On January 30, a special court in Pakistan convicted and sentenced to 10 years imprisonment the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in the so-called cipher case. They were held guilty of mishandling and misusing a classified communication from the Pakistan embassy in the US to claim a conspiracy by the former army chief Qamar Bajwa with the Americans to oust Imran Khan from power.
The very next day, Imran and his wife were sentenced to 14 years imprisonment in the Toshakhana case on the charge of misappropriating a jewellery set received by him as Prime Minister from the Saudi crown prince. The court has also debarred them from holding public office for 10 years. The hurried proceedings in both the cases and non-action against irregularities in the handling of similar gifts by other holders of high offices are reminiscent of Nawaz Sharif’s summary convictions in the run-up to the 2018 election. More cases are pending against Imran Khan.
The above developments are further pointers that the coming election will be a mirror image of the 2018 polls. Imran Khan was the beneficiary of the army’s support then and Nawaz Sharif was at the receiving end of their wrath. By a curious twist of fate, the roles have been reversed. Imran Khan’s strong opposition to the army following his ouster and the rancour between him and the army chief Asim Munir have made him a persona non grata with the army. Since he gained considerable popularity thereafter, the army has fallen back upon its time-tested strong-arm tactics to put him and his party down.
The Election Commission has deprived Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) of its evocative election symbol, a cricket bat, alleging irregularities in holding intra-party elections — a charge of which almost all political parties in Pakistan would be guilty. This will force PTI candidates to contest as independents with different election symbols, causing confusion among their supporters. Many PTI candidates faced difficulties in filing their nomination papers and getting them accepted by the returning officers. The party has found it tough during election campaigning. Its attempts to carry out campaigns on social media have repeatedly been met with widespread disruption of internet services, reportedly by the authorities.
In contrast, since his return from exile, Nawaz Sharif has got relief in the judicial cases against him. The supreme court has cleared the path for him to contest the election by upholding the retrospective application of a law passed during Shehbaz Sharif’s prime ministership, which reduces the period of disqualification from holding public office, handed down to Nawaz by the apex court in 2018, from life to five years.
In view of the tight control of the army-led establishment on the electoral scene, the election campaign has remained lacklustre, with Bilawal Bhutto being the most active campaigner. He has been targeting Nawaz Sharif with an eye on reviving the PPP’s fortunes in Punjab, where it had remained marginalised in the last two elections. PML(N) started its poll campaign barely three weeks before the election, with Nawaz Sharif ceding the limelight largely to his charismatic daughter, Maryam. The challenge for all the parties is to woo the voters below the age of 35, whose number has surged to nearly 57 million from around 47 million in the last election. They are disenchanted with the old-style politics and constitute the core of Imran Khan’s support. A survey released by Gallup Pakistan recently shows Nawaz Sharif’s popularity has gone up significantly since June 2023, but no appreciable decline in Imran Khan’s following during the same period.
A not-so-latent actor in the ongoing political drama is the army chief, Asim Munir. Having consolidated his position within the army following the PTI violence against some army establishments in May last year, he has led from the front, including in areas such as economic management. The Shehbaz Sharif government gave him a prominent role in the newly created Special Investment Facilitation Council to attract foreign investment. In view of the large youth vote, he addressed a gathering of university students recently. Responding to a question about the inability of civilian governments to complete their five-year tenure (a phenomenon in which the army has been instrumental), he said that the tenure did not amount to a licence to misgovern for five years. His comment harked back to Pakistan’s tradition of the army sitting in judgement over civilian governments.
There is a widespread perception in Pakistan that no single party will get a majority, but that Nawaz Sharif is headed to become prime minister a fourth time. This will imply a role for the army in crafting the ruling majority by manipulating the legislators of the smaller parties beholden to it and the PTI members elected as independents. Nawaz Sharif is the most experienced and pragmatic politician. However, with his well-known proclivity to assert civilian supremacy, will he be the army’s choice for the prime ministership and if so, how long will such an arrangement last? We should get the answer to the first question in the coming days and weeks if PML(N) manages to get decent numbers.
Pakistan remains beset, inter alia, with a precarious economy, a rising wave of terror and vulnerability to climate-induced disasters. Its relationship with India remains fraught, that with the Afghan Taliban is close to a dangerous turn, and it had a serious clash with Iran recently — contained for now, but things could blow up again. It needs a broad political consensus and a strong government, functioning without the army’s interference, to deal effectively with these challenges. The forthcoming election is unlikely to move it closer to any of the above goals.
The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan
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Pakistan needs a broad political consensus and a strong government, functioning without the army’s interference
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06.02.2024
On January 30, a special court in Pakistan convicted and sentenced to 10 years imprisonment the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in the so-called cipher case. They were held guilty of mishandling and misusing a classified communication from the Pakistan embassy in the US to claim a conspiracy by the former army chief Qamar Bajwa with the Americans to oust Imran Khan from power.
The very next day, Imran and his wife were sentenced to 14 years imprisonment in the Toshakhana case on the charge of misappropriating a jewellery set received by him as Prime Minister from the Saudi crown prince. The court has also debarred them from holding public office for 10 years. The hurried proceedings in both the cases and non-action against irregularities in the handling of similar gifts by other holders of high offices are reminiscent of Nawaz Sharif’s summary convictions in the run-up to the 2018 election. More cases are pending against Imran Khan.
The above developments are further pointers that the coming election will be a mirror image of the 2018 polls. Imran Khan was the beneficiary of the army’s support then and Nawaz Sharif was at the receiving end of their wrath. By a curious twist of fate, the roles have been reversed. Imran Khan’s strong opposition to the army following his ouster and the rancour between him and the army chief Asim Munir have made him a persona non grata with the army. Since he gained considerable popularity thereafter, the army has fallen back upon its time-tested strong-arm tactics to put him and his party down.
The Election........
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