Speculation about what happens in 2024 should be a nice parlor game that on December 31st will reveal either brilliant luck or stupendous stupidity. The outlook however is grim. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will remain unfinished business regardless of whether the fighting has stopped or not. The post-war situations in both are laden with potential catastrophe.
The political forecast in America is for bitter conditions. While a significant number of Americans will dissent, Donald Trump is unfit for any office in government except possibly base commander at Guantanamo Bay prison. President Joe Biden is regarded by many Americans as too old with a running mate who is highly unqualified to assume the presidency in the worst case.
Trump has vowed a campaign of “retribution,” whatever that means. Like so many of his statements such as “build a wall and have Mexico pay for it” that go nowhere, in this case, Donald has accumulated enough knowledge in his first term to make him truly dangerous. In a second term, should he win, he might carry out these threats and vendettas. Trump has also vowed to levy tariffs not limited to China, probably provoking a trade war that could send America back into recession or worse. Trump either never learned or has forgotten Economics 101 as taught at the Wharton School.
Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. The only way that is possible is if he gives Vladimir Putin a carte blanche.
Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. The only way that is possible is if he cuts off all aid to Kyiv and gives Vladimir Putin carte blanche. About China, he will not necessarily see Taiwan as many in his party do as a line in the sand to stop Chinese aggression. Unlike Richard Nixon who went to China, Trump will face serious opposition from Republicans in Congress who are less worried about the wrath of Donald and being primaried – unless Trump moves to change the Constitution to give him a third term.
About domestic politics and the panoply of issues from environment, debt, social, cultural, reproductive and transgender rights, Trump is the only bull who brings with him his china shop to disrupt. Chaos may be the best case. And the unstated but crucial question is who will succeed him in 2028 if the Constitution is not altered?
Joe Biden is running using a rearview mirror. The president is trying to convince an unconvinced electorate that Bidenomics is an economic elixir. As long as food, gas and home prices are high, this is a fool’s errand. And, yes, all could turn around just before the election. But would that be too late?
2024 however is not without opportunity. For someone with spine and courage, the Israeli Prime Minister must be reined in. Despite Israeli platitudes about waging a selective offensive, that is nonsense. Dumb Mk 82 iron bombs, of which a huge quantity have been expended on Gaza, are as precise as using a baseball bat to kill flies. If disease breaks out in Gaza as the UN predicts given the dearth of food, clean water and medical support, the death toll could reach six figures.
As George H. W. Bush did, American support must be linked to Israeli conduct of the war and more importantly what happens when the fighting stops. Yes, that may force much of American Jewry to abandon Biden and thus allow a Trump win. That is an impossible choice to make. However, if Biden acts now, he will have at least nine months to reconcile with that and other communities.
China must not be made into an enemy. One of the few areas on which both sides of the aisle in Congress agree is that China is “the pacing threat.” Why? This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. There are smarter ways than confrontation to skin the Chinese cat.
Biden must abandon the rearview mirror for a forward-looking vision. He must show what Bidenomics will do for Americans in 2024 and not what it has done. That argument is as dead as doornail. But why Joe cannot do that is baffling.
Last, Russia must be part of a post-war Ukraine world. We did that during the Cold War with the USSR which was our most dangerous and major threat. While Biden labelled Putin a “war criminal,” we were not kind in how we described Messers Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev.
Can Trump change and shed his capacity for disruption and destruction? Will Biden look ahead and not behind? On that much of how 2024 turns out depends.
The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.
What Will Be: What Could Be in 24
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08.01.2024
Speculation about what happens in 2024 should be a nice parlor game that on December 31st will reveal either brilliant luck or stupendous stupidity. The outlook however is grim. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will remain unfinished business regardless of whether the fighting has stopped or not. The post-war situations in both are laden with potential catastrophe.
The political forecast in America is for bitter conditions. While a significant number of Americans will dissent, Donald Trump is unfit for any office in government except possibly base commander at Guantanamo Bay prison. President Joe Biden is regarded by many Americans as too old with a running mate who is highly unqualified to assume the presidency in the worst case.
Trump has vowed a campaign of “retribution,” whatever that means. Like so many of his statements such as “build a wall and have Mexico pay for it” that go nowhere, in this case, Donald has accumulated enough knowledge in his first term to make him truly dangerous. In a second term, should he win, he might carry out these threats and vendettas. Trump has also vowed to levy tariffs not........
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