Chrystia Freeland's declaration of victory rings hollow. Canadians need to fully understand what happened
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s fall economic statement, while burdened with mounting debt and continuing economic risk, was above all a Liberal declaration of victory over the COVID-19 pandemic. While those were not her exact words, the repeated theme emerged each time the word pandemic appeared in the text of the 130-page statement. In her Commons address Freeland raised a triumphant fist. “Compared to before the pandemic, I can proudly say that over a million more Canadians are employed today.”
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Other declarations run through the fiscal document. Canada’s rate of fiscal consolidation “since the depths of the pandemic” has been the fastest in the G7. Inflation-adjusted household disposable income has risen by eight per cent “compared to before the pandemic.” And “housing starts are above pre-pandemic levels.”
The effect and objective of such claims is to establish an underlying but unspoken conclusion: Canada’s COVID-19 policies, from health-care measures to fiscal extravagance, monetary expansions and economic lockdowns may have been painful but, hey, they must be seen as a success.
This is no way to approach the history of Canada’s response to the COVID pandemic. Indeed, that history has mostly been buried and lost in Canada, as it has in most of the world. The National Post’s Chris Selley captured the let’s-bury-history approach. Most governments, he wrote last July, “are quite clearly eager to turn the page on COVID-19 immediately. They don’t want an inquiry, lest they wind up looking bad.”
Some national and regional inquiries have been launched, including the current COVID inquiry in the United Kingdom, which has turned into a public political circus that puts former prime minister Boris Johnson along with a parade of officials, scientists and bureaucrats (although mostly politicians) on display as ignorant and confused fools. The circus continued this week with critical references to current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who once allegedly said “just let people die.”
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The U.K. inquiry, a one-person panel under Baroness Heather Hallett, has predictably split the views of observers. Supporting the effort is The Guardian. “It is true that Lady Hallett’s work is proceeding at a stately pace. Her final report is not expected before 2026. But she is inquiring into the biggest nationwide trauma and the state’s most significant domestic policy blunder of modern times.”
Less receptive of the inquiry are writers for The Spectator, who have labelled it “The COVID farce” and argue that the real issues are not being tackled. “We need a COVID inquiry — but this isn’t it,” wrote Carl Heneghan, director of Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. Heneghan summarized a perspective that applies globally, but especially in Canada. “Lockdown was the most disruptive policy in British peacetime history, with huge ramifications for our health, children’s education and the economy. At the time, lockdown theory was new and untested: there was no data around it. Now we have data. This is an opportunity for the inquiry to gather evidence and ask whether lockdown and other interventions actually worked.”
In Alberta last week, a six-member provincial COVID panel headed by Preston Manning and appointed in January by Premier Danielle Smith delivered a 100-page report filled with more than 90 policy recommendations.
The panel’s objective was to review legislation and processes pursued in the province during the pandemic and make recommendations. But the scope of the inquiry was limited. The objective was “not to conduct an overall inquiry into the government’s response to COVID-19.” Without a mandate or capacity to take on the full slate of scientific, economic and social issues that surround the pandemic response, the Manning report lacks the evidentiary depth and analytical range Albertans or Canadians need to fully understand what happened and what needs to be done to make sure it never happens again.
The Manning recommendations may make sense, but they do not fully examine any issues and in some cases amount to policy truisms. For example, should governments conduct economic and other advance impact assessments before imposing major regulations and lockdowns? Yes. “While it is not the task of the Panel to pass judgment on the adequacy or inadequacy of any of the impact assessments that were or were not done, it is the judgment of the Panel that impact assessments are essential.” On the actual economic impact of COVID policies, the Alberta report essentially concludes that more research is needed.
The Alberta report is a generalized evaluation that lacks detail, information and research. Only a full federal royal commission, headed by panellists and staff who can be seen as objective, and who are empowered to delve into the science, health-care and economic issues, can provide real understanding of what happened as national and local governments tackled the COVID pandemic.
Appointing such a non-partisan inquiry will not be easy, but the story of Canada’s COVID history — now heading into a fourth year — cannot be left in the hands of one minister of finance or one government.
We have some indications of costs in Ottawa’s fiscal statement — hundreds of billions of dollars in lost economic activity, increased government debt and major inflation-distortions. What, exactly, were the benefits?
Canadians need answers, and a royal commission seems to be the only way to get them.
• Email: tcorcoran@postmedia.com
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