In 1937, the American book reviewer of Migrant Asia disagreed with its author, Lucknow University professor Radhakamal Mukerjee’s advocacy of higher migration to rich countries, suggesting “its objectivity is marred by a too evident anxiety” and “free migration is even less feasible than free trade”. Donald Trump may ensure political rhetoric remains unchanged 87 years later, but we believe that the needs of rich countries will eventually trump fear and India must take the lead in a thoughtfully designed guest worker programme that addresses the concerns of rich country voters. This programme could raise our annual inward remittances from $120 billion to $300 billion, giving millions of skilled Indians higher wages temporarily, and résumé signalling permanently.
The current political weather around migration is brutal. Trump’s Make America Great Again campaign is thinly gift-wrapped “Make America White Again”, and he believes immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”. Germany’s AfD party suggests remigration of asylum seekers and foreign-born citizens to their homeland “is not a secret plan but a promise”. Britain’s Conservative Party proposes to send asylum seekers on a one-way trip to Rwanda. But we also know that the sale of adult diapers now exceeds baby diapers in Japan, UK hospitals are turning away patients due to staff shortages, OECD countries need 14 million more care workers by 2040, and customers struggle to get help from a real person in many American stores and hotels.
According to Oxford Professor Lant Pritchett, rich country migration political rhetoric — and therefore policy — is overweight on three issues. Economic pressures drive the “global war for talent” for technology professionals, moral imperatives drive the “movers of distress” refugee problem, and rule-of-law and political imperatives drive the “illegal immigration” challenge. These obstruct a legal solution for the diminished supply but increased demand for essential, manual, nonroutine, low but not unskilled workers in rich countries. Automation or offshoring are false gods in the political reconciliation of borders with ageing because they can’t do jobs like lab technicians, nursing assistants, home health aides, para-medics, truck drivers, food preparation, machine maintenance, security, cleaning and janitorial work, servers, chefs, and much else.
An exciting organisation and potential ally, LAMP (Labour Mobility Partnerships), believes it’s impractical to expect wealthy countries’ trucking, healthcare and hospitality industries to manage the international labour movement for their needs. It’s time to put some Indian diplomatic heft behind demonstrating the benefits to hosts, senders and workers of guest workers. In parallel, a professionalised, private sector labour mobility industry could address the concerns of wealthy country voters, including domestic worker impact, social tensions, orderly movement, timely return without visa overstays, social security benefits without paying costs, skill certification with worker-employer fit, worker exploitation, and security background checks. Immense risks of abuse mean this industry must be carefully regulated and monitored, and LAMP believes an ethical global mobility service could be a force for good while being a $30 billion industry.
India exported more services than Saudi Arabia did oil in 2021 — few economists believed a poor country could move the global needle on service exports or have services approach manufacturing export earnings. India’s diaspora remittances recently crossed an important quantitative milestone of $120 billion. India’s global brand differs from China’s; the complexity of software writing and inability to inventory services means higher physical visibility for our export workers. Recent worries that India’s accelerating overseas migration replicates our 1970s human capital loss are misplaced; “brain drain” was better than “brain-in-drain”. That drain has morphed into brain circulation with upsides in software exports, multinational global capability centres, global CEOs, unicorn board memberships, and venture capital. India has high legitimacy for anchoring a global guest worker programme. Software and services are siblings, more people speak English in India than in America, and democracies are natural friends (even if not allies).
Pritchett suggests higher global migration for skilled workers from developing countries is the most powerful tool for global prosperity but global policy attention to more and better rotational labour mobility has been scandalous. The UN Sustainable Goals have four goals for fish but none for expanding labour mobility. He believes mobility offers considerably higher global outcomes — over $ 2 trillion in additional incomes from $15-30,000 per worker per annum — than the anti-poverty programmes funded by development assistance ($180 billion) and philanthropy ($70 billion).
We know that illegal migration is poisoning the politics around global labour mobility. We also understand that politics often doesn’t change for a better option but changes when there is no option. Change has begun. Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s far-right prime minister, campaigned against migration but recently tripled temporary worker visa numbers because 25 per cent of her country is more than 65 years old. There is something in the cynical suggestion that “the [political] war on migration is meant to be lost”, but it is myopic to believe that Meloni and other rich country politicians can avoid some action on the fair and widely held notion among democratic voters that nations can’t exist without borders. Trump might pull America out of the refugee convention of 1951. Weak borders weaken support for legal immigration.
Legal migration cannot solve global poverty — every country must create high-wage jobs locally — but it helps by reinforcing that there are no poor people but people in poor places. There are six potentially poor productivity places, three physical and three conceptual: Countries, states, cities, industries, firms and skills. India is reducing poverty by transitioning its citizens to five higher productivity places: North and east to south and west, rural to urban, farm to non-farm, informal to formal firms, and illiterate to skilled. Global labour mobility facilitated by institutional infrastructure isn’t an idea whose time has come. But the time for legal and orderly doors in strong and tall walls is coming. India must take the lead because it has the most to gain.
Sabharwal is co-founder of Teamlease Services, and Tumbe teaches at IIM Ahmedabad
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08.03.2024
In 1937, the American book reviewer of Migrant Asia disagreed with its author, Lucknow University professor Radhakamal Mukerjee’s advocacy of higher migration to rich countries, suggesting “its objectivity is marred by a too evident anxiety” and “free migration is even less feasible than free trade”. Donald Trump may ensure political rhetoric remains unchanged 87 years later, but we believe that the needs of rich countries will eventually trump fear and India must take the lead in a thoughtfully designed guest worker programme that addresses the concerns of rich country voters. This programme could raise our annual inward remittances from $120 billion to $300 billion, giving millions of skilled Indians higher wages temporarily, and résumé signalling permanently.
The current political weather around migration is brutal. Trump’s Make America Great Again campaign is thinly gift-wrapped “Make America White Again”, and he believes immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”. Germany’s AfD party suggests remigration of asylum seekers and foreign-born citizens to their homeland “is not a secret plan but a promise”. Britain’s Conservative Party proposes to send asylum seekers on a one-way trip to Rwanda. But we also know that the sale of adult diapers now exceeds baby diapers in Japan, UK hospitals are turning away patients due to staff shortages, OECD countries need 14 million more care workers by 2040, and customers struggle to get help from a real person in many American stores and hotels.
According to Oxford Professor Lant Pritchett, rich country migration political rhetoric — and therefore policy — is overweight on three issues. Economic pressures drive the “global war for talent” for technology professionals, moral imperatives drive the “movers of distress” refugee problem, and rule-of-law and........
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