In a year of elections around the world, here is one where the incumbent president calls his predecessor a Nazi. The former president accuses his successor of stealing the previous election. The current establishment is hounding the former president with a bunch of criminal cases. The Opposition accuses the government of weaponising law to keep the popular former president off the ballot and is retaliating by preparing to impeach the president. The top court has got into the act, but whatever its decision, a large section of the deeply polarised society will see it as illegitimate and politically motivated.

We are not talking of a banana republic in the Third World, but the US. The American foreign policy elite sees itself as the champion of democracy. It routinely passes judgements on not just the broad political orientation of other countries but on the micro trends within them. Washington punishes foreign governments for presumed transgressions against democratic norms. But what about American democracy?

It is at once tempting and pointless for political elites around the world who are at the receiving end of American criticism to call out its unabashed, if unconscious, hypocrisy. The US is a deeply self-absorbed and self-referential society. What matters, though, are the outcomes of America’s internal dynamics. After all, notwithstanding the quality of its democracy, the choices its polity makes affect the entire world.

To be sure, the many structural problems of American democracy are there out in the open in the 21st century, starting with the first election in 2000 when the Supreme Court had to step in to resolve a dispute over counting votes in Florida. Those problems have sharpened. As the primaries — the state-by-state competition to pick the presidential nominee of the two main parties — begin next week in the mid-Western state of Iowa, the New York Times has declared that American democracy and its constitution are in danger. The Times declared Trump “utterly unfit for office” and decried that he presents America with a “fateful choice” — “between the continuance of the United States as a nation dedicated to ‘the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity’ and a man who has proudly shown open disdain for the law and the protections and ideals of the Constitution.”

The characteristic stentorian tone of the Times does not impress all Americans. Not a few of them think the Times and the liberal media are part of the problem — the demonisation of traditional values and the imposition of woke culture on ordinary people. Many are convinced that the liberal media is out to get Trump. In any case, the US media does not claim to be neutral in political battles. Even the so-called fact-checkers tend to be partisan.

The primary process usually runs well into the summer. It is genuinely democratic and frequently throws up surprises. Unknown candidates often capture the imagination of the party and its nomination. Bill Clinton, the governor of a small southern state, Arkansas, was a little-known political commodity at the national level until he swept the 1992 primaries to win the nomination and the presidency. The rise of Barack Obama, a first-term Senator, in 2008 too was quite dramatic – he defeated the formidable Hillary Clinton to win the nomination. On the Republican side, outsider Donald Trump defeated better-established names like Jeb Bush (son and brother of two former presidents) and won the nomination in 2016 and went on to defeat the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

This time though, the primary process appears a mere formality. Trump is leading his Republican rivals by a huge margin. Whether he can contest for the presidency or not, he is well set to emerge as the Republican nominee.

Incumbent presidents rarely face a serious challenge for the party nomination for a second term; that applies to President Joe Biden. But many in the Democratic Party are concerned about his age and fitness. Some of them hoped that Biden would step aside and let a new generation of leadership take charge. What we now have is two old white men—Biden (81) and Trump (77) — joining the battle again to lead a nation known for youth, vigour and diversity.

Trailing behind Trump in key battleground states, Biden is taking gloves off to attack Trump as a threat to American democracy. Trump responded by mocking the President’s stutter and called him a real threat to democracy. Watch out for more personal insults, attacks and counter-attacks, dirty tricks, and money power—the great joys of democratic politics everywhere — to shape this year’s most consequential election. What happens in the US will certainly not stay within the US.

In the next 10 months, the world will be consumed by the drama of the US elections — it will debate every potential consequence of Trump returning to power. Yet few, including India, have invested in the capabilities to make sense of American society, its history, and politics. There are a couple of exceptions — America’s rivals Russia and China have dedicated establishments for the close study of the US. They also tend to meddle in the US politics. America’s allies in Europe and Asia, too, have intense engagement with the Washington establishment.

As India’s stakes in the relationship with the US rise, Delhi, too, must invest in studying American society. There is no better time to begin than the upcoming presidential elections. Here are four guidelines for following the US elections.

First, Indians don’t have a vote in the elections, so don’t be tempted into taking sides between the candidates. And remember, the “Indian Americans” are Americans.

Second, take the US internal arguments with a big pinch of salt. In the paranoid style of American politics, every proposition is taken to its extreme. But the centre remains quite strong despite the current polarisation in the country.

Third, for all the doom and gloom about the return of Trump, don’t forget that there is both change and continuity in US politics. If Trump forced Washington to rethink the conventional wisdom on China and globalisation in his first term, Biden has persisted with those policies. Understanding that balance between continuity and change is the key challenge for outside observers who were completely off the mark in assessing the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Fourth, the checks and balances in the US system are strong and will prevent Trump from throwing the Constitution overboard. America is too diverse and differentiated to allow one person to impose a radical political agenda on it. In that sense, American democracy is very resilient. It has many problems, but reports of a dangerous crisis are a bit exaggerated.

The writer is contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express

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What happens in the US will certainly not stay within the US

10 33
10.01.2024

In a year of elections around the world, here is one where the incumbent president calls his predecessor a Nazi. The former president accuses his successor of stealing the previous election. The current establishment is hounding the former president with a bunch of criminal cases. The Opposition accuses the government of weaponising law to keep the popular former president off the ballot and is retaliating by preparing to impeach the president. The top court has got into the act, but whatever its decision, a large section of the deeply polarised society will see it as illegitimate and politically motivated.

We are not talking of a banana republic in the Third World, but the US. The American foreign policy elite sees itself as the champion of democracy. It routinely passes judgements on not just the broad political orientation of other countries but on the micro trends within them. Washington punishes foreign governments for presumed transgressions against democratic norms. But what about American democracy?

It is at once tempting and pointless for political elites around the world who are at the receiving end of American criticism to call out its unabashed, if unconscious, hypocrisy. The US is a deeply self-absorbed and self-referential society. What matters, though, are the outcomes of America’s internal dynamics. After all, notwithstanding the quality of its democracy, the choices its polity makes affect the entire world.

To be sure, the many structural problems of American democracy are there out in the open in the 21st century, starting with the first election in 2000 when the Supreme Court had to step in to resolve a dispute over counting votes in Florida. Those problems have sharpened. As the primaries — the state-by-state competition to pick the presidential nominee of the two main parties — begin next week in the mid-Western state of Iowa, the New York Times has declared that American democracy and its constitution are in danger. The Times declared Trump “utterly........

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