With the announcement of February 8 as the election date, the electoral scene is heating up in Pakistan. Veteran politician Nawaz Sharif is said to be the choice of the army for the prime ministership. Judicial cases against him are falling like ninepins and pro-army smaller parties are gravitating towards him.
The job of prime minister (PM), however, comes with two caveats: First, no change in the civil-military equation; and second, stabilisation of the precariously poised economy without hurting the interests of the Pakistani elite, including the army and its business empire.
Originally a creation of the army, Nawaz Sharif has been seen as a strong votary of civilian supremacy since he signed the Charter of Democracy with Benazir Bhutto in 2006. His instinct on the issue was betrayed by his demand, made a few days before his return from exile in London, for the accountability of the former army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa and former director-general, Inter-Services Intelligence, Faiz Hameed. Persuaded by his brother, Shehbaz Sharif (more acceptable of the two to the army) and other party leaders, he has not persisted with the demand, but Nawaz Sharif is not someone who can take dictation from the army for too long.
As for Pakistan’s growing economic woes, they result from its adversarial posture towards a much bigger and better-endowed India that imposes unbearable economic burdens and its tendency all through its existence to live far beyond its means, necessitating dependence on external aid and borrowing. Nawaz Sharif has displayed the right instinct on relations with India, not only because it is an economic imperative, but also because he sees it as necessary to undermine the salience of the army in the Pakistani polity. He is perhaps the only Pakistani politician to muster the courage to speak repeatedly of improving relations with India during an election campaign in the run-up to the 2013 election. However, his ability to deliver on the ground will remain dependent on the attitude of the army. Army chief Asim Munir has so far followed the policy of his predecessor, Qamar Bajwa, in the closing years of his tenure, of exercising tactical restraint vis-a-vis India, but beyond that, his thinking on the issue remains unclear. As for the latter factor, Nawaz Sharif’s tenures as PM have been known for emphasis on mega projects and infrastructure, leading to a temporary spurt in economic growth, but also burgeoning debt. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the latest example. He has not shown the tendency to carry out structural reforms, including the imposition of a heavier tax burden on the elite, which is essential to salvage the economy.
Nawaz Sharif’s prime ministership is not a done deal. To begin with, he has yet to cross some judicial hurdles before becoming eligible to contest the election. The army needs him to counter Imran Khan’s popularity, but because of his past record, he will not be their first choice for the prime ministership.
There are other questions that may be answered in the coming weeks and months. Can he sway the younger voters, who reject Pakistan’s old-style politics and have been enamoured of Imran Khan? How will he live down the image of the army’s ladla that he has come to acquire recently?
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has not been ruled out of the election but remains decapitated. Imran Khan is likely to remain in jail at least until after the election. Other senior leaders have either deserted the party or are incarcerated. The beneficiary of the army’s support in the 2018 election, the PTI is at the receiving end of its wrath this time. Therefore, it may neither be able to garner sufficient resources nor good candidates to put up a credible fight. This may force many PTI supporters to stay home on election day.
Having worked together to counter Imran Khan, the principal actors — the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the army — are now pursuing their own interests. Besides retaining its stronghold of Sindh, the PPP would like to recover its support in Punjab, especially southern Punjab, where it had remained marginalised in the last two elections. The PML(N) would like to retain its political dominance in Punjab and get a decent number of seats in other provinces, a tall order in view of the public wrath incurred by it because of the harsh economic policies adopted by the Shehbaz Sharif government to sustain the International Monetary Fund programme. The army would like to see a hung house, in which it could craft a majority of its choice with the help of the smaller parties beholden to it. Besides, three such parties already in its tool kit, two more — the Istehkam-e-Pakistan and PTI Parliamentarians — floated by pro-army PTI deserters will also be in the fray.
All indications point to a managed election, as in 2018. It may paper over the political crisis unleashed by Imran Khan’s ouster from power in 2022, but will not resolve it. It is likely to result in a government lacking political legitimacy, dependent on the army and incapable of effectively confronting Pakistan’s multiple crises.
Sharat Sabharwal is a former high commissioner to Pakistan. The views expressed are personal
Pakistan polls: New script with old cast
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28.11.2023
With the announcement of February 8 as the election date, the electoral scene is heating up in Pakistan. Veteran politician Nawaz Sharif is said to be the choice of the army for the prime ministership. Judicial cases against him are falling like ninepins and pro-army smaller parties are gravitating towards him.
The job of prime minister (PM), however, comes with two caveats: First, no change in the civil-military equation; and second, stabilisation of the precariously poised economy without hurting the interests of the Pakistani elite, including the army and its business empire.
Originally a creation of the army, Nawaz Sharif has been seen as a strong votary of civilian supremacy since he signed the Charter of Democracy with Benazir Bhutto in 2006. His instinct on the issue was betrayed by his demand, made a few days before his return from exile in London, for the accountability of the former army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa and former director-general, Inter-Services Intelligence, Faiz Hameed. Persuaded by his brother, Shehbaz Sharif (more acceptable of the two to the army) and other party leaders, he has not persisted with the demand, but Nawaz Sharif is not someone who can take dictation from the army for too long.
As for Pakistan’s growing economic woes, they result from its adversarial posture........
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