In his Christmas Eve Mass address, Pope Francis cited the conflict in Gaza in lamenting “the futile logic of war.” In recent decades, he might have noted, humans have found that logic increasingly unpersuasive. But some leaders still fall victim to the fatal illusion of what they might achieve by the sheer force of arms.

Exhibit A is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who invaded Ukraine in the certainty that he could restore it to Russian rule at modest cost. Instead, his country is mired in a bloody stalemate, with more than 300,000 troops killed or wounded. He provoked Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO and induced the alliance to promise membership to Ukraine — realizing one of his worst fears.

Far from enhancing Russia’s power, Putin has exposed the shortcomings of his military while badly degrading its capacity. After nearly two years, there is no end in sight, and Russia is weaker and more isolated than before.

Ohio State University scholar John Mueller titled his 2021 book on American foreign policy “The Stupidity of War.” The U.S. amply confirmed his thesis in Afghanistan and Iraq, where grand dreams led to disaster.

But these wars were exceptions in the modern world. Until the invasion of Ukraine, Europe had enjoyed nearly 80 years of peace among states — what Mueller says was “likely........

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