After any election, particularly after a clutch of state elections, there will be a lot of noise. The victors will celebrate loudly and there will be noisy recriminations among the followers of the losing parties. The relative calm after the results of elections in four states were announced was unusual. If this is evidence of mature behaviour of rival political parties, we may welcome it. If this means nonchalance on the part of the Congress, it is a matter of worry.
Let me begin with a mea culpa. In last week’s column, I called the election in Chhattisgarh in favour of the Congress. I was wrong. The BJP was the winner by a handsome margin of 54 seats to 35. The Congress claimed the state from the start and nearly all pollsters accepted the claim. I accepted it too, based on conversations with a number of people. Everyone but the BJP was surprised by the result. It turned out that the Congress’ vote share declined in general, SC and ST seats. Congress lost 14 ST seats it had won in 2018 to the BJP. That sealed its fate.
Not Unexpected
However, you will recall that I did not buy into the claims of the Congress in respect of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, the Gehlot government had performed well but anti-incumbency was a millstone around its neck. Eventually, 17 ministers of the Gehlot government and 63 Congress MLAs lost. That is an indication of the huge resentment against the ministers and MLAs. Evidently, internal surveys and inquiries did not reveal the extent of resentment. Ultimately, the habit of the Rajasthan voters, since 1998, to alternate between the BJP and the Congress prevailed.
In Madhya Pradesh, by all accounts, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government had, amidst notable failures and accusations of corruption, implemented a few schemes under which benefits were directly transferred to the beneficiaries, especially the women.
Observers point to the Ladli Behana Yojana and its sister schemes. The state was also a laboratory of Hindutva, and the RSS and its frontal organisations had struck deep roots and were very active. It required a massive organisation-driven effort to uproot the BJP government, and the Congress apparently did not mount that kind of effort. The BJP also swamped the state with ‘heavy weight’ candidates including Union ministers and serving MPs. The large ‘investment’ of time and resources paid off spectacularly with the BJP winning 163 seats to the Congress’ 66.
On Telangana, I had sensed a rural wave against the BRS government and predicted a surprise. Mr K Chandrashekar Rao is credited with securing a separate Telangana and introducing beneficial schemes, for example, the Rythu Bandhu that transferred money to farmers. But power concentrated in four pairs of hands (all of one family), allegations of corruption, Hyderabad-centric development, a self-isolated chief minister and massive unemployment created a wave against the government. The strong anti-incumbency was visible on the day of the Tukkuguda Congress rally following the meeting of the CWC on September 16, 2023 at Hyderabad. Mr Revanth Reddy, through an aggressive, no-holds-barred campaign, rode the wave and led the Congress to victory.
Narrow Gap
Despite the defeat in three Hindi-heartland states, the Congress’ vote share seems to be intact. The numbers speak for themselves (see box).
The good news is that bi-polar, competitive politics is alive. The Congress’ vote share in the four states is 40 per cent (approximately the same as in 2018) which augurs well for electoral democracy. However, the BJP gained in vote share in all four states and won most of the seats in the four capital cities and urban areas. The other good news is that the difference in vote shares is narrow, except in Madhya Pradesh. The gap in Chhattisgarh of 4.04 per cent was due to the shift of tribal votes. Of the 29 seats reserved for ST, BJP won 17 and Congress 11. The gap in Rajasthan of 2.16 per cent was narrower.
Elections have Changed
The gaps are not unbridgeable but it will require an understanding of the changed nature of elections. Elections are no longer speech vs speech, rally vs rally, policy vs policy or manifesto vs manifesto. Those are necessary but not sufficient. Elections are won or lost based on last-mile campaigning, booth management and bringing the dormant voter to the polling booth. These require huge investments of time, energy, and human and financial resources in each constituency which, by the results, the BJP did successfully.
Going into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the wind is behind BJP’s sail. Besides, the BJP will attempt to push the Hindutva agenda forward polarising the electorate even more, at least in the Hindi-speaking states. The casualties may be federalism, secularism, institutional freedom, freedom of the individual and the media, human rights, religious freedom, privacy and freedom from fear. At the end of the day, it is not enough that the Indian people can elect a government; it is important to protect the other pillars of a democracy from being blown away.
It is not enough that the Indian people can elect a govt; it is important to protect the other pillars of democracy from being blown away
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10.12.2023
After any election, particularly after a clutch of state elections, there will be a lot of noise. The victors will celebrate loudly and there will be noisy recriminations among the followers of the losing parties. The relative calm after the results of elections in four states were announced was unusual. If this is evidence of mature behaviour of rival political parties, we may welcome it. If this means nonchalance on the part of the Congress, it is a matter of worry.
Let me begin with a mea culpa. In last week’s column, I called the election in Chhattisgarh in favour of the Congress. I was wrong. The BJP was the winner by a handsome margin of 54 seats to 35. The Congress claimed the state from the start and nearly all pollsters accepted the claim. I accepted it too, based on conversations with a number of people. Everyone but the BJP was surprised by the result. It turned out that the Congress’ vote share declined in general, SC and ST seats. Congress lost 14 ST seats it had won in 2018 to the BJP. That sealed its fate.
Not Unexpected
However, you will recall that I did not buy into the claims of the Congress in respect of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, the Gehlot government had........
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