In a discussion with John Ivison, Ian Bremmer calls Canada's lack of concern about defence spending, 'short-termism and selfishness'
In this week’s video, John Ivison talks to Ian Bremmer, founder and president of political risk research and consulting firm, Eurasia Group, and its digital media arm, Gzero.
Ivison asked him if he thinks the West, including Canada, has woken up to the concerted efforts being made to assault democracy around the world. Bremmer called the lack of concern by politicians in Canada, and other laggard nations when it comes to defence spending, “short-termism and selfishness.”
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“I’m not so sure Canada’s woken up,” he said. “I mean, Canada spends about 1.3% of their GDP on defense. And I know that Trump said that if you don’t spend 2%, that Russia should be allowed to invade you. But of course, the reason why Canada doesn’t care about this is because the Russians aren’t close to Canada. I mean, the countries that are on the front lines of NATO are already spending far more than 2% of their GDP on defense. Poland, the Baltic states, the Nordics. Why? Because they are plenty concerned that this is a threat to them.
“Canada has been allowed to free-ride by dint of its geostrategic position, but also because there are no consequences. I mean, it’s not as if the United States has told Canada you’re going to be suspended from NATO membership if you don’t spend, or you’re not going to have access to U.S. intelligence, or you’re not going to have access to the best U.S. military equipment, or you are going to be kicking out of military training and exercises. None of that’s happened (but) you know maybe it should. Maybe over decades there should have been a level of pressure (that) would have forced the Canadians to take it more seriously.”
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He said Canada is only one country that has failed to take defence seriously. Germany not only neglected its defence spending but aligned its energy security with Russia.
“The former chancellor of Germany was on the board of the Russian company making money off of that, (Gerhard Schroder)….So, I mean, again, this is not something that is singular to Canadian culture. It’s just short-termism and it’s selfishness.”
Bremmer said the risks to the democratic system are growing, most clearly in the U.S., “the only major democracy in the world today that’s incapable of holding a free and fair election that is seen as legitimate by all of its population”.
Bremmer said even Brazil, which has had similar problems to America, made it clear that former president Jair Bolsonaro, could not run again.
“So the Brazilians are showing that they have more capacity to be resilient in response to this kind of a challenge than the Americans have.”
Ivison asked about the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine that is being held up by MAGA Republicans in the House of Representatives.
Bremmer said the real problem is the dysfunction of the institution.
“It’s not like the Republicans oppose the $60 billion. They mostly would be happy to get more money for Ukraine, more weaponry for Ukraine. But the far right and the so-called Freedom Caucus can hold the Speaker (Mike Johnson) hostage,” he said. “He is an accidental Speaker. It was a number of votes that continued to show failures to launch after Kevin McCarthy was unceremoniously booted from the post for also trying to do the job of actually legislating. That’s the problem. So, number one, the US is much more divided and that is reducing America’s ability to act as a leader on the global stage. And number two is willingness to engage in support for Ukraine is becoming more politicized in the United States, and that will grow as Donald Trump secures, inevitably, the Republican nomination in the coming weeks.
“(Still) if you made me bet, it’s close, it’s a close call, but if you made me bet I actually think they’ll get something done. I do.”
Turning to Gaza, Ivison asked about the consequences of an Israeli ground assault on Hamas’ last stronghold in Rafah, near the Egyptian border.
Bremmer said such an attack would see a dramatic escalation in excess deaths. “But the perception inside Israel is very, very different from the perception in other countries around the world. Let’s go back to October 7th. We are talking about the worst violence against Jews anywhere in the world since the Holocaust. Everyone said ‘never again’. And after that violence, the level of anti-Semitism was immense. After that violence, the level of isolation that the Israelis felt, even before they started fighting on the ground in Gaza, was really significant. And the entire Israeli population has come together around this,” he said. “They don’t like (Israeli prime minister, Benjamin) Netanyahu. They want him out. They see him as responsible for taking his eye off the ball in terms of national security. But remember that at that music festival, the young men and women that were tortured and raped and killed were some of the most peace-oriented Jews in the country. These were not settlers in the West Bank…Now, that population has been completely radicalized against Hamas and against the broader Palestinian population. There is very little support in Israel for a two-state solution. There’s very little support to allow the Palestinians the military capabilities to defend themselves. And so, at the same time that you are radicalizing the Palestinian population inside Gaza, you’re also radicalizing the Israeli Jewish population. So we are very, very far from an end to this war.”
Bremmer said he thinks a temporary ceasefire is close that will see more hostages released. “But that won’t end the war.”
Ivison asked if the Israel is in a position to declare victory, by pointing to the dismantling of 18 of 24 Hamas battalions, progress that could allow Netanyahu to claim it doesn’t have the military capability to govern Gaza any longer.
“I’d like to see that. I don’t see that, honestly,” Bremmer said. “First of all, the Israelis have not been able to either capture or kill Hamas’s leadership on the ground in Gaza, the military, the operational leadership, and that’s clearly a problem. Also, there continue to be rockets launched against Israel from the north of Gaza this week. If you are Israeli and you are dealing with those air defense sirens every day, every night, it doesn’t feel like Hamas has no operational capabilities, irrespective of what the IDF is saying. And in terms of Rafah, they also continue to have extensive tunnel networks and infrastructure from which the command and control of Hamas has been facilitated.”
“My view on this is, if it’s not Hamas, it will be some replacement of Hamas that will come back and be seen as governing/representing the Palestinians, either officially or unofficially. It’s very hard to kill an idea.
“In order to have a sustainable Palestinian population that will live in peace with Israel, they need an opportunity for themselves. They need hope. They need a place to live, a place that is theirs, a place they feel secure, and a place where they can be educated and they can actually have a livelihood. They’re far, far farther from that than, frankly, at any point since Israeli independence. And they’re farther from that not only in Gaza but they’re also farther from that even in the West Bank, where today more settlements are getting built. Their livelihoods are becoming more and more impossible. So again, I wish I could say that common sense and long-term thinking could prevail here. I don’t see it. I don’t think we’re close to it.”
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