Eight years ago, Donald Trump’s opponents for the Republican presidential nomination were convinced that if the field had just cleared and turned it into a two-person race, a majority of Republicans would reject him. When it finally happened during his third consecutive run for president, Republican voters made their preference clear: They want Trump.
Nikki Haley’s loss in New Hampshire on Tuesday means Trump is on a glide path to the nomination. He is in a stronger position today than any other Republican in the modern era, the first one to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary since Gerald Ford. Haley indicated she will fight on to her home state of South Carolina, which is far more Republican and conservative than New Hampshire, where she failed to win even with the support of independents. According to the most recent poll, she is losing her home state by 29 points. New Hampshire was her best and probably last chance to stop Trump.
Tuesday’s result also raises the question whether anyone could have ever defeated him in the first place. For all the countless millions spent on the Republican primary and the endless hours of cable news airtime devoted to pontificating on “lanes” to the nomination, it all seems like a pointless exercise. Even at his nadir, Trump still was getting over 40 percent support in national polls of Republican primary voters, giving him at least enough of a floor that he could survive debacles that would have crippled any other candidate. Still, his opponents ultimately decided it was too risky to criticize him by name, resulting in the same sort of paralysis that let Trump become the Republican standard bearer in the first place. His victories shouldn’t have been a surprise. What is surprising is that, for so long, so many people thought this would all go differently.
They could have been forgiven for thinking that as the wreckage was being cleared from the Capitol on January 6, 2021, when the shadow campaign for the Republican nomination had already begun. At that point, a Trump comeback looked impossible — he was kicked off Twitter and presidential hopefuls such as Haley were already showing up in Iowa. The Republican star of the year would end up being Glenn Youngkin, who won the Virginia governorship by distancing himself from Trump.
Then Trump slowly re-emerged from the political wilderness in 2022, first by using his endorsement powers to boost a slate of fellow election-denying candidates who overwhelmingly won their Republican primaries. A “red wave” of Republican victories seemed ready to sweep Democrats out of office and Trump planned to claim credit and to announce his reelection bid. Instead, he was blamed for Republicans blowing key races — Democrats actually gained a seat in the Senate — and his party only barely managed to retake the House. When it came time to announce, Trump did so in a stilted speech in his own private club at Mar-a-Lago. Things did not improve: He mostly stayed home and did little, besides joining Kanye West and a prominent white nationalist for dinner.
At the same time, Ron DeSantis emerged as a potential heir apparent to Trump. The Florida governor was given the rock star treatment by conservative media and Republican operatives, who saw the ardent fighter in the “war on woke” as representing the best of worlds, a candidate who could appeal to Trump’s base without any of the former president’s baggage.
When it came to actually running against Trump, DeSantis and others treated him like a sacred cow who they were loath to criticize as he was lapping them in the polls. Last March, when it was clear Trump would be indicted in Manhattan over paying hush money to Stormy Daniels, DeSantis pointed out the simple fact he did not have any experience “paying hush money to a porn star” — and was ferociously attacked by the right that was circling the wagons around Trump. Even Mike Pence, who based his campaign around the fact that he upheld his constitutional oath on January 6 while Trump egged on a mob that chanted “Hang Mike Pence,” was coy on whether he’d ever vote for Trump again.
Even at his lowest ebb, Trump had already received dozens of congressional endorsements and maintained his lead in polls of Republican primary voters. And, as other candidates entered the race and Trump began to face a series of criminal indictments, his lead only grew. The former incumbent didn’t even deign to participate in a single debate against his opponents, who tried to knock each other out while rarely invoking Trump’s name on stage.
Before Iowa, the field had winnowed and Trump’s lead in the state — which he had lost in 2016 — was so overwhelming that the suspense was limited to who would finish second and by how much. Trump won an absolute majority, winning 98 out of 99 counties, and crushed his foremost rival, DeSantis, by 30 points.
On Sunday, as rumors flew that DeSantis was about to drop out, Haley took the stage in Derry, New Hampshire. She again delivered what she says is her “her hard truth,” a moment where she prepares to confront her audience with the type of straight talk shared only by bold politicians who toss caution to the wind.
“I voted for Donald Trump twice. I was proud to serve America in his administration. I agree with a lot of his policies,” she begins, before delivering what voters might expect to be the fatal “but” — the caveat that makes clear that next she is going to go hard after the Republican frontrunner. “Rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him.” Then, a brief pause. “You know I’m right, chaos follows him.”
These lines are rendered against Trump in the same passive voice every time she appears on the stump, with the same wording, timing, and tone. Haley was getting what she wanted, a two-person race against Trump — a clear shot against the frontrunner in a state favorable to her where she needed to catch up — and she played this good fortune just as gingerly as she did when there was a field of a dozen.
Even after Trump confused Haley with Nancy Pelosi during an extended tirade over the weekend, she couldn’t bring herself to directly attack the septuagenarian over his age. “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election,” she said Tuesday after losing New Hampshire. “And I think it should be the Republicans that win this election.”
Haley’s restrained style matched her voters, who were wary of Trump and his antics. These were the voters who once showed up at a John McCain town hall or Mitt Romney rally. In a potential sign of trouble for Trump in the general election, many said they would not consider voting for him.
Susan Ryan had driven an hour from Strafford to see Haley. Though she had some disagreements on issues like abortion and immigration, Ryan said she just thought “we need a change and option other than Trump.” If Haley isn’t the nominee, she said didn’t think she could vote for either of the two major party candidates. “I can’t vote for Trump,” she said. “I think he’s had a chance and he needs to move on. And Biden, I think he’s too old. I don’t want to see Kamala Harris take his position.”
Afterwards, Haley stopped at a seafood restaurant where she chatted with small children and held babies. There, Paul Kleinman, an elected official from Brentwood, said he was supporting Haley both because of what she stood for and the fact that she was running against Trump. Kleinman, who said he voted for Biden in 2020, said that he simply didn’t like Trump “as a human being. The way he insults people and lies constantly.” While he wouldn’t vote for Trump this time, he was unsure if he’d back Biden. “Just have to see if there is a third party candidate who is reasonable,” he said. His concerns about the incumbent were simply about “his age and his ability to get things done.”
In contrast, Trump’s voters represented the populist turn that the party had taken under the former president. At his closing rally before the primary on Monday, supporters wore shirts professing their love for Trump and disdain for Joe Biden. (One man’s said “Fuck Joe Biden and everyone who voted for him.”) They were thrilled by his rhetoric and approached him more as fans view a celebrity than voters view a politician.
The event started late after Trump made an appearance in an overflow room, which was the hotel’s shuttered bar. There, he briefly held court from behind a barrier as he was bombarded with shouts of “we love you!” and “Donald!” When he finally appeared in the crowded hotel basement, he gave a typical rally speech laced with attacks on Haley. He derided her as making “an unholy alliance” with “globalists and radical left communists” to try to defeat him. Before the former president spoke, his son, Donald Trump Jr., said Haley was “a puppet and dancing monkey” for her donors and said she was Hillary Clinton dressed as a conservative. He told the crowd that “she’s going to send your kids to go off and die and she couldn’t care less.”
Jeremy Donato drove nearly two hours from Berlin, up at the state’s northern tip, to see Trump. He said he supported him because Trump “is gonna secure the border. Get rid of that communist in the White House right now; that corrupt Joe Biden, who’s bought and paid for by China, is so crappy, he ought to be in jail.” He thought Haley “should just drop out when she ain’t gonna win. She’s corrupt like the rest.” And if she somehow became nominee, he would never vote for her. “She don’t have my back,” he said. Matt Roman, who lived in nearby Meredith, echoed this. He’s always been for Trump because “he wants what’s best for us.” Not only did he think Haley was “a RINO” and “a Democrat,” he said he just simply “didn’t like her vibes.”
On Tuesday night, Trump used his victory speech as much to harangue against Haley as he did to celebrate an historic win and thank the voters who propelled him to it. He even introduced former rival Vivek Ramaswamy to deliver a one-minute diatribe against Haley. “What we saw tonight was America First over America Last” said the failed presidential candidate as George Santos excitedly shook a Trump flag in the audience. As Trump said, “this is not your typical victory speech,” but nothing about this campaign has been typical.
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