Looking at Congress list of candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, I felt immensely proud to be a Malayali. But, as an Indian, it also fills me with much apprehension. I am proud to know that my small state, with just twenty seats, is being seen today by the highest leader of India’s secular forces as his best wicket. As in 2019, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is contesting again from Wayanad. Today, no other constituency in India appears as strong as Wayanad for him. What would be a better tribute to Kerala’s long tradition of secularism and religious harmony?
Most Indian prime ministerial candidates have entered the parliament from North Indian states. Since Nehru’s time, Uttar Pradesh was considered the prime minister’s turf. Until Rahul came to Wayanad, only thrice did Congress’s highest leaders test their electoral fortunes from the South. The most decisive occasion was in 1978, which helped Indira Gandhi to make a historic comeback. She won a bypoll from Chikmagalur in Karnataka, barely a year after her sensational rout in the post-emergency elections. In 1991, Narasimha Rao, who became Prime Minister after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, won from Nandyal in his native Andhra Pradesh with a Guinness record margin of 5 lakh votes. In 1999, Congress President Sonia Gandhi contested and won her first election from Amethi in UP and Bellari in Karnataka, though she retained the former after victory. Amethi, a long-time Nehru family pocket borough, was lost in 2019 when Rahul was defeated by BJP’s Smriti Irani by more than 55000 votes. It is yet unclear whether Rahul will contest from Amethi also this time.
But why does Rahul contesting from Wayanad make me apprehensive? It is because out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, only Kerala can offer a safe seat for India’s Grand Old Party’s highest leader. Not just for Rahul but also for his most trusted confidante, KC Venugopal, although Kerala is the latter’s home state, and Alappuzha was his constituency before. Another factor also aggravates my anxiety. Rahul, who is the Indian secular force’s commander-in-chief in its fight against the Hindutva juggernaut, is not taking on the BJP in Wayanad but the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is his partner in the INDIA alliance. His main opponent is not even from CPI(M) but CPI, which has traditionally been more soft to Congress than the former. And Rahul’s opponent in Wayanad? Annie Raja, Rahul’s trusted compatriot in most of his recent agitations in Delhi. She is also the wife of D Raja, CPI’s General Secretary and Rahul’s close friend.
Clearly, this speaks volumes about the precarious state of affairs inside the INDIA alliance. Every party in the alliance desperately seeks survival and to protect their respective home turfs above every other consideration. Kerala is the only state where Congress hopes to win about 15 seats and would not spare any effort to win as many seats as possible. One can indeed question Rahul about the propriety in fighting the Left. But then, the Left can also be questioned in the same way. If it considers the BJP as India’s gravest threat, why does it oppose the most important leader of the secular camp?
The Left’s answer would be more or less similar to that of Congress. After losing West Bengal and Tripura, Kerala is the only state where the Left can win a few seats. Following the CPI, the CPI(M) is also on the verge of losing its national party status and can’t ill-afford to lose even a single seat.
Therefore, the overarching pressures of realpolitik and a desperate struggle for survival drive the INDIA alliance parties much more than the need to fight the BJP unitedly. The conflict within INDIA between Congress and other partners in states where the latter parties are dominant is self-evident.
The candidate lists of both the UDF and LDF also display the desperation to win more than anything else. Both have fielded their most senior leaders with winnability as the only consideration. It is another matter whether these candidates will be as winnable as their parties think. Although the LDF candidates enjoy high stature in their respective parties, they look hardly capable of attracting votes from outside their front, like the non-committed sections, which is imperative for them to avert the debacle they suffered in 2019. Congress has also chosen a perceived safe path by fielding all but one of its sitting members. Pulling K Muraleedharan from Vadakara to contest from Thrissur and replacing T N Pratapan, the only sitting member denied ticket, indeed looks smart. Muraleedharan surely looks stronger than Prathapan to take on Suresh Gopi, who is considered the BJP’s most winnable candidate for whom Prime Minister Modi personally launched an advance campaign. Muraleedharan’s candidature appears as a special salvo fired against the BJP by the Congress immediately after his sister Padmaja Venugopal crossed over to the lotus brigade.
However, choosing Youth Congress state chief Shafi Parambil, a dynamic sitting MLA, in Vadakara against KK Shailaja does not look as smart. Not only may Vadakara turn a tougher wicket, but Congress will struggle to win back the Palakkad assembly constituency, which will fall vacant. Though he completed a hat-trick in Palakkad, Shafi’s margin in 2021 was less than 4000 against BJP’s “Metroman” E Sreedharan. Sadly, Congress couldn’t find anyone else other than Shafi to contest from Vadakara despite having leaders like Shama Muhammed or T Siddique. Shama would have been a good woman leader to take on Shailaja and an articulate parliamentarian. While Shama expressed dissatisfaction with the sparse representation of women in the Congress list, KPCC President K Sudhakaran hurled an insult at her.
Venugopal's candidature will have even more far-reaching consequences. With two more years remaining in his tenure, he will have to resign from his Rajya Sabha seat (from Rajasthan), which will surely go to the BJP, given its strength in the assembly. National Democratic Alliance (NDA), just four seats away from a majority (121 seats) in the Upper House, will inch closer to its objective. The BJP has been resorting to every possible manipulation towards this goal, as seen in the blatant cross-voting that recently occurred in Himachal Pradesh and UP. NDA’s only hurdle in getting all its planned bills passed in the Rajya Sabha is its lack of majority. Examples are the Land Reforms Bill and Triple Talaq Bill, which they managed to get passed only with support from non-NDA parties like Biju Janata Dal. Once the NDA gets a majority, whatever they need to get passed, including some fundamental changes in the Constitution, will face no roadblock. Hence, the supposedly reluctant Venugopal’s candidature, even if it proves successful in the Lok Sabha election, would only help NDA afterwards. Anantkumar Hegde, BJP’s six-time MP from Karnataka, has declared that they would do away with the word “secular” from the constitution’s preamble when they get a two-thirds majority in both the houses. By April, the NDA is almost certain to establish its sway in the Rajya Sabha.
The BJP’s list once again exposes its pathetic state in Kerala even while it boasts of inching towards a hat-trick in the Lok Sabha. Except for Rajiv Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram, it has no names capable of putting up even a semblance of challenge. Though the NDA may try to retain its vote share (13.7%) of last time, can it better its dismal record of 13 of the 20 candidates losing deposits?
However, it was interesting to see the children of Kerala’s prominent Congress leaders also following their counterparts from other states. BJP could get the progenies of two leaders who were the be-all and end-all of Kerala’s Congress party for the last half a century. Even if Padmaja Venugopal and Anil Antony may not win too many votes, they will indeed help the BJP's optics. Nevertheless, the cake goes to P K Kunhalikkutty’s cryptic comment about the children of Congress leaders moving to the BJP; “It doesn’t matter if the children go to the BJP, but I hope the fathers don’t!”
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Rahul in Wayanad: The Pride and Panic
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12.03.2024
Looking at Congress list of candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, I felt immensely proud to be a Malayali. But, as an Indian, it also fills me with much apprehension. I am proud to know that my small state, with just twenty seats, is being seen today by the highest leader of India’s secular forces as his best wicket. As in 2019, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is contesting again from Wayanad. Today, no other constituency in India appears as strong as Wayanad for him. What would be a better tribute to Kerala’s long tradition of secularism and religious harmony?
Most Indian prime ministerial candidates have entered the parliament from North Indian states. Since Nehru’s time, Uttar Pradesh was considered the prime minister’s turf. Until Rahul came to Wayanad, only thrice did Congress’s highest leaders test their electoral fortunes from the South. The most decisive occasion was in 1978, which helped Indira Gandhi to make a historic comeback. She won a bypoll from Chikmagalur in Karnataka, barely a year after her sensational rout in the post-emergency elections. In 1991, Narasimha Rao, who became Prime Minister after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, won from Nandyal in his native Andhra Pradesh with a Guinness record margin of 5 lakh votes. In 1999, Congress President Sonia Gandhi contested and won her first election from Amethi in UP and Bellari in Karnataka, though she retained the former after victory. Amethi, a long-time Nehru family pocket borough, was lost in 2019 when Rahul was defeated by BJP’s Smriti Irani by more than 55000 votes. It is yet unclear whether Rahul will contest from Amethi also this time.
But why does Rahul contesting from Wayanad make me apprehensive? It is because out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, only Kerala can offer a safe seat for India’s Grand Old Party’s highest leader. Not just for Rahul but also for his most trusted confidante, KC Venugopal, although Kerala is the latter’s home state, and Alappuzha was his constituency before. Another factor also aggravates my anxiety. Rahul, who is the Indian secular force’s commander-in-chief in its fight against the Hindutva juggernaut, is not taking on the BJP in Wayanad but the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is........
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