The year 2024 promises to be a tumultuous one in India in more ways than one. The country is headed for general elections, like many others in the region. Most mainstream political analysts say Prime Minister Narendra Modi is steering his party to power again for a third successive term. The reigning mantra pivots around New India, or Bharat, recapturing ancient India's civilisational greatness. The consecration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya on January 22 has hugely boosted this vision of a nation of devout Hindus. Typically missing from the popular discourse is a critical question: Will religious nationalism deliver the Indian miracle?
While speaking after the consecration of the new Ram Lalla idol at the Ayodhya temple, PM Modi appealed to people, especially the youth, to contribute to the rise of a magnificent India. "This is India's time, and India is now moving forward... Generations a thousand years from now will remember our nation-building efforts of today," he said. Arguably, faith, fortune and the future are inextricably intertwined in the India story. What does this mix mean for the ordinary Indian in an uncertain and turbulent world? India, the most populous nation (1.4 billion), has a median age of 28. It's much talked-about demographic dividend is not a given. India has made progress on many fronts. But India's challenges must not be underestimated.
Currently ranked 5th in the world's GDP (gross domestic product), India is still a lower-middle-income country. According to the USAID country dashboard for India, India's annual GDP growth is 7 per cent, while the Asian average is 2.62. But when it comes to India's GDP per capita (current $US), the country's score is nearly 2,400, while the Asian average is 10,000. Countries with a higher GDP per capita tend to be those that are industrial, developed countries.
More home truths in India, 53.4 per centof children between six and 59 months are anaemic, while the Asian average is 32.55 per cent. More than half the children studying in village India still struggle with basic math. Add to this another stark reality the huge disparities within India on every front, not captured by national averages. Which brings us to a very key part of the developed tag. A 2024 report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) sledgehammers a vital truth economic growth is critical but human development is not achieved automatically by growth alone. Titled Making our Future New Directions for Human Development in the Asia-Pacific, it notes that since 1990, the Asia Pacific region has made important strides in education and literacy. But there are sharp variations within the region.
East Asia has set global benchmarks, and South Asia has seen a remarkable leap in adult literacy, from 47 to 74 per cent, surpassing sub-Saharan Africa, though still trailing other Asia-Pacific subregions. The report points out that many more people are completing tertiary education, especially in East Asia and South-East Asia. The UNDP report points out that over recent decades, "India has improved living standards and significantly reduced poverty, but it is seeing an increase in inequality."
It notes that between 2000 and 2022, per capita income (in India) soared from $442 to $2,389 and between 2004 and 2019, poverty rates (based on the international poverty measure of $2.15 per day) came down from 40 to 10 percent. But "despite these successes, poverty remains persistently concentrated in states that are home to 45 per cent of the country's population but contain 62 per cent of its poor", says UNDP.
Additionally, "many other people are very vulnerable, hovering just above the poverty line. The groups at greater risk of falling back into poverty include women, informal workers, and inter-state migrants. Women are only 23 per cent of the labour force. Amidst rapid growth but persistent disparity, the income distribution has become more skewed. The top 10 per cent of the population get 57 per cent of national income, and the top 1 per cent get 22 per cent, one of the unequal income distributions."
There are lessons to be learnt from more developed parts of India and other countries in Asia. Thailand, an upper middle-income country, achieved universal health coverage in 2002. Japan and the Republic of Korea, for example, "While implementing sound economic policies also invested heavily in education and healthcare for decades. In the area of education, Japan ensured equal opportunities for students across socioeconomic backgrounds so students from poor families became less disadvantaged. As a result, less than 10 per cent of the variation in student performance in Japan is explained by a student's socioeconomic background.
Across OECD countries, the proportion is 13 per cent. Similarly, in healthcare, since the 1960s, Japan's system of universal health insurance has provided comprehensive coverage to all citizens, enabling the country to control and eradicate common infectious diseases and achieve one of the world's highest life expectancies," says UNDP. It is important to note that these countries did not wait to get the super-rich to invest in human capital.
A key issue is the gender gap. "India will not be able to realise its demographic dividend unless it is able to bring more women into the labour force and into productive employment. At present, India's female labour force participation rate stands at 37 per cent, with 64 per cent of all employed women in the agriculture sector. Bringing more women into gainful employment not only requires addressing regressive social and cultural norms but also investment in childcare service provision, health, education and technology and infrastructure services that allow more time for market work," observed Radhicka Kapoor, Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) in an article for the East Asia Forum.
The bottom line: Harkening back to a golden age of the past does not automatically translate into a golden age in the present or future. There is a lot of work to do. These issues may not be at the heart of the political and electoral discourse right now, but it is critical that citizens again foreground the everyday issues that will improve the prospects and quality of life for ordinary Indians.
Patralekha Chatterjee is a writer and columnist who spends her time in South and Southeast Asia and looks at modern-day connections between the two adjacent regions. X: @Patralekha2011
South By Southeast: Will Religious Nationalism Deliver The Indian Miracle?
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25.01.2024
The year 2024 promises to be a tumultuous one in India in more ways than one. The country is headed for general elections, like many others in the region. Most mainstream political analysts say Prime Minister Narendra Modi is steering his party to power again for a third successive term. The reigning mantra pivots around New India, or Bharat, recapturing ancient India's civilisational greatness. The consecration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya on January 22 has hugely boosted this vision of a nation of devout Hindus. Typically missing from the popular discourse is a critical question: Will religious nationalism deliver the Indian miracle?
While speaking after the consecration of the new Ram Lalla idol at the Ayodhya temple, PM Modi appealed to people, especially the youth, to contribute to the rise of a magnificent India. "This is India's time, and India is now moving forward... Generations a thousand years from now will remember our nation-building efforts of today," he said. Arguably, faith, fortune and the future are inextricably intertwined in the India story. What does this mix mean for the ordinary Indian in an uncertain and turbulent world? India, the most populous nation (1.4 billion), has a median age of 28. It's much talked-about demographic dividend is not a given. India has made progress on many fronts. But India's challenges must not be underestimated.
Currently ranked 5th in the world's GDP (gross domestic product), India is still a lower-middle-income country. According to the USAID country dashboard for India, India's annual GDP growth is 7 per cent, while the Asian average is 2.62. But when it........
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