Icicles hang off the Texas 195 highway sign on Feb. 18, 2021, in Killeen after an arctic cold front swept through Texas. Arctic fronts are the most powerful type of cold fronts seen in Texas.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas issued a weather watch anticipating higher electricity demand and potential for lower amounts of reserve power Monday, Jan. 15 through Wednesday, Jan. 17.
Chris Sanchez sits on a shopping cart as he waits with hundreds of other San Antonians in line to enter the H-E-B at West Avenue and Blanco Road at noon on Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021, after snow and freezing temperatures caused the closing the the store chain and most businesses.
Houston Police officers Kenneth Bigger, center, and Aaron Day, center-right, hand out blankets to people as a winter storm continues to hit the area Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021, under the elevated portion of I-45 in downtown Houston.
Once upon a time, on a dark and stormy night, Texans could sleep with confidence that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas would keep the lights and heat on. Not anymore.
A polar vortex will dip south next week, thanks to human-caused climate change weakening the midcontinent jet stream. The cold snap has the potential to match Winter Storm Elliott, which struck in December 2022, and to resemble Winter Storm Uri, which froze Texas in February 2021.
The Texas energy system failed in 2021, leaving hundreds to die in the cold. The grid wobbled again in 2022, another storm that deniers of global warming said was an anomaly. ERCOT, the nonprofit that oversees the grid, says there is a 1-in-6 chance we’ll have an emergency next week.
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“ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch from January 15-17 due to forecasted extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves,” a media release announced Thursday.
The grid operator isn’t predicting any problems, at least not yet.
Before we start cursing ERCOT managers, we need to remember they are no more than air traffic controllers. They don’t own the power plants and have limited power to give orders.
ERCOT relies on a competitive wholesale market to set prices high enough to encourage electricity generation. When demand rises, ERCOT’s algorithm raises the price to get more operators online. The ERCOT control room ensures only that transmission lines don’t fry and power is balanced with demand.
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The corporate power plant owners have a strike price. Tax credits allow wind and solar generators to sell electricity at negative prices. But a quick-start natural gas facility will fire up only when prices spike over $2,000 a megawatt-hour, usually only for a few hours a few times a year.
Texans have enjoyed cheap electricity this week because the wind was blowing and the sun was shining. For many hours, renewables provided 70% of the grid’s electricity for less than $1 a megawatt-hour.
The most perilous moments come around 8 a.m. on cold, dark and still January mornings when people climb out of bed, turn up the heat and make coffee. ERCOT warned last year taht these are the moments that could create grid emergencies.
During Winter Storm Elliott, electricity demand peaked at 73,963 megawatts, relying on the most expensive fossil fuel plants for three hours. Estimates for Winter Storm Uri, when tens of thousands of Texans lost power for four days, put demand at 76,000 megawatts.
ERCOT has forecast between 80,000 and 85,000 megawatts of demand on Tuesday morning, which would match the record set in August when ERCOT declared an emergency.
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ERCOT is adding generation every month, but not all of it works in sub-freezing temperatures; even fossil fuel plants struggle. Texas has added an enormous number of batteries since December 2022, and just as in August, they will play a critical role in keeping the power on.
What’s worrisome is Texas’s natural gas-fired power system. Critics accuse natural gas pipeline operators of moving supplies around during Uri to maximize profits, and then mistakenly triggering blackouts. Dozens of natural gas power plants suffered from frozen pipes and other malfunctions.
ERCOT has reported more than 8,000 megawatts of unplanned shutdowns at coal- and natural gas-fired plants in recent days. That’s an extraordinary number, like what we saw last summer when ERCOT declared emergency conditions. While it’s no problem when renewable sources are providing 70% of the state’s needs, Texans rely on those plants for backup power.
The first step ERCOT will take if demand grows too high is to call on large users to go offline. Crypto mining companies consume huge amounts of energy, and they argue they are a safety switch because they can shut down quickly.
Bitcoin prices, though, are at the highest levels in years, and miners don’t stop making money for free. ERCOT will pay them millions of dollars for every 15-minute interval they go dark.
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The grid operator will also call on Texans to conserve. If Texans turned down their thermostats just 2 degrees and unplugged their electric vehicles, they could shave 17,500 megawatts of demand during critical hours, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy calculated.
We won’t fully understand the challenge posed by this new winter storm until 24 hours before its arrival. Maybe it won’t get that cold. But ERCOT is supposed to guarantee a reliable grid, and here we are worrying like early pioneers, fearful as dark clouds block out the sun and the first gust of cold wind hits our faces.
Award-winning opinion writer Chris Tomlinson writes commentary about money, politics and life in Texas. Sign up for his “Tomlinson’s Take” newsletter at HoustonChronicle.com/TomlinsonNewsletter or Expressnews.com/TomlinsonNewsletter.
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