It’s Iowa time.
Today brings the long-awaited, every-four-years moment in U.S. presidential politics: the Iowa caucuses.
Democratic politicians and pundits will be hyperventilating, hoping to detect some sign of Donald Trump fatigue in the caucus results. We will see, but from my perch, it looks like Trump and Iowa voters will do a lot of canoodling Monday night.
It should be a sizable victory for the former president. The polls have him leading large.
The FiveThirtyEight average of recent polls for Republican candidates has Trump at 51.3%; former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley, 17.3%; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 16.1%; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, 6.6%; and Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, at 0.4%.
If Trump receives more than half the caucus votes, his win will be hard to ignore.
Whatever the outcome, Democrats will make the case that Iowa is not representative of America’s elected. In Iowa, 83.7% of the state’s population is non-Hispanic white, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. When it comes to diversity, Iowa is not California, Florida or even Illinois.
Still, Iowa is the kickoff of the 2024 presidential election. Any football fan will attest to the unpredictability and excitement of that first play. Chicago Bears fans, think back to football star Devin Hester.
Is Trump the Hester of American politics? The Democrats hope he is Hester, the repackaged wide receiver, not the dynamic kick returner. We will be on the edge of our seats waiting to find out.
People listen to Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during a campaign event at the Chrome Horse Saloon a day before the Iowa caucuses, on Jan. 14, 2024, in Cedar Rapids. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty)
Meanwhile, Chris Christie makes a move to the sidelines. Christie, a former New Jersey governor, dropped out of the campaign last week, but he was already a nonentity in Iowa, polling at close to 4%. Criticizing Trump obviously didn’t get the man anywhere. Democrats may find his railings trenchant, but most Republicans clearly do not share the sentiment.
Christie laid all his cards on the New Hampshire table, where they remained, dead on arrival. Haley is surging in that state, whose voters cast ballots Jan. 23, and has picked up key endorsements.
At least Christie made the cut for the official unveiling of the 2024 Presidential Candidate Bobblehead Series. The new collection “will feature bobbleheads of incumbent President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie,” according to a news release.
If Haley can keep it up, we may soon be looking at a one-man and one-woman race. Then, things could get really fascinating. Trump has refused to debate his primary opponents. If he doesn’t debate Haley, Trump will be accused of being afraid of a woman. ‘Fraidy cat, Donald?
For Trump, there could be nothing worse. Remember the infamous 2020 presidential debate between then-candidates Biden and Trump, when Trump went off the rails? NPR dubbed it “maybe the worst presidential debate in American history.”
Close your eyes. Imagine Trump debating a woman who is a lot smarter and better looking than him. Do you think he will be respectful? Is the moon made of green cheese?
Open your eyes. You will see Trump bull-rushing Haley’s podium and tackling her. That is his brand of respect. That would be surely one for the history books and a surefire turnoff for the crucial base of women independent and swing voters.
The nation would once again get to appreciate Trump unshackled.
First, Haley must get there. If she comes in a solid second in Iowa, it could push DeSantis out of serious contention. Then comes New Hampshire. Would DeSantis’ supporters skitter to Trump or slide to Haley?
Will DeSantis get the message of Iowa? I suspect he will continue into New Hampshire with a skeleton crew, despite a third-place finish in Iowa.
After all, the “Never Back Down” candidate cannot have a glass jaw. A knockout with one loss seems a prophetic epitaph for a man who is as likable as a mongoose. DeSantis is the guy who picked a fight with the largest employer in his state, The Walt Disney Co., the progenitor of the world’s favorite mouse, Mickey.
Some people can get away with belligerence, i.e., Trump, but not DeSantis.
Now on to New Hampshire, whose motto is “Live Free or Die.” The stakes are high.
Laura Washington is a political commentator and longtime Chicago journalist. Her columns appear in the Tribune each Monday. Write to her at LauraLauraWashington@gmail.com.
Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.
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