Written by Sushil Trivedi
At the time of writing this article, it is certain that the BJP is set to form the government in Chhattisgarh. Most of the exit polls indicated a comfortable return of the Congress party. Congress was so sure of its victory that its slogan was “abki bar, 75 par” — indicating that it would get more than 75 seats. The BJP was not expecting a clear verdict in its favour and was also surprised by the outcome of the election. It is a different point that now the BJP leaders may claim that they were always sure of a success of this magnitude.
The Chhattisgarh Vidhan Sabha has 90 seats, of which 29 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 10 for Scheduled Castes. During the Vidhan Sabha Elections in 2018, Congress had unexpectedly won 68 seats and the BJP, after ruling the state for 15 years, had won only 15. Congress had grabbed 26 ST and seven SC seats — remarkably, it won 11 out of 12 seats in the tribal-dominated and Naxal violence-affected Bastar region and all 14 seats in the tribal Surguja region. It may be noted that the Congress had won all the by-elections held in the state after December 2018 and at the time of going into the contest in 2023, the effective strength of the Congress had risen to 71 seats, while that of the BJP had dwindled to 13 seats. But now, some ministers of the Baghel Cabinet have lost the elections.
Since 2018, the state Congress, under the leadership of Bhupesh Baghel, has rejuvenated the organisation and set up an agenda for socio-economic reform. The Baghel model of giving a boost to the rural economy, promising higher MSP for paddy and minor forest produces, and creating an independent identity for Chhattisgarh, created a strong mood in favour of the party. While Congress was in electoral preparedness mode from day one, the state BJP, after its previous humiliating defeat, and marginalisation by its high command, was almost absent. Political analysts were unanimously giving the thumbs up to the Congress.
However, the central leadership of the BJP and its election juggernaut swung into action just before the polls. The Prime Minister visited the state at least eight times, held rallies and addressed huge public meetings. A horde of central ministers and BJP chief ministers camped in the state for many weeks to lead the election campaign. The BJP, sensing the mood of the rural electorate, promised higher MSP for paddy and announced a much higher price for purchase and bonus arrears to the farmers for the years 2013 and 2014. Most importantly, it announced a scheme to pay Rs 12,000 per year to married women. Acting quickly, it got forms filled by women for this scheme. The Congress realised the effectiveness of the BJP’s announcements and immediately announced a still higher purchase price for paddy, a loan waiver scheme for farmers and a scheme to pay Rs 15,000 per year to all the women without any discrimination. The BJP, surprisingly, brought back all the senior state leaders to the party forum and gave the tickets at the last hour. This strategy worked well.
This time, the BJP has performed exceedingly well in Bastar and has swept polls in Surguja. It shows that its strategy of wooing the tribals has succeeded on two counts. Firstly, it was able to convince the tribals of better protection and support under the BJP regime, and second, it succeeded in polarising the community in the tribal area. It was able to secure the support of Scheduled Castes and OBC voters.
The BJP played a very effective game of supporting smaller regional parties. It was expected that these parties would grab a portion of the SC and ST votes, supposedly the vote bank of the Congress. The BJP also tried to get some support from a section of disillusioned converted tribals. And no doubt, these smaller parties helped in the division of Congress votes, adversely affecting its prospects.
The BJP did not rely much on a hard Hindutva campaign in the state, but it worked hard to foment polarisation in some areas with success. Congress, earlier in the soft Hindutva mode, stressed mostly on rural development and regional identity during the election campaign. It was sure that there was no anti-incumbency — this is mainly responsible for its downfall.
The writer, a political analyst, is former state election commissioner Chhattisgarh
How BJP snatched victory in Chhattisgarh from an overconfident Congress
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03.12.2023
Written by Sushil Trivedi
At the time of writing this article, it is certain that the BJP is set to form the government in Chhattisgarh. Most of the exit polls indicated a comfortable return of the Congress party. Congress was so sure of its victory that its slogan was “abki bar, 75 par” — indicating that it would get more than 75 seats. The BJP was not expecting a clear verdict in its favour and was also surprised by the outcome of the election. It is a different point that now the BJP leaders may claim that they were always sure of a success of this magnitude.
The Chhattisgarh Vidhan Sabha has 90 seats, of which 29 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 10 for Scheduled Castes. During the Vidhan Sabha Elections in 2018, Congress had unexpectedly won 68 seats and the BJP, after ruling the state for 15 years, had won only 15. Congress had grabbed 26 ST and seven SC seats — remarkably, it won 11 out of 12 seats in the tribal-dominated and Naxal violence-affected Bastar region and all 14 seats in the tribal........
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