The Myanmar military, disputing the results of the 2020 election, seized power on 1 February 2021, triggering widespread civil unrest and armed resistance. Despite international condemnation, Myanmar remains mired in violence, with uncertain prospects for resolution and questions about its future trajectory.

On 1 February 2021, Myanmar's armed forces (Tatmadaw) rebuffed the landslide electoral triumph of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 2020 and assumed control of the government. The allegation of widespread fraud in the 2020 elections precipitated a crisis wherein the military, wielding substantial control over the government as a result of a constitution it authored, declined to acknowledge the election outcomes. The coup incited widespread civil disobedience, protests and armed resistance.

After the 2021 coup, opposition activists and former lawmakers formed a shadow government, known as the National Unity Government (NUG). The NUG has been working to mobilise resistance and coordinate the actions of local militias, known as People's Defense Forces (PDFs). PDF is a collective term for three types of armed groups that have emerged since the coup—PDFs; Local Defense Forces (LDFs), and People's Defense Teams (PDTs). PDFs are larger armed units formed or recognised by the NUG, operating under joint command systems with several ethnic armed organisations.1

In June 2019, three armed groups—the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), formed an alliance called ‘The Three Brotherhood Alliance’.2 The alliance rose to prominence in 2023 in resisting the Burmese junta. On 27 October 2023, the alliance launched Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in northern Shan state. The alliance and other ‘resistance forces’ control a substantial part of the country as of now.3

Amidst internal discord, diverse opposition factions have coalesced, attaining an unprecedented degree of cooperation regarding military strategy. This collaborative endeavour extends across two-thirds of the nation's territory and has culminated in significant triumphs against their adversaries.4

The civil war has precipitated a grave humanitarian crisis. The UN reports that over 2.6 million people are now displaced within Myanmar, with nearly 800,000 of these displacements occurring since late-October 2023.5 In India, approximately 59,200 individuals from Myanmar's North-West region have sought protection since February 2021. Of these, around 5,500 are in New Delhi and have registered with the UNHCR. 6

The United Nations reported that ‘security forces in Myanmar have caused the deaths of at least 1,600 individuals and have detained more than 12,500’7 within one year of the coup. A report by the Peace Research Institute Oslo notes that at least 6,000 civilians perished during the initial 20-month period subsequent to military coup.