- Despite its various challenges, the BJP-led National Development Alliance (NDA) will again be in power after the upcoming elections, with an increased vote share.
- Though it continues to enjoy majority support, fewer Indians are satisfied with the incumbent Narendra Modi government than in 2019.
- More voters consider unemployment and inflation far more critical than Hindutva or Ram temple.
- An overwhelming number of Indians believe India belongs to people of all religions, not just to Hindus.
- The singular factor that helps NDA overcome these challenges and come to power again is Modi.
- NDA is expected to retain its strength in the North and Western regions and gain more seats from the East, North East, and even South.
These could be the biggest takeaways from the country’s most reliable pre-poll survey conducted by the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), which met 10019 respondents across 19 states with three weeks remaining for voting to commence.
The most significant assumption to be arrived at from the survey is that with Rahul Gandhi as its leader, the opposition INDIA alliance cannot oust Modi from power. The Catch-22 is other than Rahul, no leader is even worth considering to challenge Modi. But this reflects not so much Rahul’s strength as the desperate state of the Opposition’s leadership in general.
This is despite the Modi government’s considerable loss of popularity compared to the last election. The primary reason for NDA’s advance to a hat trick is Modi’s leadership, which has no “clear and close” challenge. In other words, unless the Opposition finds a more capable leader, the BJP faces no serious threat to its power. If Modi is the choice for Prime Minister for 48% of respondents, Rahul is a distant second with 27%. Only 3% favours opposition leaders like Aravind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, and Akhilesh Yadav. The respondents chose these names themselves, as the survey proposed none.
Yet, the survey provides much succour to those worried about the growing communalism in the country. What’s more reassuring than knowing that an overwhelming number (79%) of Indians believe that this country belongs to all religions, not just Hindus? Isn’t it great that plurality is not yet passé in Modi’s India? Only 11% of the respondents think India belongs only to the Hindus. Almost half of them are most concerned about issues directly affecting their livelihood- unemployment (27%) and inflation (23%) and not Hindutva (2%) or Ram Mandir (8%).
Most significantly, the NDA fares much worse on most counts than they did in the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey of 2019. Those satisfied with the Modi government have fallen by eight percentage points. Though the government still enjoys the support of more than 50% of the respondents, it shows a relatively downward trend in urban areas, the poorer sections and the minorities. Those who want NDA to come to power again are only 5% more than those who don’t.
It is also good to know that most Indians still have common sense. They do not see the NDA or BJP as less corrupt or nepotistic than the Congress. Even those who vote for NDA aren’t happy with their party’s overworking “washing machines”, which enable them to welcome tainted leaders from other parties. There has also been a rise in people’s mistrust of institutions like the Election Commission, Electronic Voting Machines, and agencies like the Enforcement Directorate, CBI, etc, which do not reflect well on the BJP.
Many of these findings usually should send jitters to the NDA. However, the survey still predicts a comfortable and historic hat-trick for them with a lead of 12 percentage points over the Opposition. Significantly, the survey even foresees the BJP’s vote share increasing to 40% from 37.36% in 2019, which was the highest by a political party since 1989. The NDA’s combined vote share, too, will go up by 1% from 45% to 46%. Four in every ten voters said they would vote for BJP. However, Congress’s vote share, too, is expected to increase marginally from 19.46% in 2019 to 21%.
Most of these advantages are due to Modi, more than anything else. So what accounts for Modi’s unchallenged popularity? Significantly, not his promise to make India the world’s third largest economy or solve unemployment, inflation, or poverty but the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. According to most respondents who support the NDA, the Modi government’s best achievement is the Ram temple, and its worst record has been its failure to address unemployment, price rise and poverty. They have not been overtly enamoured by the Modi government's claims to enhance India’s international image, either. So, to be fair to him, Rahul Gandhi cannot be blamed for failing to match Modi in popularity. Rahul can't be expected to follow Modi's hardcore Hindutva agenda.
Another major takeaway from the survey is that the NDA’s popularity is much higher in rural India and among the upper classes, upper castes, and Other Backward Castes (OBC). It declines among town dwellers, the middle and lower classes, Scheduled castes and tribes, and minorities, especially Muslims.
As expected, the BJP’s vote share in 2024 will come from the North and West, although it could drop to 47% from 48% of 2019. This proves that the BJP has almost reached saturation in these regions and can only go down from now on. Congress’s vote share, on the other hand, will go up from 22% to 24% in these regions.
BJP’s best advance is seen in the East and Northeast, where its vote share is to jump by eight percentage points from 34 to 42. The spike is likely from West Bengal and Assam and should be mainly because of the split in anti-BJP votes in Bengal, where the INDIA allies Trinamool and the CPI(M)-Congress front are at loggerheads. Congress’s share is predicted to rise from 22 % to 24%.
But the real surprise comes from the South. The survey says that the BJP’s fervent efforts to breach its toughest wicket may succeed to some extent. Its vote share is to climb from 18 % to 25%, against Congress’s increase from 20% to 23%. The reasons cited for this southern surprise are the “stagnation of bipolarity in Kerala, the defeat of Bharat Rashtra Samiti in Telangana in the last assembly elections, and the BJP’s alliance with the Telugu Desam Party”.
Often, voters’ emotions decide elections rather than intellect. Hence, elections are said to be won not by actual facts but by those who dominate the “battle of narratives”. The survey shows that many grave political issues haven’t reached the people effectively. While 34% consider revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 a good step, at least 20% have not even been aware of such a measure. Similar ignorance is visible on issues like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC).
So, 2024 looks like a done deal for now. But what lies beyond? Is India to enter an even more intense Hindutva phase with measures like the UCC, as the NDA promised in its manifesto, the launch of a presidential system, or even a new constitution shorn of “shibboleths like Socialism and secularism”? Also on the anvil is the new census and delimitation exercise of 2026, which will redraw India’s parliamentary map by considerably increasing the Lok Sabha seats of pro-BJP states and reducing those of the South.
However, the survey also shows a gathering countercurrent. The BJP’s trump card of a singular leader need not be permanent insurance against growing discontentment with economic distress, falling enthusiasm for emotive issues, mistrust in public institutions, and apathy from the middle and poor classes and minorities. The scholars who led the CSDS survey observed, “How long a leader and a party can lead popularity charts with these indictments is a critical question.”
Even before the survey findings came, perceptive political thinkers like Ajay Gudavarthy have said that even if BJP wins in 2024, the Hindutva ideology appears to have entered a crisis period. The faltering economy and the short-lived mass euphoria over the Ram temple are clear signals. “The Hindutva ideology looked flawless, and with a photo finish, it could lay claim to its third term in office. Yet, in a strange and rather ironical way, Hindutva ideology looks exhausted than exhaustive, authoritarian than authoritative, more aggressive than authentic,” he wrote in Outlook magazine in an article titled “Will Hindutva survive after 2024?”. However, he also does not rule out the BJP getting a fresh breath of life by reinventing Hindutva to make it more civil or less neo-liberal. Paradoxically, not by itself but by the opposition through its transformative agenda, like the caste census!
6 min
Columns
View From My Window
Mar 30, 2024
4 min
Columns
View From My Window
Mar 17, 2024
5 min
Columns
View From My Window
Mar 11, 2024
6 min
Columns
View From My Window
Feb 25, 2024
6 min
Columns
View From My Window
Feb 18, 2024
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Rami G Khouri
Mort Laitner
Donald Low
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Nikkei Editorial
Michael Kwet
visit website
