST distribution (which has been criticised by the east coast states and many economists).
So where does Australia’s 30th prime minister sit in the ranks of prime ministers?
Nick Dyrenfurth, an author, historian and executive director of the Labor think tank the John Curtin research institute, who helped compile Monash University’s 2020 list of Australia’s best and worst prime ministers, argues that at least a decade must pass before Morrison’s legacy (or that of any prime minister) can be properly assessed.
That list assessed former prime ministers according to their ability to manage cabinet, leave a policy legacy, hold their parties together and maintain a relationship with voters.
It placed World War II Labor prime minister John Curtin first and Bob Hawke second, with Alfred Deakin, Ben Chifley, Robert Menzies, Paul Keating, Gough Whitlam, Andrew Fisher, John Howard and Edmund Barton rounding out the top 10.
Former Liberal prime minister William McMahon, who served for the final two years of the 23-year period of Coalition government from 1949-1972, was dead last.
Niki Savva, the author of a series of best-selling political books, columnist for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age and a former Liberal staffer to Peter Costello and John Howard, was frequently scathing of Morrison during his time in office.
In her book on the Morrison government, Bulldozed, Savva wrote that he was “the worst prime minister I have covered, and I have been writing about all of them since Gough Whitlam. He simply wasn’t up to the job.”
She told this masthead: “I stand by every word I wrote in Bulldozed.”
At the launch of Savva’s book, former Nine Network political editor Laurie Oakes said that Morrison was worse than McMahon, while University of Canberra politics professor and Saturday Paper columnist Chris Wallace says he was “easily the worst prime minister since Federation” in 1901.
But Dyrenfurth argues that Morrison achieved more than either Tony Abbott or Malcolm Turnbull.
“It’s pretty clear that Menzies, Deakin and Howard are the three outstanding non-Labor PMs. And then you have a whole lot of second-order PMs like Fraser, Bruce and Lyons.”
Dyrenfurth argues Morrison is in a third category, along with Abbott and Turnbull, but says: “I think Morrison is above both of them,” because of how he handled the initial response to COVID, the AUKUS defence agreement and for winning the 2019 election.
“Credit to him and Josh Frydenberg for massively increasing Jobseeker payments. But his weak points included gender - he did not deal well with women - and climate change.”
“The way PMs conduct themselves after they leave office is important in terms of their legacy, and Gillard has risen in people’s estimation. You look at Turnbull and Abbott, their legacy has been tarnished.”
But underscoring the debate over Morrison’s legacy, Sky News commentator and former Abbott chief of staff Peta Credlin argues “in the community, the animus that sent him packing in 2022 is still there. I would also say that within the Liberal family his legacy remains mixed, but that will change over time.”
“The debt burden from COVID, as well-intentioned as it was, sits heavily with Liberals and I think the governance overreach [the secret ministries] and the level of arrogance, the ‘I don’t hold a hose’, that has coloured the view of Liberals. He is certainly better thought of than his immediate predecessor [Turnbull] but not the guy [Abbott] who brought them into government,” she says.
Wallace argues “there was a kind of national PTSD among many voters by the time his government drew to a close”, that the AUKUS submarine deal is “more exploding cigar than legacy” and the French submarine deal should simply have been altered rather than torn up.
Monash University emeritus politics professor Paul Strangio, who helped coordinate the prime ministerial rankings project, says the fate of the AUKUS deal would help determine where Morrison stood in the ratings.
“His government’s relatively successful early management of the COVID pandemic and the legacy of AUKUS might spare him from falling below [William] McMahon and [Tony] Abbott at the bottom of the prime-ministerial heap – but avoiding that ignominy will probably be a close-run thing.”
“We don’t know much about how he ran cabinet. That can often be a black book until the cabinet papers are released [after 20 years]. Having said that, in terms of cabinet management, clearly what heavily counts against him is the secret commandeering of those portfolios.”
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.
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