Imagine an alien observer, sent undercover to Earth every half-century, to account for the status of human life on the planet. What would she convey to her extraterrestrial colleagues about 2024?

Imagine an alien observer, sent undercover to Earth every half-century, to account for the status of human life on the planet. What would she convey to her extraterrestrial colleagues about 2024?

Before taking her trip, she would peruse her previous reports, noting a few things. In 1974, the world’s leading democratic power, the United States, was in geopolitical retreat and domestic disarray, while the authoritarian Soviet Union appeared increasingly powerful. The most populated state in the world, a Mao Zedong-led China, possessed an economy barely above subsistence level, while the second most populous nation, India, was scarcely better. The global economy suffered from both inflation and slow growth, marked by a chaotic international monetary and financial system. Wars or the threat of wars, both civil and interstate, were ever present in every part of the globe. Nuclear Armageddon hung like a sword of Damocles over the planet.

1974’s report, however, was absolutely Pollyannaish compared to 1924’s. One horrific world war had concluded while laying the seeds for another even more murderous. Imperialism shaped the international order, as a significant percentage of the world’s population was ruled or exploited by European capitals thousands of miles away. A steep economic depression had just ended but was only a precursor to a far deeper, more devastating financial collapse a few years later. Racism, misogyny, and intolerance were the norm. This, however, was paradise compared to the previous chronicle. 1874’s report pointed out that global life expectancy was only 30 and that few living people had not, at some point in their life, been visited by personal and communal violence, deadly disease, misrule and misgovernance, and the threat of famine and disaster. Each preceding half-century report was, in fact, more dire than the last.

The soup line in New York City, circa 1929. Bettman Archives/via Getty Images

Seen from this historical perspective, the alien could send a positively glowing report back home. In 2024, famine and illiteracy have been dramatically reduced, and life expectancy has more than doubled over the past century. Unimaginable volumes of wealth are generated; staggering amounts of information are available to ordinary people, instantaneously; and transformative new labor and lifesaving technologies are created every day. Genocide is rare; tolerance, not prejudice, is increasingly a shared norm; formal colonialism has been thrown on the dustbin of history; and economic recessions are unlikely to turn into crippling depressions.

Most importantly, the incentives for states to fully mobilize their societies to pursue total wars of conquest—perhaps the most pervasive and frightening aspect of world politics in her past chronicles—have all but disappeared. Indeed, states are now expected to protect and provide benefits to their citizens, instead of simply using them as military fodder to vanquish foes and seize land. Ideas and innovation, not territory, are the sources of power in this new world.

In short, the world has made unimaginable progress in taming the steep challenges of scarcity that had plagued humanity for millennia and had been one of the core drivers of total wars for plunder, empire, and conquest. But the success in creating a more prosperous, informed, and secure world for humanity has, unexpectedly, generated a whole new set of planetary challenges that, if not resolved, threatens disaster, if not human extinction.

The remarkable progress in generating unimaginable levels of wealth, information, and security has created the new, more vexing, and arguably more dangerous problems of plenty—unexpected and potentially catastrophic challenges that were created, ironically, by humanity’s impressive efforts to tame........

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