The point I wish to make today is simple and straightforward. The chances of the 28-party INDIA bloc realising its dream of “defeating” Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the forthcoming elections hinges on the answer to a single question. What is their aim — to ensure the BJP falls short of 272 seats and cannot form a government without allies or to maximise the number of seats each party wins?
These are two different goals and, presently, cannot be realised together. They require different approaches and strategies. Indeed, if the aim is to maximise the number of seats you can almost guarantee the BJP will return with a sizeable majority.
To keep the BJP below 272, each party needs to accept its limitations. That’s a lot harder than it seems prime facie. It requires sacrificing its interests for the greater benefit of the alliance. Only then can the INDIA bloc put up a one-to-one fight in at least 400 seats and hope the 60% who vote for the Opposition is not split by multiple candidates.
Let me illustrate with reference to the Congress. In states like Uttar Pradesh (UP) and West Bengal, it must accept recent history confirms its prospects are limited and this isn’t the moment to try and improve them.
In 2014, the Congress won a solitary Lok Sabha seat in UP and in 2022, at the Vidhan Sabha level, just two. Its vote share was 6.4% and 2.4% respectively. The story in Bengal is worse. In 2019, it won two Lok Sabha seats and in 2021, it didn’t win a single Vidhan Sabha seat. Its vote share was 5.7% and 3.1% respectively.
The message is clear. The more seats the Congress contests the more the BJP could win. This is precisely what happened in Bihar. In the 2020 Vidhan Sabha election, the Congress contested 70 but won 19. This was a repeat of its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. It contested nine but won one.
Of course, there are states where other members of the INDIA bloc have to make sacrifices in the Congress’s favour. They include Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. Here, parties like the Samajwadi Party or the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) must check their ambitions. This is not a time to spread their wings. The Congress is better placed to defeat the BJP.
There are, of course, some states that will be problematic. Punjab and Delhi are two. In Punjab, at the Lok Sabha level, the Congress won eight and the AAP one in 2019. The situation reversed very substantially in the Vidhan Sabha elections. It was 92-18 in favour of the AAP. In Delhi, neither party has a Lok Sabha seat and, perhaps, the Congress came second in more seats than the AAP. But the Vidhan Sabha elections established the AAP’s massive dominance. In neither state will it be easy to split the seats. But if they do it greedily, the BJP will be the winner.
Can you now see why my point is both simple and straightforward but also glaringly obvious? Can you also accept that it can only be self-defeating for the INDIA bloc to dispute this logic? This is the bare minimum the Opposition must do to restrict the BJP below 272. There is, of course, a lot more.
First, what’s their message? Personal criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn’t work. A concentrated focus on Gautam Adani and crony capitalism, weakness in response to China or ill-treatment of minorities doesn’t win votes. But issues that affect the daily lives of ordinary people might i.e. inflation, education, health, jobs and poverty.
I would go further. The INDIA bloc must ensure the question “Modi versus who?” doesn’t end with the default answer Rahul Gandhi. He must make clear he’s not the presumptive prime ministerial candidate and, if necessary, repeat it till it’s accepted beyond doubt.
Let me end with a message for the Congress. Modi and the BJP cannot be defeated easily. Bringing them below 272 should be the target for 2024. The Congress should work for a majority of its own only in 2029.
Karan Thapar is the author of Devil’s Advocate: The Untold Story. The views expressed are personal
Karan Thapar is a super-looking genius who’s young, friendly, chatty and great fun to be with. He’s also very enjoyable to read. ...view detail
What INDIA could do to stop BJP juggernaut
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20.01.2024
The point I wish to make today is simple and straightforward. The chances of the 28-party INDIA bloc realising its dream of “defeating” Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the forthcoming elections hinges on the answer to a single question. What is their aim — to ensure the BJP falls short of 272 seats and cannot form a government without allies or to maximise the number of seats each party wins?
These are two different goals and, presently, cannot be realised together. They require different approaches and strategies. Indeed, if the aim is to maximise the number of seats you can almost guarantee the BJP will return with a sizeable majority.
To keep the BJP below 272, each party needs to accept its limitations. That’s a lot harder than it seems prime facie. It requires sacrificing its interests for the greater benefit of the alliance. Only then can the INDIA bloc put up a one-to-one fight in at least 400 seats and hope the 60% who vote for the Opposition is not split by multiple candidates.
Let me illustrate with........
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