AS we continue to reflect on the outcomes of Budget 2024, it’s safe to say that it was certainly a budget with the looming elections in mind.
This can be seen through the various benefits that were given out, with probably the best example being represented by the Government’s proposal to increase welfare payments by €12 a week compared to Sinn Féin’s alternative proposal to increase it by €15 a week.
Despite this, Budget 2024 has clearly signified the start of the road to the next election.
In the last few months, one constituency that has witnessed major changes more than most is that of Cork East.
The constituency has elected four TDs since 1981, following the Electoral (Amendment) Act 1980, and its current TDs are Pat Buckley of Sinn Féin, James O’Connor of Fianna Fáil, Seán Sherlock of the Labour Party and David Stanton of Fine Gael.
The 2020 General Election saw Buckley being elected exceeding the quota of 10,909 with 12,587 votes on the first count, which was then followed by the election of Sherlock with 11,273 votes, Stanton with 10,309 and O’ Connor with 9,731, all being deemed elected on count eight.
Since 1981, the constituency has seen the election of a Fine Gael TD to Dáil Éireann in every general election. Fianna Fáil boast a similar record in the constituency, however, they missed out on a seat in Cork East in the 2011 General Election.
Despite the dominance of the civil war parties in the constituency, another distinctive feature of Cork East’s voting patterns in these elections is the presence of the Sherlocks. Between Joe and his son Seán, a Sherlock has contested every general election in the constituency since 1981, being elected in nine out of the 12 elections contested.
Changing Boundaries
A number of constituencies have been altered following the Electoral Commission’s report and Cork East has been one of those majorly affected. As a result, this has seen the transfer of three divisions from the constituency to Cork North-Central and a further five divisions to Cork North-West.
This has had major implications on Cork East as the constituency has lost territory, most notably three divisions around Mallow. Seán Sherlock a native of Mallow has alluded to this change playing a factor in his decision to not contest the next election.
This change is sure to have an impact on the next election with the only saving grace for the region being that the Cork East constituency retains its four seats.
New Faces and the Return of Old Ones?
In the 2020 General Election, Cork East saw the re-election of Pat Buckley for his second term, Seán Sherlock secured his fourth win at the polls and David Stanton returned for his sixth term as a TD for Cork East. There was also a surprise victory for newcomer James O’Connor, who defeated fellow Fianna Fáil member and incumbent Kevin O’Keefe.
However, a change looks like it could be on the horizon as Sherlock has announced he will not be contesting the next general election which leaves his seat up for grabs. This announcement follows that of Stanton’s.
This poses a huge problem for the Labour Party in the constituency as even when the party were performing poorly in the polls at a national level, Sherlock maintained his seat and popular support within Cork East.
Additionally, the loss of Stanton as a candidate strikes another blow to Fine Gael who have already lost the likes of John Paul Phelan and Michael Creed heading into the next election. This presents problems for the party in Cork East, as their second candidate in the 2020 elections saw Pa O’Driscoll eliminated at count six with 4,974 votes, well shy of the 10,909 quota required.
While the next election promises to usher in new faces for Cork East, it is likely to feature the return of some old ones. For one, Pat Buckley of Sinn Féin is likely to retain his seat as many commentators suggest a situation where the party wins upwards of 70 seats.
On the other hand, one could suggest that Fianna Fáil is likely to see the return of Kevin O’Keeffe to contest the next election after missing out on his seat by 653 votes to fellow party candidate James O’Connor, which potentially leads to another question within the Fianna Fáil camp regarding inter-party competition.
Conclusion
Many commentators have suggested a landslide victory for Sinn Féin at the next election and that claim is difficult to dispute.
The 2020 figures for Cork East alone suggest it could have elected more candidates if they had run more as seen through Pat Buckley being elected on the first count exceeding the quota by 1,678 votes. This is a mistake the party is unlikely to repeat.
The loss of Seán Sherlock strikes a major blow to Labour, who are likely to lose their grasp of Cork East. Additionally, Fine Gael will struggle to replace Stanton who has been a presence in the region since 1997 and leaves one to ponder whether that perfect record of electing a TD at each election in the constituency is in danger.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil faces an interesting challenge as inter-party competition is sure to be present between its candidates in Cork East.
In conclusion, the next general election promises to display a number of changes in Cork East as its constituents brace themselves for change.
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