With a triple win in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, the BJP is elated. It is more confident of victory in the 2024 parliamentary elections, and the prime minister himself has said that these victories have put the BJP on the road to a hat trick in 2024. There is no doubt that Modi-Shah jodi, even in the absence of a chief ministerial face, has paid off well. Brand Modi is soaring, politically as well as in the Sensex. Most political pundits point to the Modi factor behind BJP’s win.
But a deeper analysis may reveal something more. It may also have implications for the parliamentary elections in 2024. It is worth looking at “Modi plus other factors” behind BJP’s success. It may have significant lessons for 2024.
For this, let me turn to a few promises that the BJP has made to the electorate in these state elections. Some of these promises are incentives, others may be pure welfare or revdis (doles).
In MP, where the BJP’s win is most astounding and decisive, it is being said that the promise of giving Rs 1,250/woman/month, under the Ladli Behna scheme has been a critical factor in swinging women’s votes towards the party. But the Congress had promised even more (Rs 1,500/woman/month). Then why did the women’s votes not swing in favour of Congress?
I feel there is more to the story of BJP’s win in Madhya Pradesh than Ladli Behna, and even the Modi-Shah factor. And that story is embedded in the remarkable success of Madhya Pradesh’s agriculture since Shivraj Singh Chouhan took over the reins of chief ministership in 2005.
From 2005-06 to 2022-23, Madhya Pradesh’s agri-GDP has registered an average annual growth rate of 7 per cent, against an all-India figure of 3.8 per cent. As a result of this, Madhya Pradesh is the only state where the share of agri-GDP in overall state GDP has increased over the years and stands at a whopping figure of 44 per cent against the all-India picture of just 18 per cent.
It matters a great deal for a state to have this high growth and a high share of agriculture, because the sector in Madhya Pradesh still engages more than 60 per cent of the workforce against an all-India figure of 45 per cent. That means that growth in Madhya Pradesh over the Chouhan period has not only been spectacular but also very inclusive.
No other state matches with this record, except Gujarat during the Modi period from 2002 to 2013, when agriculture growth touched 9 per cent. Such high growth rates in agriculture, over reasonably longer periods, pay off handsomely, politically as well as economically (dono haath main ladoo), as maximum people benefit from such a growth model. And they surely reward the captain, the CM and his party, by bringing them back to power. So, this is a lesson for other states as well as for policymakers at the Centre to keep agriculture on high priority.
What could be the drivers of growth in Madhya Pradesh agriculture? Our research at ICRIER on MP’s agriculture growth tells us three factors are major drivers. One, the almost doubling of irrigation, which helped raise cropping intensity as well as productivity. Two, the setting up a well-organised procurement system for wheat, including the role of bonus on top of the Centre’s minimum support price (MSP). And third, diversification towards high-value crops, especially horticulture, and dairy.
Much of the agriculture policy matrix in Madhya Pradesh revolved around these areas. There was a special focus on completing dams and canal networks. Madhya Pradesh has a large untapped potential for public irrigation (large and medium irrigation). But the real magic was through groundwater irrigation. The MP govt supplied ample power to agriculture, increasing it from 6,810 Gwh in 2010-11 to 26,521 Gwh in 2021-22. The share of agriculture in the overall power consumption of the state went up from 27 per cent to 40 per cent over the same period. Groundwater irrigation spread from 3.7 million hectares in 2005-06 to 8.3 million hectares by 2019-20. This was revolutionary.
As irrigation increased, so did production of most crops. Most notably wheat, for which the MP government developed an organised system to procure, perhaps the best in the country. From literally nowhere, today, MP is only next to Punjab in procurement of wheat, and for many years it has been just neck to neck in competition with Punjab. But unlike Punjab, it also attracts several large private sector players to buy the best wheat (sharbati) from the state as it has kept its commissions and mandi charges lowest and encourages even direct buying from farmers.
And remember, all this does not come in a day. It is the hard work, call it tapasya of Shivraj and his team.
One may question, then why did the BJP lose in 2018? One factor perhaps was the withdrawal of bonus on wheat and paddy. When the BJP came to office at the Centre in 2014, it advised MP and Chhattisgarh BJP-ruled states to withdraw these bonuses. Both states followed the advice, and both lost in 2018. Now, in this election bout of 2023, the BJP has brought back the promise of handsome bonuses in MP and Chhattisgarh, as well as Rajasthan (about 27 per cent on wheat and 42 per cent on paddy’s current central government’s MSP). Perhaps that is another factor behind BJP’s victory in these states, which is not being talked about. Lesson — prices do matter for farmers.
Although state-level bonuses are distortionary, how justified is unloading central grain stocks at way below economic cost to tame food inflation? It may not go well with the farmers in the national election. So, beware, state victories may not necessarily guarantee national victory. Don’t forget the “India Shining” episode of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.
Gulati is a Distinguished Professor at ICRIER. Views are personal
I feel there is more to the story of BJP’s MP win than Ladli Behna, and even the Modi-Shah factor
19
6
11.12.2023
With a triple win in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, the BJP is elated. It is more confident of victory in the 2024 parliamentary elections, and the prime minister himself has said that these victories have put the BJP on the road to a hat trick in 2024. There is no doubt that Modi-Shah jodi, even in the absence of a chief ministerial face, has paid off well. Brand Modi is soaring, politically as well as in the Sensex. Most political pundits point to the Modi factor behind BJP’s win.
But a deeper analysis may reveal something more. It may also have implications for the parliamentary elections in 2024. It is worth looking at “Modi plus other factors” behind BJP’s success. It may have significant lessons for 2024.
For this, let me turn to a few promises that the BJP has made to the electorate in these state elections. Some of these promises are incentives, others may be pure welfare or revdis (doles).
In MP, where the BJP’s win is most astounding and decisive, it is being said that the promise of giving Rs 1,250/woman/month, under the Ladli Behna scheme has been a critical factor in swinging women’s votes towards the party. But the Congress had promised even more (Rs 1,500/woman/month). Then why did the women’s votes not swing in favour of Congress?
I feel there is more to the story of BJP’s win in Madhya Pradesh than Ladli Behna, and even the Modi-Shah factor. And that story is embedded in the remarkable success........
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