As the 2024 AFL season heats up with competitive match simulation games beginning on Sunday, followed by the AFL community series, we take a look at the one area your team needs to improve to push for the premiership this season.
In it to win it: Preparations are stepping up for AFL season 2024.Credit: Artwork: Stephen Kiprillis
Stop being roadkill
Only Geelong and West Coast won fewer matches on the road than Adelaide in 2023, with the Crows winning just twice in 12 games.
If they are to push for a finals berth in 2024, they likely need at least four wins away from the cauldron that is Adelaide Oval.
Find a way to win when beaten in scores from turnovers
The Lions came within five points of a premiership, so it’s hard to be too critical in any area. However, this deep-dive statistic supplied by Champion Data will have coach Chris Fagan thinking. Yes, the Lions were the No.1 team in generating scores from stoppages, but in the six games they were outscored from turnovers by at least 10 points, they lost five times, including in the grand final. Can they find a way to minimise this impact?
Straighten up: Blues forward Harry McKay is keen to improve his goal-kicking accuracy this season.Credit: Getty
Build momentum early
The best teams typically bank wins early in the season, allowing their top players to be managed heading into September. Much has been made of the Blues having just four wins in the opening 13 rounds last year, then storming home in a flurry. And here’s a message for Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow - the Blues’ accuracy in front of goal must get better, having ranked 14th at 47.1 per cent last season. McKay’s shot at goal accuracy of 37.7 per cent was the worst of his career, and the third-worst of the top 50 in the AFL for shots at goal.
Improve hardball gets
The defending premiers have every reason to think they can go back to back, despite any concerns about the lack of a power forward. A Champion Data review of the Magpies finds few holes, but they may want to improve their hardball-get differential, ranking 17th last season. That was a surprise considering they had extractor Tom Mitchell and Taylor Adams, the latter now with Sydney, in the middle.
Back to back: The Magpies have few holes heading into a new season where they eye successive flags.Credit: Getty Images
Stop the leaks
The Bombers ranked 15th for points conceded and lost by an average margin of 38 points. That’s not a stat line of any premiership contender. Only Hawthorn and West Coast suffered heavier defeats. They also conceded the third-most points from clearances of any team, giving captain Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and ruckman Sam Draper much to think about. “We’re just focused on trying to keep building a program and an ability to play a style of footy that will hold up consistently,” Merrett said.
Get a move on
Coach Justin Longmuir will look for a happy medium next season when it comes to his team shifting gears. The Dockers were tardy starters, leading at quarter-time only six times – the equal fewest of any team. However, they won six times after trailing at the first break – the second most of any team.
Tighten up
If the Cats are to re-emerge as premiership contenders, they need a tight defence, as coach Chris Scott said last week. They had a super set-up in their 2022 premiership year, but they fell away last year, conceding 14.3 more points per game than a year earlier. They conceded a score from 45.8 per cent of opposition inside 50s – ranked 16th. This could be sheeted back to their long injury list, where, at one point, they were without most of their first-choice defence. But midfielders Patrick Dangerfield and a now-fit Cam Guthrie will be among those needing to put more pressure on opposition ball carriers.
Generate scores from turnovers
Suns president Bob East says this is the year for his club to finally deliver a breakthrough finals campaign. To do that, the Suns may need to find a way under new coach Damien Hardwick to score more from turnovers, and concede less when they turn the ball over. They ranked 15th last season in scores from turnover, and points conceded. They were also 15th for scoring differential. During his premiership era at Richmond, Hardwick’s game plan was built on winning the ball back from turnover. Can he get the Suns to buy in?
Improve scoring efficiency
The Giants finished just two points shy of a grand final, but still have work to do. Premiership teams typically finish in the top six for points scored, but the Giants were outside the top six not only for points scored, but also for shot at goal accuracy and scores per forward-50 entry.
Stop the run-ons
The Hawks are rebuilding, and finding an avenue to goal should be easier with recruits Mabior Chol and Jack Ginnivan aboard, and old hand Jack Gunston returning. However, it’s defensively where attention is needed. The Hawks conceded nine goals without a reply six times - the equal-most of any team alongside the bottom-placed West Coast. That has been noted by the Hawks’ brains trust.
New boy: Hawthorn recruit Jack Ginnivan hopes to add more punch to the Hawks’ attack this season.
Improve goalkicking accuracy
The Demons are desperate to atone for successive finals flame outs. Christian Petracca says the Demons have tinkered with their gameplan. One area in need of attention is connection in the forward half, as well as accuracy. The Demons produced the worst shot at goal accuracy (31.4 per cent) during the finals of any finalist since the measure was first recorded in 2002. Petracca’s shot at goal accuracy of just 32.2 per cent was a case in point.
Improve everything
Club great David King expects the Kangaroos to finish bottom four, but vast improvement is still expected. They need to improve across the board, from winning the ball, to attacking, and defending. They have ranked in the bottom three for disposal and contested possessions differential in each of the last three years, as well as for points scored and conceded. It’s over to you, Clarko.
Power up in defence
If Ken Hinkley is ever to deliver a flag, the Power need to stiffen up in defence. They went from being a top-four defence in 2022 to 12th last year, conceding a goal from 24.2 per cent of opposition entries – ranked 15th. “We know offensively we were pretty good right through the season. Our end of season was, obviously, a little less than what we wanted, and we were disappointed with that, but we knew we had to improve a little bit with our defensive stuff,” Hinkley said.
Put scores on the board
Once one of the more dynamic teams, the Tigers dropped three goals per game in 2023. Clearly, they weren’t helped by Tom Lynch’s season-ending injury in round four, but new coach Adem Yze wants greater dare. “We’ve got to give them the opportunity to go at the game. The best teams play with a lot of speed and with a lot of risk,” Yze said. The Tigers were also the worst side for shot at goal accuracy after ranking top four.
Watch out: Tigers’ star Tom Lynch hopes for an early season return after a serious foot injury.Credit: AFL Photos / Getty Images
Kick goals
History tells us that 18 of the last 22 premiers have ranked in the top six for points scored. The Saints, crunched in an elimination final by the Giants, were way off, ranking 15th for points scored. Sydney in 2005, when Ross Lyon was assistant, were the last team to rank in the bottom four for attack, and still win the premiership. A fit Max King will hopefully ease the scoring burden. He missed 13 games through injury last season but, when fit, averaged a career-high 2.5 goals and enjoyed the best accuracy of his career (54.9 per cent).
Rediscover their DNA
The Swans were once the kings of the stoppage. But last year only West Coast had a worse clearance differential. The Swans were also the only finalist in the negative (13th overall) in scores-from-stoppage differential. New sole skipper Callum Mills averaged half as many clearances as he did in the grand final year of 2022, while Luke Parker and James Rowbottom also dropped off in that area. It’s time for the Swans to get busy.
Improve everything
There’s a reason why the Kangaroos and Eagles finished at the foot of the ladder. That the Eagles have slipped so dramatically is still a head shaker. Their turnover and stoppage game was non-existent, while they were beaten in contested possessions by a whopping 18 per game – ranked last. Surely, that’s unacceptable for such a proud and rich club, where coaching and financial resources are not an issue.
Beat the best
Bulldogs chief executive Ameet Bains believed his club had a top-four list, but this was a team not good enough to even make the eight, finishing just adrift of September action. This was largely because they had only three wins in 10 games against top-eight teams. The Dogs need more from Rory Lobb. The star recruit averaged 0.8 goals and had a scoreboard impact of 7.6 points per game against top-eight teams, compared to 1.5 goals and 13.3 scoreboard impact points against bottom-10 teams.
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