The Bharatiya Janata Party has secured a resounding victory in Rajasthan winning as many as 114 Assembly constituencies and securing nearly 42 per cent of the votes. The party has swept through Marwar, Mewar, Harauti and Braj regions of the state receiving considerable support from its traditional social support group of the forward “castes” and consolidating it with the support of the OBCs and the Adivasis. It has won as many as 22 of the 34 SC seats and 12 of the ST seats, making its victory emphatic. Interestingly, three of the Members of Parliament fielded by the BJP lost. On the other hand, the Indian National Congress has managed to win 67 seats and has received a 39.5 per cent vote share. Its presence is now limited to Baggad region in north Rajasthan and the Jat-dominated Shekhawati area. Many of the Congress ministers including Bulaki Das Kalla, Raghu Sharma, P S Khachariyawas, Govind Ram Meghwal and the Speaker Dr C P Joshi have been defeated. The party now appears to be drawing most of its support from the Dalits, Muslims and Adivasis.
The electoral outcome in the state has once again affirmed the revolving door phenomenon witnessed since 1993, where power has alternated between the two principal political poles. Congress can take some solace from the fact that as compared to the Assembly elections in 2003 and 2013, when it could win only 56 and 21 seats, respectively, its tally has gone up in this election.
How does one explain the Congress debacle? As the polls drew closer, there was a general perception that there was no visible anti-incumbency against the Ashok Gehlot-led government. It was felt that the flurry of welfare schemes, OPS and administrative reorganisation of the state, as well as the personal popularity of the CM, would enable Congress to defy the oscillation phenomenon. However, the results show that voters have not been enticed by the lure of schemes. The outcome seems to have established the limits of welfarism.
Implementation of the schemes and actual delivery to the targeted population are important factors, which somehow did not receive the required attention. At the same time, to carry the message of the welfare schemes, the party needed a powerful organisation and effective micro-management which it lacked. Anti-incumbency was more against key ministers and many sitting MLAs of the ruling party, who were not replaced by fresh blood. Voters seem to have given more importance to issues of corruption, poor law and order, paper leakages and atrocities against women. The tug-of-war between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot afflicted the party throughout its term in office. The issue remained unresolved, damaging the prospects of the party badly. Further, the star campaigners of the party, including the Gandhis, as well as the issue of the caste survey seem to have made no visible positive impact. One factor which could have helped Congress was a possible alliance or seat-sharing with political parties like the CPM, Bharatiya Adivasi Party and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party. In many constituencies, these parties have secured a sizable number of votes, resulting in the defeat not only of the official Congress candidate but also of the smaller political parties in the southern, northern and western parts of the state. The division of the “secular vote” has put paid to the prospects of the parties which have some ideological similarities. Thus, as an organisation, Congress failed to match up to its formidable adversary.
What led to the emphatic victory of the BJP? A few months before the elections, the party appeared to be lacking confidence due to factionalism and infighting. Efforts by the party organisation to confront the Congress on its alleged failures in different fields seemed to be half-hearted and intermittent. Refusal of the party high command to project any regional leader as the “face of the party” also appeared to spoil its chances. The party was finding it hard to challenge the “welfare narrative” of Congress.
One of the foremost reasons for the remarkable performance of the BJP is micro-management at the lowest level of political competition by the RSS and its front organisations. This network has again been successful in effectively spreading the “majoritarian agenda”. The political meetings and road shows of the top leaders, coupled with the hyper presence of social media groups, echoed this agenda throughout the state, which the Congress failed to counter. The first-time and young voters of the state were distraught about rising unemployment and also the repeated instances of paper leakages of important state recruitment examinations. The fact that there were more than 22 lakh new voters seems to have played a significant role in the BJP’s victory. Thus, what has enabled it to stage a grand comeback in the state is its well-oiled organisational machinery led by effective as well as disciplined leadership which had a clear message to convey to the voters.
What does the future portend for the state of Rajasthan? The Lok Sabha elections are just a few months away. The results of the state Assembly elections are a great morale booster for the BJP and if one takes into account the “honeymoon factor”, it is again likely to repeat its performance of the last two elections in 2014 and 2019 when it won all 25 seats. Congress is going to take time to recover from its defeat. But one factor that may give some relief to the party is that it has retained its vote share almost at the same level as in the 2018 elections. It has the capacity to bounce back due to the nature of its social support constituency. With effective alliances, Congress can give the BJP a tough challenge in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. The question is: Will the grand old party shed some of its weight to actually seize the right opportunities?
The writer is former Professor and Rajasthan State Coordinator, Lokniti-CSDS
Why Congress lost Rajasthan: Limits of welfare, BJP's organisational ability
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03.12.2023
The Bharatiya Janata Party has secured a resounding victory in Rajasthan winning as many as 114 Assembly constituencies and securing nearly 42 per cent of the votes. The party has swept through Marwar, Mewar, Harauti and Braj regions of the state receiving considerable support from its traditional social support group of the forward “castes” and consolidating it with the support of the OBCs and the Adivasis. It has won as many as 22 of the 34 SC seats and 12 of the ST seats, making its victory emphatic. Interestingly, three of the Members of Parliament fielded by the BJP lost. On the other hand, the Indian National Congress has managed to win 67 seats and has received a 39.5 per cent vote share. Its presence is now limited to Baggad region in north Rajasthan and the Jat-dominated Shekhawati area. Many of the Congress ministers including Bulaki Das Kalla, Raghu Sharma, P S Khachariyawas, Govind Ram Meghwal and the Speaker Dr C P Joshi have been defeated. The party now appears to be drawing most of its support from the Dalits, Muslims and Adivasis.
The electoral outcome in the state has once again affirmed the revolving door phenomenon witnessed since 1993, where power has alternated between the two principal political poles. Congress can take some solace from the fact that as compared to the Assembly elections in 2003 and 2013, when it could win only 56 and 21 seats, respectively, its tally has gone up in this election.
How does one explain the........
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