In the 1980 election Ronald Reagan asked the blockbuster political question that would obliterate Jimmy Carter’s candidacy. “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” In the 2024 election, no doubt that question will be resurrected by Republicans.
But let’s reverse that. Suppose Donald Trump won in 2020. Would Americans be worse or better off than four years ago under a second Trump term? Of course, 3/4 of Americans would be pleased that neither Trump nor Joe Biden would be on the ticket in 2024 unless Trump was attempting to repeal the term limiting 22nd Amendment. Assuming that was not the case, a good question is who would have been the Democratic and Republican candidates in 2024? One wonders.
Would Americans be worse or better off than four years ago under a second Trump term?
Answering the better or worse-off question is speculative because Trump lost. But had Trump won, what might he have done over the past four years that could provide any answers no matter how speculative? The first crisis was the Afghan withdrawal in the summer of 2021. Remember it was Trump who negotiated the agreement with the Taliban in Doha without the presence of the elected Afghan government headed by President Ashraf Ghani.
Given the faults and flaws of that agreement which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did sign (allowing that privilege to go to the negotiator, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad) and that the same military leadership would have been in place under Trump as well as Biden, why would a disastrous withdrawal been avoided? Biden extended the deadline. Had the original withdrawal date set by Trump been met, how would chaos not have ensued because the earlier evacuation would have left less time for coordinated planning? Indeed, the withdrawal could have been even worse.
Second, Trump would have inherited a Democratic Congress. How any legislation critical to dealing with the economic damage done by the COVID pandemic and rebuilding the infrastructure would have been passed or signed into law is difficult to imagine. Most likely, even worse gridlock would have persisted. Without the legislation passed under Biden, it is likely that the economy would have not grown or that a recession would have been avoidable.
Third is the border issue. Trump’s promise to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it would still have been nonsensical. The Remain in Mexico policy depended on Mexican compliance. And Mexico would not and did not. Further, many of the executive orders signed by Trump and Biden on immigration on the border prompted lawsuits that certainly would have at least delayed or prevented any action. It is hard to see, despite Trump’s promises, how the border issues would have been resolved.
Fourth, how would Trump have handled Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine? Trump had already been burned by his interactions with Ukraine. His “perfect” phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in part led to articles of impeachment passed by the House. His derisive attitude towards NATO remained.
So would Trump have supported Ukraine at all or to the level that the Biden administration has? And how would Trump have dealt with NATO and the EU on both Ukrainian aid and membership? It is not clear he would have even though he asserted he would end that war in twenty-four hours. Indeed, the only way that was possible was through a Ukrainian surrender.
Fifth, how would Trump have coped with October 7th and the subsequent Islamist militant attacks against US forces in the Middle East and the Houthis strikes on Red Sea shipping? Advocates would say the assassination of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq would have suggested that Trump’s responses would have been forceful. But that killing led to a substantial increase in Irani and proxy missile attacks on US forces. And after Iran downed a US Reaper drone in international waters, Trump called off the retaliatory strike.
Sixth, would rivals such as Nikki Haley arise to challenge Trump for the nomination in 2020? And last, would Trump have been charged with 91 indictments? Or would he have self-pardoned or shut the cases down? All this is speculation of course.
However, before addressing the question of “Are you better off today than four years ago under Joe Biden,” reconsider if Trump had been president. Given the seemingly irreparable divisions between the two parties, where one stands politically is how that question might be answered.
But suspend these realities for a minute. That answer might help determine how independents and undecideds might vote in 2024.
The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.
Suppose Trump Won In 2020
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10.02.2024
In the 1980 election Ronald Reagan asked the blockbuster political question that would obliterate Jimmy Carter’s candidacy. “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” In the 2024 election, no doubt that question will be resurrected by Republicans.
But let’s reverse that. Suppose Donald Trump won in 2020. Would Americans be worse or better off than four years ago under a second Trump term? Of course, 3/4 of Americans would be pleased that neither Trump nor Joe Biden would be on the ticket in 2024 unless Trump was attempting to repeal the term limiting 22nd Amendment. Assuming that was not the case, a good question is who would have been the Democratic and Republican candidates in 2024? One wonders.
Would Americans be worse or better off than four years ago under a second Trump term?
Answering the better or worse-off question is speculative because Trump lost. But had Trump won, what might he have done over the past four years that could provide any answers no matter how speculative? The first crisis was the Afghan withdrawal in the summer of 2021. Remember it was Trump who negotiated the agreement with the Taliban in Doha without the presence........
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