After the setback in Karnataka, there could not be a more handsome outcome for the BJP than the assembly results declared on Sunday. It has retained one state and gained two more. The two Congress governments that lost to the BJP were not exactly unpopular, the party made every effort to match the welfare populism of the BJP, both the defeated Congress governments spent considerable energy and resources on public outreach and yet, they were outsmarted by the BJP.
Election analysis will have to take a moment of deep breath to answer the how and why of the outcome. Meanwhile, we will come across reports of clever micro-management by the BJP and its deep organisational strength buttressed by RSS cadres. Much will be said about the party’s welfare schemes and the governance skills of its leaders. However, the BJP’s victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh should draw attention to the deeper tendencies which have laid the foundation of positive electoral outcomes for the party not just today but rather consistently over the past decade – the hiccups have been very few.
Electoral victories (and defeats) are often shaped by several factors. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s single most significant contribution to the craft of electoral management has been to situate his leadership at the centre of all electoral contests. Therefore, just as this writer attributed the BJP’s defeats to the ineffectiveness of the Modi factor in states like West Bengal or Karnataka, he admits that the current three-state victory belongs to Modi in large measure. In MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP completely sidelined state-level leaders. Modi’s persona dominated BJP’s campaign and the party did not project any leader as its CM candidate in these states – that did not affect its chances negatively, rather enhanced the party’s prospects.
Ever since Modi landed onto the national scene, the focus on his persona has remained an important element of BJP’s politics. It is necessary, therefore, to repeatedly remind ourselves that not just Modi the person but the hagiography about him shapes electoral choices as well as the political culture of contemporary India. Initially, Modi drew attention for his demagoguery. But along with that, he began representing many other things and continues to evoke multiple images. It may be appropriate to sum up these images as constituting Hindutva. It incorporates victimhood and aspiration at the same time and has space for asceticism as well as hankering after material acquisition. It includes public display of ritual practices as religiosity and seeks to reconcile Brahmanical vision with the claims of “lower” castes. The current formulation of Hindutva also includes the normalisation of violence as righteous nationalism and approves the idea of a strong authority as good governance. Finally, the Modi hagiography incorporates ideas of development that tie up with welfarist paternalism and a strong nation. The latest electoral outcome represents the success of this political culture with Modi as its mascot. Any electoral analysis now will need to take this development into account, whether the BJP wins an election or loses it.
Speaking from the @BJP4India headquarters. https://t.co/wlVWHoY3mF
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) December 3, 2023
With the Lok Sabha elections less than six months away, the importance of the outcome from the four assembly elections can hardly be exaggerated. Eighty-two LS seats are at stake in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana. BJP currently occupies 65 of them. One can, of course, point out six months can be a crucial period in politics. Yet, a party that retains a state and wrests two more states in straight two-party fights is bound to have a decided advantage in the coming elections. The results will not only embolden the BJP, they are also bound to demoralise the non-BJP opposition and create cracks among them.
Let us first look at how this may play out for the Congress party, internally. Following Karnataka, the party adopted a strategy of relying on state-level leaders. After the current losses, the party is likely to witness renewed factional fights and desertions in these states. It will be claimed — somewhat correctly — that not investing in a younger leadership in MP and Rajasthan was a mistake. In Chhattisgarh, the defeat will be seen as proof of the unreasonableness of overreliance on Bhupesh Baghel. It is immaterial as to which side is right in these intra-party battles. The jarring reminder of these outcomes for the Congress party will be that while it can win states—Punjab (2017), Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP (2018), and now Telangana—it continues to fail to retain power for the second term. The inevitable message is that rebuilding of the party is still awaited. This result will also weaken the national leadership of the party — its president and the party’s two star campaigners, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
The defeat will initiate two more debates. One will be about the rather abrupt abdication of the Bharat Jodo legacy and the other will be about ideological response to Hindutva. These rumblings will not be confined to the Congress party alone. They will have ramifications for the INDIA coalition. Despite its good showing in Telangana, the claims of the Congress to lead the coalition will be dented. The setback to the BRS at the hands of Congress will make it even more difficult for INDIA to enter into an understanding with it or other state parties such as the BJD. On the other hand, a weak showing by the Congress in the Hindi belt will mean a bleak future for the alliance. These factors will throw up awkward questions about leadership and seat sharing.
All this could make the Opposition lose focus. So far, the INDIA coalition had indicated that it will focus on the mismanagement of the economy and the reshaping of the public sphere in an inclusive and democratic manner. Once the haggling over leadership begins, the coalition’s larger objectives will be ignored. The coalition is yet to present a vision that seems a meaningful alternative to the BJP’s ideology. This ideological bankruptcy could create more rifts in the alliance.
For Rahul Gandhi, and INDIA coalition more generally, the setback will also pose questions about the efficacy of their social justice ideas and the demand for caste census as an important weapon to pin down the BJP. In any case, it is doubtful whether the caste question can halt Hindutva’s onward march. With the welfare policies of Bhupesh Baghel and Ashok Gehlot not being adequate to win elections and with the caste issue not giving any dividends, the Opposition will have to search afresh for central platforms on which its campaign can take off. The challenge will be to take on what Modi stands for without appearing to be engaging in mere Modi-baiting.
The writer, based in Pune, taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics
The BJP’s sweep: Modi is the mascot, party is the culture
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03.12.2023
After the setback in Karnataka, there could not be a more handsome outcome for the BJP than the assembly results declared on Sunday. It has retained one state and gained two more. The two Congress governments that lost to the BJP were not exactly unpopular, the party made every effort to match the welfare populism of the BJP, both the defeated Congress governments spent considerable energy and resources on public outreach and yet, they were outsmarted by the BJP.
Election analysis will have to take a moment of deep breath to answer the how and why of the outcome. Meanwhile, we will come across reports of clever micro-management by the BJP and its deep organisational strength buttressed by RSS cadres. Much will be said about the party’s welfare schemes and the governance skills of its leaders. However, the BJP’s victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh should draw attention to the deeper tendencies which have laid the foundation of positive electoral outcomes for the party not just today but rather consistently over the past decade – the hiccups have been very few.
Electoral victories (and defeats) are often shaped by several factors. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s single most significant contribution to the craft of electoral management has been to situate his leadership at the centre of all electoral contests. Therefore, just as this writer attributed the BJP’s defeats to the ineffectiveness of the Modi factor in states like West Bengal or Karnataka, he admits that the current three-state victory belongs to Modi in large measure. In MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP completely sidelined state-level leaders. Modi’s persona dominated BJP’s campaign and the party did not........
© Indian Express
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