The first contest of the 2024 presidential race is just days away, as a snow-covered Iowa prepares for the state’s Republican caucuses on Monday. But since Donald Trump is expected to win the caucuses by a wide margin, the only real contest will be for second place, between the remaining contenders Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Below are live updates on the latest developments in the final days of campaigning.
The Washington Post’s Dan Balz looks ahead:
The fact that the battle for second is as much the focus of attention as anything else speaks volumes about the state of the Republican Party in the Trump era. That’s another reason this isn’t a normal pre-caucus weekend. Maybe there will be a surprise. Some candidates have surged near the end of Iowa campaigns — Rick Santorum in 2012 is the classic case — but it would take a historic rise for Haley or DeSantis to threaten Trump’s lead.
Still, Iowa will offer the first voter-based results of Republican sentiment after many months of polls and punditry. Several metrics will define Monday’s results, beginning with the performance by the front-runner. Trump, who has campaigned far less in Iowa than his rivals, hopes to break the record for the biggest margin of victory by a Republican in the caucuses by besting Bob Dole’s 12-point win over Pat Robertson in 1988.
Beyond that, Trump could become the first Republican to win an outright majority of the vote in a multicandidate caucus.
The final pre-caucus edition of the famous “gold standard” Des Moines Register poll from J. Ann Selzer will be released at 8 p.m. Saturday night. The stakes are a little higher this time, but not because of the GOP race: the final 2020 edition of the poll never came out before that year’s Democratic caucuses thanks to a catastrophic snafu. Noted Politico on Saturday morning:
The poll isn’t just notable for its historical accuracy — it can also fuel the momentum of a late-surging candidate or pile on a flagging one. Selzer’s poll showed former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) gaining steam in the final days before the 2012 caucuses, and he ultimately overtook Mitt Romney and won.
That’s a key part of the poll’s influence: Caucuses aren’t primaries. Momentum and organization have always been the keys to victory — or at least outperforming expectations. …
It’s also another test for Selzer and the polling profession at large. Pollsters have struggled to measure Trump’s support, and this year’s primaries could offer clues about whether they’ve figured out how to reach his backers.
Nikki Haley closes out her second of three events in Iowa today saying: “if you caucus for me on Monday I promise you that our best days are yet to come.” pic.twitter.com/R1AbxTeQji
Ben Jacobs reports from Iowa:
Almost immediately after Trump lost reelection, [Nikki Haley] began a shadow campaign for the White House and started stumping in Iowa in 2021. The campaign has been defined by an almost methodical vagueness that has let her steadily persist while other hyped-up challengers to Trump have either given up, like Tim Scott, or stumbled like DeSantis. The result has made her the default candidate of Republican voters least favorable to Trump, who are more like Paul Ryan acolytes than Never Trumpers.
That wing of the party resides in places like Ankeny, a sprawling new development designed as a walkable community complete with an ersatz downtown — sports bar, video-game bar, bowling alley — for those who want nightlife without the big-city thrills of Des Moines. It could be any prosperous suburb in the country packed with college-educated, white-collar voters. But it’s in Iowa and is unlike much of the rest of the state, which is aging, rural, and blue collar — in other words, Trump country. In 2016, Marco Rubio was jokingly dubbed “the Mayor of Ankeny” for the amount of time he spent there, winning it handily in the caucuses, but he finished third place behind Trump, who finished second, and Ted Cruz, who finished first. Then as now, there are not enough places like Ankeny for an establishment Republican to win the state outright. Of course, since then, the party has trended further away from the polite suburbanites who politely clapped for Haley rather fervently waving their sign and toward the blue-collar voters who line up for hours to see Trump speak and remain standing long after he takes the podium.
Monday will set the record for the coldest Iowa caucus ever. >> pic.twitter.com/N2JFuoeksj
There’s been speculation that the possibly record cold temperatures in Iowa on Monday could affect turnout for the caucuses. On Friday, Intelligencer’s Ed Kilgore wrote about the concerns:
It’s important to remember that marginal voters — the kind of people most likely to skip voting if it’s inconvenient or uncomfortable — don’t generally attend caucuses, which require a significant weeknight time commitment, in any event. …
[W]hatever the weather, the candidates with the best caucus turnout organizations are likely to have a turnout advantage. In Iowa this year, that means Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. If any candidate is going to be hurt by a drop-off in participation by more casual voters, it’s probably Nikki Haley, though she may have enough momentum to edge DeSantis anyway.
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Final Countdown to the GOP Iowa Caucuses: Live Updates
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14.01.2024
The first contest of the 2024 presidential race is just days away, as a snow-covered Iowa prepares for the state’s Republican caucuses on Monday. But since Donald Trump is expected to win the caucuses by a wide margin, the only real contest will be for second place, between the remaining contenders Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Below are live updates on the latest developments in the final days of campaigning.
The Washington Post’s Dan Balz looks ahead:
The fact that the battle for second is as much the focus of attention as anything else speaks volumes about the state of the Republican Party in the Trump era. That’s another reason this isn’t a normal pre-caucus weekend. Maybe there will be a surprise. Some candidates have surged near the end of Iowa campaigns — Rick Santorum in 2012 is the classic case — but it would take a historic rise for Haley or DeSantis to threaten Trump’s lead.
Still, Iowa will offer the first voter-based results of Republican sentiment after many months of polls and punditry. Several metrics will define Monday’s results, beginning with the performance by the front-runner. Trump, who has campaigned far less in Iowa than his rivals, hopes to break the record for the biggest margin of victory by a Republican in the caucuses by besting Bob Dole’s 12-point win over Pat Robertson in........
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