Late on September 9, I spent roughly an hour at the newish Wegman’s at the Brooklyn Navy Yard, the one surrounded by a big parking lot and empty office space, and came away with a bill that topped $300 for a single week’s worth of food — $319.32 exactly. Never before had I paid so much money for food that my wife and I would have to cook ourselves. Granted, this was for a family of four and covered all of our meals. In fact, we’d cut out going to restaurants, buying lunches, and getting takeout entirely. But half the family was under 3 years old then, and it wasn’t like I was buying truffle oils. There would have been no red meat, very few prepared foods, a lot of beans. I remember thinking that this was a one-off fluke, the result of pricier staples and condiments that I’d had to buy all at once. But then it happened again. On October 5, I spent $340.34. Who could afford this? We needed to change. There is no produce so fresh to justify this amount of money. By the next month, I’d be haggling for street parking a few blocks from Trader Joe’s on Atlantic Avenue. It was a pain but worth it. My first bill: $105.90 — about 70 percent lower than that giant October bill.

On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block a merger agreement that would tie up Albertsons and Kroger, a $24.6 billion deal that would make for one of the largest grocery chains in the country. “There are still too many corporations in America ripping people off: price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation,” President Biden said earlier this month. The suit comes at an auspicious time. Three years ago next month, the first signs of this era of high inflation, and general unaffordability, started to appear. By now, it’s clear that when most people talk about rising costs, the first examples are usually something in the supermarket. There is no doubt that grocery bills are higher now than they were prior to the pandemic since, well, just about everything is. But recently, the debate over how much higher has taken a life of its own, as inflation spiked more than expected last month and the cost of eating anything anywhere feels increasingly unaffordable.

First, the data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of groceries has risen by 25.2 percent since February 2020. According to BLS data, you’d have to go back to the 1970s to see that kind of a jump in so short a time span. Not only is this higher than overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, but wages have lagged behind these costs, making the grocery bill not just larger in terms of dollars, but also in the chunk of people’s spending. The reasons for this abound. There are labor shortages, avian flus, and crop-killing weather. And then there’s so-called greedflation — when companies take advantage of inflation elsewhere to fatten their profits. One of the reasons why the FTC sued to block the Albertsons-Kroger agreement is the concern that this merger would continue to hike prices as food companies have been doing for years.

Whatever the reason, people are paying more for food now than they have in 30 years, according to The Wall Street Journal — about 11.4 percent of their disposable personal income. But look closer and the measure isn’t exactly as clean as it’s made out to be. Yes, the total bills are skyrocketing. But some of that rise stems from higher prices at restaurants, which relate, at least in part, to the unsustainable economics of the food-delivery companies. Spending on groceries, when it’s measured as a percentage of a shopper’s bank account, has increased, but only to around the level of where it was in 2013, according to data from the Department of Agriculture.

Over the weekend, New York Times columnist and Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman argued that there is a silver lining when it comes to the cost of groceries. Yes, the prices have gone up, he argued on X, but they’ve largely been the same for the past few months.

Amazing how much mail and comments I get insisting that grocery prices have doubled and are still soaring. They haven't and they aren't. pic.twitter.com/gQRdVDuiGR

This was not a popular take on the internet. In fact, I first became aware of Krugman’s tweet when another guy, who was retweeted nearly twice as much as Krugman in the ensuing exchange, set out to debunk the economist. Through the looking glass of X, Krugman’s tweet became a referendum on prices versus spending — that is, was the BLS measuring the actual cost of food, or was it a survey of what people were choosing to pay for? Krugman’s critics insisted it was the latter and that there was a sleight of hand going on in the data to disguise how much higher prices actually are. Look at his replies and you’ll see people complaining of having to buy cheaper types of meat or avoid buying one kind of product over another. It turns out, though, that the anti-Krugman internet was wrong and the prices, in fact, reflect what is on the supermarket shelf.

The kerfuffle was apparently enough for Krugman write a short post expounding on his views — which entailed, essentially, pointing at a chart and saying, “This is not wrong.” “Anyone who writes about declining inflation receives a lot of hostile comments that run roughly like this: ‘You elite types don’t know what it’s really like for ordinary Americans! Grocery prices have doubled and are still soaring!’” is the first sentence of his post. (He also cites Donald Trump saying that the price of groceries has gone up five times since Biden took office, which — if taken to mean a five-fold increase — is obviously not true). Nobody’s saying that there haven’t been outliers, especially when beef (up 10.7 percent) and orange juice concentrate (up about 29 percent) have spiked so much. But the overall cost of most things has risen by less than 3 percent throughout 2023, according to the BLS — about what you would expect when inflation is lower.

There is good news coming. According to the Department of Agriculture, the cost of groceries is set to fall this year by a modest 0.4 percent. That’s not enough on its own to justify a splurge, but it could be a windfall considering that wages are expected to rise 4 percent this year. The anecdotes Krugman responded to are just that — one-off stories, just like my $340 bill. But if people want to keep their grocery bills lower, the answer might just be in shopping around.

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QOSHE - How Much More Expensive Is Food Now, Really? - Kevin T. Dugan
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How Much More Expensive Is Food Now, Really?

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27.02.2024

Late on September 9, I spent roughly an hour at the newish Wegman’s at the Brooklyn Navy Yard, the one surrounded by a big parking lot and empty office space, and came away with a bill that topped $300 for a single week’s worth of food — $319.32 exactly. Never before had I paid so much money for food that my wife and I would have to cook ourselves. Granted, this was for a family of four and covered all of our meals. In fact, we’d cut out going to restaurants, buying lunches, and getting takeout entirely. But half the family was under 3 years old then, and it wasn’t like I was buying truffle oils. There would have been no red meat, very few prepared foods, a lot of beans. I remember thinking that this was a one-off fluke, the result of pricier staples and condiments that I’d had to buy all at once. But then it happened again. On October 5, I spent $340.34. Who could afford this? We needed to change. There is no produce so fresh to justify this amount of money. By the next month, I’d be haggling for street parking a few blocks from Trader Joe’s on Atlantic Avenue. It was a pain but worth it. My first bill: $105.90 — about 70 percent lower than that giant October bill.

On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block a merger agreement that would tie up Albertsons and Kroger, a $24.6 billion deal that would make for one of the largest grocery chains in the country. “There are still too many corporations in America ripping people off: price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation,” President Biden said earlier this month. The suit comes at an auspicious time. Three years ago next month, the first signs of this era of high........

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