Talking with your enemy during wartime is one of the most psychologically stressful things for a combatant to do. Haggling with the same people trying to kill you leaves a bad taste in the mouth. And yet, more times than not, talking and fighting at the same time is a necessity, both to explore possible avenues out of the war and to win back the release of hostages or soldiers in enemy hands.
Despite the rhetoric from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel also has a dialogue going with Hamas, the terrorist group that swept into southern Israel and committed the worst atrocity against the Jewish people since the Holocaust. While Israeli and Hamas officials aren’t talking to each other directly, they are using intermediaries such as Qatar to deliver messages, exchange proposals and see whether a deal over hostages is possible.
While nobody knows how many hostages Hamas has in its custody, the number is thought to be around 240 people. Many of them are civilians of all ages, from babies to senior citizens. Where those hostages are being held is also a mystery, but the Israelis suspect a good portion are housed in the labyrinth underground tunnel system Hamas has constructed in the 17 years the group has ruled Gaza.
All of this presents a problem for the tens of thousands of Israeli troops combing northern Gaza: How can Israel square an intense military offensive in a densely populated area with the goal of bringing innocent civilians back to their families alive?
It took longer than some would have liked, but Netanyahu appears to have come around to the conclusion that getting the hostages out through diplomatic means is the best way to square the circle. Up until a week or so ago, Netanyahu was highly resistant to the notion of negotiating with Hamas. But Hamas was never going to release hostages for free; captured Israelis are highly valuable for a group that, in the past, has been able to trade them for Palestinian prisoners. The most infamous case study came in 2011, when Netanyahu approved the transfer of about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to win the freedom of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas five years earlier. One of those Palestinian prisoners was Yahya Sinwar. Hamas’ top military official and the architect of the Oct. 7 assault on Israel.
Netanyahu didn’t want to repeat the episode. According to The New York Times, there was a draft agreement on the table that would have transferred 50 hostages to Israel in return for a temporary pause in Israeli airstrikes. But for a variety of reasons, including doubt that Hamas’ negotiators actually had the power to negotiate on anything, the deal died. Israel launched its ground invasion soon after.
[ Elizabeth Shackelford: The US should use its leverage with Israel to help minimize civilian harm in the war ]
The talks, however, didn’t die. Over the following weeks, rumors of a possible hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas have percolated. The terms have largely been the same: Hamas hands over the civilian hostages (Israeli troops are also held) in phases in exchange for a multiday pause in Israel’s military campaign and an increase in humanitarian aid into Gaza. U.S. officials are more optimistic about a hypothetical deal today than they have been in the past.
“Many areas of difference that previously existed have been narrowed,” deputy national security adviser Jon Finer told CBS’ “Face the Nation” program over the weekend. “We believe we are closer than we have been to reaching a final agreement.”
The outstanding question hovering over all of this is whether the technicalities of any agreement can be resolved. Ushering dozens, if not hundreds, of civilian hostages through a war zone is no easy feat. Evacuation routes need to be established, and fighting would need to stop along those routes until the process is complete. Israel is reportedly insisting on aerial surveillance to ensure the hostages are going where they need to go; Hamas is balking at such a monitoring plan.
The length of any fighting pause is also up for dispute. Hamas would obviously like the pause to be as long as possible in order to recuperate some of the military capability it has lost. Israel wants the pause to be on the short end for precisely the same reason. Enforcing any short-term truce is also going to be an impossible task. There is no third-party mediator able to pull it off. In the past, truces between Israel and Hamas lasted — until they didn’t.
Politics are also at play. Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, doesn’t have the same internal limitations as Netanyahu does. Whereas Sinwar seems to have a solid hand on the organization’s political and military wings, Netanyahu doesn’t have a solid hand on anything. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is in an unenviable position: Any decision he makes will be viewed by someone, somewhere, as the wrong one.
If he doesn’t sign a deal with Hamas, Netanyahu will feel the full weight and anger of the families who have long since grown tired of his government’s ineptitude and lack of compassion. Sign a deal, and Netanyahu risks getting hammered by his far-right coalition partners as a weakling who has caved to Hamas’ antics.
The second scenario is not hypothetical; when Netanyahu approved the daily delivery of a measly two fuel trucks into Gaza to ensure the enclave’s sewage and water systems were running, he was condemned by folks like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir as an appeaser giving aid and comfort to the terrorist enemy.
Netanyahu will have to make a judgment call. One hopes he listens to common sense instead of extremists.
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.
Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.
Daniel DePetris: The trials and tribulations of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal
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21.11.2023
Talking with your enemy during wartime is one of the most psychologically stressful things for a combatant to do. Haggling with the same people trying to kill you leaves a bad taste in the mouth. And yet, more times than not, talking and fighting at the same time is a necessity, both to explore possible avenues out of the war and to win back the release of hostages or soldiers in enemy hands.
Despite the rhetoric from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel also has a dialogue going with Hamas, the terrorist group that swept into southern Israel and committed the worst atrocity against the Jewish people since the Holocaust. While Israeli and Hamas officials aren’t talking to each other directly, they are using intermediaries such as Qatar to deliver messages, exchange proposals and see whether a deal over hostages is possible.
While nobody knows how many hostages Hamas has in its custody, the number is thought to be around 240 people. Many of them are civilians of all ages, from babies to senior citizens. Where those hostages are being held is also a mystery, but the Israelis suspect a good portion are housed in the labyrinth underground tunnel system Hamas has constructed in the 17 years the group has ruled Gaza.
All of this presents a problem for the tens of thousands of Israeli troops combing northern Gaza: How can Israel square an intense military offensive in a densely populated area with the goal of bringing innocent civilians back to their families alive?
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