A recent headline in Nikkei Asia, a leading English-language publication from Japan, said America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific “tremble at the prospect of Trump’s return”. The mood is even grimmer in Europe. A few days ago, Donald Trump warned Europeans that he would let Russia invade allies who do not pay their share of the defence burden in NATO. Whether he was serious or not, there is no denying Trump’s visceral hostility to allies in Asia and Europe — he sees them as free-riding on America’s shoulders.
As the chances of Donald Trump winning the grudge match against President Joe Biden brighten, the apprehensions of US allies in Europe and Asia are getting darker. Even if Trump does not win, his Republican Party’s growing opposition to foreign commitments and a deepening sense of “America First” promise to produce major changes in Eurasian geopolitics. On the face of it, this does not look too threatening to India. After all, India is not an “ally” of the US and does not depend on its military forces for its security. A closer look, however, points to more complex consequences of Trump’s “America First” policies. Any American military retrenchment from Eurasia will dramatically alter the balance of power in this region and produce outcomes that are patently unfavourable to India.
Eurasia without America will be a dream come true for those strategists in Moscow and Beijing who fancy their chances of building a new regional order dominated by them. It’s a nightmare for the neighbours of Russia and China. Although Moscow and Beijing have no love for Trump, they relish the prospect of exploiting the divisions that Trump might sharpen among the US and its allies.
Although India rarely debates the consequences of a Europe without America, it is acutely conscious of the dangers of a unipolar Asia dominated by China. It is possible to see that without American presence, Asia could easily slip into the Chinese orbit. As a maritime power, Delhi’s natural preference is for a multipolar order in Eurasia that is not dominated by one power or an axis of continental powers. Yet, Delhi must prepare for major changes in Eurasia amidst the current volatility in US domestic politics and its inevitable global impact.
But first, we must note the contradiction between the allied apprehensions about Trump and his record in office during 2017-21. It was indeed during his presidency that the US National Security Strategy moved Washington away from wasting its energies battling insurgencies in the badlands of the Greater Middle East to dealing with the challenges presented by an increasingly assertive Russia and China.
For all the accusations that Trump was putty in the hands of the Russian leader Vladimir Putin, his administration ramped up the pressures against Moscow. More consequentially, the Trump Administration began the bold reversal of four decades of Washington’s strategy to befriend Beijing and expand the US economic interdependence with China. Trump imposed new tariffs on China, began an effort to reduce economic exposure to Beijing, and revived the Quadrilateral Forum as part of a new Indo-Pacific strategy to balance China. Biden has built on the decisive Asian strategy articulated by Trump.
If Trump’s record is so impressive, why are many of America’s friends worried about his return to the White House? Three factors stand out. First, many chancelleries around the world believe that the “adults in the room” and the American “deep state” restrained Trump from pursuing his convictions on allies as free riders during his presidency. In both Europe and Asia, Trump came close to taking radical steps against allies, such as withdrawing US troops, but held back. This time, America’s allies worry that Trump will be less restrained. They also fear that Trump’s impulsive character and transnational approach will be more on display and do irreparable damage to long-standing US alliances.
Second, despite the widespread Trump-bashing in the US and allied foreign policy establishments, the former president is making an important political point. US allies can’t expect the American taxpayer to spend blood and treasure forever defending their partners who are unwilling to do their bit. The traditional internationalists — both liberal and conservative — believe it is a price worth paying to sustain American leadership of the international system and the benefits that accrue from it. For Trump and a significant section of the Republican Party, the entrenched “globalism” of the US foreign policy elite is an important part of the problem. It is a view with some resonance on the left of the US political spectrum that equates American globalism with a disastrous penchant for empire.
Third, Trump rejects the long-standing assumption in the American establishment that generous non-reciprocal access to the US market should be granted in return for geopolitical favours from allies. This seemed a good deal for the US when it was an economic colossus towering over the ruins of post-war Eurasia, and it needed to win strong military allies in the war against global communism. Trump and the anti-globalist tribe argue that the American people and its economy have paid a huge price — in terms of lost manufacturing jobs — for this grand bargain. They are no longer willing to trade the US market for geopolitical gains. In his first term, Trump not only targeted China with tariffs but also allies in Europe and Asia. Trump is now threatening to impose an across-the-board tariff of 10 per cent on all imports into the US. He also promises to slap tariffs up to 60 per cent on imports from China.
Where does all this leave India?
On the security front, India’s outlook is positive. The US search for capable partners who are willing to contribute to regional security in Eurasia fits nicely with Delhi’s own great power ambitions. The quicker India moves on building its military capabilities and the greater its willingness to deploy it for collective defence with its partners, the faster its rise in the Eurasian security hierarchy will be.
On the economic front, though, Delhi has a challenge. That India is the “tariff king” is stuck in Trump’s head, and he frequently lashed out at India’s protectionism. India’s efforts to negotiate a trade agreement with the Trump Administration did not succeed. Since Trump left office, the US has become a more important economic partner for India; trade and technology ties with America are also the most promising. Given the high commercial stakes in this relationship, Delhi will need to think creatively about a new framework for trade cooperation with Washington.
The writer is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
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A possible Donald Trump presidency is worrying US's allies
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13.03.2024
A recent headline in Nikkei Asia, a leading English-language publication from Japan, said America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific “tremble at the prospect of Trump’s return”. The mood is even grimmer in Europe. A few days ago, Donald Trump warned Europeans that he would let Russia invade allies who do not pay their share of the defence burden in NATO. Whether he was serious or not, there is no denying Trump’s visceral hostility to allies in Asia and Europe — he sees them as free-riding on America’s shoulders.
As the chances of Donald Trump winning the grudge match against President Joe Biden brighten, the apprehensions of US allies in Europe and Asia are getting darker. Even if Trump does not win, his Republican Party’s growing opposition to foreign commitments and a deepening sense of “America First” promise to produce major changes in Eurasian geopolitics. On the face of it, this does not look too threatening to India. After all, India is not an “ally” of the US and does not depend on its military forces for its security. A closer look, however, points to more complex consequences of Trump’s “America First” policies. Any American military retrenchment from Eurasia will dramatically alter the balance of power in this region and produce outcomes that are patently unfavourable to India.
Eurasia without America will be a dream come true for those strategists in Moscow and Beijing who fancy their chances of building a new regional order dominated by them. It’s a nightmare for the neighbours of Russia and China. Although Moscow and Beijing have no love for Trump, they relish the prospect of exploiting the divisions that Trump might sharpen among the US and its allies.
Although India rarely debates the consequences of a Europe without America, it is acutely conscious of the dangers of a unipolar Asia dominated by China. It is possible to........
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