Recent months have seen tensions along Pakistan’s western borders rise to levels unparalleled in decades. While Pakistan continues to employ the classic carrot and stick formula with its North-Western neighbour, Afghanistan, an unprovoked and unprecedented Iranian strike against targets well within Pakistani territory was what complicated things along the otherwise calm South-Western stretch. Pakistan responded with retaliatory air strikes against carefully selected targets in an operation that was executed professionally and titled in crafty Persian jargon. While both countries did agree to restore normalcy, it is well known that with the equilibrium once disturbed, the old normal is now as good as dead and the only thing that can be had is a new and cautious normal. Although it remains to be seen how things move forward with Iran, what has changed significantly after these strikes is Pakistan’s likely approach towards future threats from its West. Pakistan’s air strikes against terrorist hideouts inside Afghan territory earlier this month provided testament to the notion that the equilibrium to Pakistan’s west has indeed been disturbed and the future might be entirely in contrast with the past. The idea that in an event where Pakistan went to war with India, Afghanistan would serve as its backyard and Iran would provide moral and diplomatic support as it did in the past now seems well past its sell-by date.
Among many questions that arise from the transition of Pakistan’s west from being a resting shoulder to being a multi-front hostile border, the leading ones remain: why did it happen and how to get out of this mess?
Pakistan’s recent trouble along its western border, like most of the woes that it has faced ever since its inception, stems from its unstable economy. An unstable economy has perpetually enslaved the country’s foreign policy to its economic needs. As a result, it has always preferred to take positions that ensure urgent inflow of US Dollars to avoid the ever-imminent threat of an economic default instead of setting long-term foreign policy goals. The passive support extended to the US against the USSR and later becoming a direct belligerent by training jihadists at the climax of the Cold War only to turn about on your heels to wage the anti-jihadist banner in the same battleground after little more than a decade are manifestations of not a foreign policy but a policy of making quick money in desperate times.
Pakistan may have masterminded the Taliban revolution and its military men like General Hameed Gul and Colonel Imam might have rightfully accredited themselves with having fathered the Taliban, but the feeling that the Taliban, after their return to power in Afghanistan, have betrayed Pakistan is largely misplaced. The generation of Taliban that owed its existence to Pakistan is either dead or defunct. There is little reason for newer generations of Afghans, specifically the Taliban, to view Pakistan as a friend. They are more likely to view Pakistan, in hindsight, as the neighbour who fueled the war with the USSR and later acted partisan in the civil war. Pakistan’s betrayal of the Taliban post 9/11 is a more recent, vivid and lasting memory in the minds of today’s Afghans, who now know that their kin only served as cannon fodder in the proxy wars. It is time Pakistan came to terms with the reality that the Afghan Taliban do not owe us anymore and that we need to come up with workable solutions instead of gimmicks like having morning tea in Kabul Serena.
With the equilibrium once disturbed, the old normal is now as good as dead and the only thing that can be had is a new and cautious normal.
A partial role is also played by Pakistan’s relevance on the global stage. Why would a war-torn country bet against a rising economic giant like India and choose to side with a neighbour that is itself on the brink of default? The entire who-is-who of the world stage flocking to the very recent Ambani wedding in India should be enough to give us an idea of the extent of India’s global influence. Pakistan may wield its threat of expelling the Afghan refugees settled in Pakistan but what happens if India manages to bind in a formal alliance the states of Iran and Afghanistan? Would Pakistan still be making that threat from a position of strength?
Pakistan needs to realize that while pride and honour are indeed virtues, ego is not and that the first step towards rectification is admission of error. Our policymakers need to learn that having nothing but military power makes one as vulnerable as having no military power at all. We need to learn that to have a credible voice among nations, one needs to set long-term goals and stay true to them. Pakistan needs to build a stronger economy, shun foreign dependency and take up long-term goals that encompass building a legacy of taking principled positions on global issues including terrorism.
One might recall that soon after attaining nuclear capability, Pakistan proudly proclaimed that its nuclear arsenal was the Islamic Bomb that threatened the existence of India and Israel. Today, as India’s GDP surpasses that of Great Britain and Israel continues to bomb Palestine and Lebanon, Pakistan treads carefully a policy of neutrality lest it should anger the Western powers and end up getting its IMF bailout package suspended.
Pakistan has never been and arguably might never be friendly to India. Recent years have seen our investment in a Taliban-led Afghanistan go to waste. Escalation with Iran has added yet another to our list of troubled borders. Things seem to be coming full circle as the most recent terrorist attack against Chinese engineers working in Pakistan has caused the Chinese to announce a cease work on the mega project. If our last-standing friend; China, gives up on us, would we have anyone left in our corner?
Pakistan needs a holistic revamp of its policy. The modern world belongs to economies first and armies later. Pakistan needs to build a stronger economy and shun militancy. Instead of pointing fingers outwards, we need to set up our own house to attract serious investment.
We must not forget that the foundation of Pakistan rests on ethno-lingual and sectarian fault lines. Any long-term conflict with Iran or Afghanistan might trigger a sense of alienation among religious sects or ethnicities which might not represent the majority but account for large minorities of an already polarized society. With major developments on the global stage daily, Pakistan seems to be running out of time. A major introspection involving all stakeholders is the only way forward.
The writer is a veteran journalist based in Islamabad. He writes on social, political, economic, defence and strategic developments across the South Asian region. He can be reached through email at zm.journalist@gmail.com
Pakistan’s Wild West
14
0
31.03.2024
Recent months have seen tensions along Pakistan’s western borders rise to levels unparalleled in decades. While Pakistan continues to employ the classic carrot and stick formula with its North-Western neighbour, Afghanistan, an unprovoked and unprecedented Iranian strike against targets well within Pakistani territory was what complicated things along the otherwise calm South-Western stretch. Pakistan responded with retaliatory air strikes against carefully selected targets in an operation that was executed professionally and titled in crafty Persian jargon. While both countries did agree to restore normalcy, it is well known that with the equilibrium once disturbed, the old normal is now as good as dead and the only thing that can be had is a new and cautious normal. Although it remains to be seen how things move forward with Iran, what has changed significantly after these strikes is Pakistan’s likely approach towards future threats from its West. Pakistan’s air strikes against terrorist hideouts inside Afghan territory earlier this month provided testament to the notion that the equilibrium to Pakistan’s west has indeed been disturbed and the future might be entirely in contrast with the past. The idea that in an event where Pakistan went to war with India, Afghanistan would serve as its backyard and Iran would provide moral and diplomatic support as it did in the past now seems well past its sell-by date.
Among many questions that arise from the transition of Pakistan’s west from being a resting shoulder to being a multi-front hostile border, the leading ones remain: why did it happen and how to get out of this mess?
Pakistan’s recent trouble along its western border, like most of........
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