An alligator spotted at Brazos Bend State Park. When you’re up to your neck in alligators, it’s hard to remember that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.
Majid Jafar, chief executive officer of Crescent Petroleum Co., right, gives Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and president of COP28, center, a scarf in the colors of the United Arab Emirates national flag during the Summit on Methane and Other Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases on day three of the COP28 climate conference at Expo City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and president of COP28, speaks on the opening day of the COP28 climate conference at Expo City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Nov. 30.
For people commanding ground forces, my superiors in the Army spent an excessive amount of time talking about swamps, alligators and their proximity to boats.
They routinely tortured a Southern proverb about how when you’re up to your neck in alligators, it’s hard to remember that your initial objective was to drain the swamp. Oil industry commentary from last week’s U.N. climate conference reminded me of the saying.
Military folks turned it into a metaphor for problem-solving by arguing you must deal with the alligators closest to the boat first while draining the swamp. The alligators farther away can wait.
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Fossil fuel executives echo that approach when prioritizing the world’s energy demands today while delaying cuts to carbon emissions.
“Demand for affordable, reliable energy will continue to rise as global population increases, and the world will need more sources of energy, not fewer,” said Dustin Meyer, a senior official at the American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s leading lobbyist. “We’re committed to working with policymakers on solutions that keep all options on the table.”
The International Energy Agency says 775 million people have no electricity, and nearly 2.5 billion cannot access clean cooking fuels. The world’s thirst for energy is also growing, and some estimate we’ll need 15 nuclear power plants to meet the electricity demand created by artificial intelligence.
Last week, electric utility executives met in Washington and declared the entire United States needs more power generation and equipment. Electric Reliability Council of Texas CEO Pablo Vegas said Texas could suffer blackouts.
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“The reality is risk is increasing. We’re all seeing it,” he said. “If we do smart things with investments in resources, we can bring that risk down. But we need to make smart decisions.”
What counts as smart is the challenge. Just as a salesperson at the cosmetics counter will always say you need more makeup, fossil fuel dealers argue their products are the answers to energy poverty, the nearest alligator.
Their solution, however, complicates the goal of limiting global warming, the proverbial draining of the swamp.
Global oil and gas companies denied climate change for decades and still oppose regulations to reduce emissions. As a result, despite 30 years of world leaders promising to fight climate change, carbon emissions have doubled. The World Economic Forum says warming costs humanity $16 million an hour.
This year was the hottest humans have ever recorded. Next year will likely be hotter, thanks to the cyclical El Niño weather pattern amplifying global warming that has already raised average global temperatures by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution.
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The world cannot continue burning coal, oil and natural gas at the current rate and meet the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. No matter what oil executives may claim, we do not possess enough money or natural resources to capture all the carbon we are releasing, numerous studies report.
This fact is why every nation promised last week to transition away from fossil fuels and radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But if the United States keeps its pledge, Texas could suffer dearly.
Texas is the nation’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the world’s largest contributors to climate change. Texas produces 42% of the nation’s oil and 27% of its natural gas, the Energy Information Administration reports. Texas’s carbon emissions jumped 85% between 1970 and 2021 and rose 1% since 2016.
No wonder Texas’s Republican leaders deny climate change. Doing something about emissions would make the state’s wealthiest people and top political donors uncomfortable.
A political appointee himself, Vegas called for more greenhouse gas emissions by recommending Texans burn more fossil fuels. His staff also proposed rules making it harder for large-scale batteries to supply backup power, guaranteeing the Texas grid would rely more on natural gas companies.
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The smart decision is to innovate, not stagnate.
New wind and solar projects provide cheaper electricity than coal, natural gas or nuclear power. Operators are installing massive batteries to store electricity for the dark and still hours when electricity demand can peak. We’re learning to manage demand.
Geothermal companies are using fracking technology to generate steam from hot shale deep below the earth’s surface. The cost of offshore wind, which blows far more consistently, is coming down quickly.
Texas became wealthy by solving the world’s energy challenges with oil and gas. If we are willing to change with the science, we can fight the alligators and drain the swamp simultaneously, saving the planet and our economy.
Chris Tomlinson, named 2021 columnist of the year by the Texas Managing Editors, writes commentary about money, politics and life in Texas. Sign up for his “Tomlinson’s Take” newsletter at HoustonChronicle.com/TomlinsonNewsletter or Expressnews.com/TomlinsonNewsletter.
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