There are concerns that Conservatives are flirting with a Canada First foreign policy, but the party maintains it supports Ukraine
The Liberals rarely miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity but by blasting the Conservatives for opposing an update of the Canada-Ukraine free trade deal they have outmaneuvered the Opposition for once.
On Monday, the Conservatives voted in favour of their own amendment to remove any reference to carbon pricing in the Canada-Ukraine deal, but most of them appear to have outlived any enthusiasm for the project. The amendment was easily defeated by the rest of the House, yet it may have cemented the impression in the minds of any watching Canadians that the Conservative party no longer supports Ukraine.
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That’s a message the Liberals are keen to drive home.
A new online Liberal ad, featuring Justin Trudeau and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is accompanied by a line saying while Ukraine is bravely defending freedom and democracy, “Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are importing far-right American style politics and refusing to stand with our ally in their time of need.”
Supporters of Ukraine thought their worst fears were confirmed last week when an NDP motion calling for Russia to free dissident Vladimir Kara-Mirza was refused unanimous consent by the Conservatives. Andrew Scheer, the Conservative House leader, later tweeted that it was a mistake due to confusion in the House and the motion was passed when it was moved a second time. “Conservatives will always stand in support of freedom and human rights around the world and we reiterate our condemnation of Vladimir Putin (and) his illegal war of aggression against Ukraine,” he said.
The Conservatives have since called for the government to send surplus weapons to Ukraine — specifically, 83,000 CRV7 rockets that are slated for disposal.
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Yet, there remain concerns that Poilievre’s Conservatives are flirting with a Canada First foreign policy, similar to Donald Trump’s isolationism.
An Angus Reid Institute poll, released Tuesday, suggested that the number of Conservative voters who say Canada has done enough for Ukraine has more than doubled from 19 per cent two years ago to 43 per cent now. There has been an increase among Liberal and NDP supporters too, but nowhere near the level that show up in the Conservative column.
Those who intend to vote Conservative are half as likely as Liberal voters to want Canada to provide military support to Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
The same poll suggested three times as many Canadians think the Conservative vote against the free-trade deal is a net negative for Canada’s worldwide reputation as think it is a positive.
How were the Conservatives thrown off balance so badly? Is there a real danger of a nativist foreign policy emerging?
There is no doubt there is a genuine fatigue with the war in Ukraine, especially among Conservative supporters. One MP said he has seen push back on social media and suspects the influence of Fox News on Canadian households that receive it.
Poilievre’s team is conscious that Maxime Bernier and his People’s Party are campaigning on the message that Canada should never have gotten involved in the war.
But MPs and strategists say there remains majority support for Ukraine in the party and the opposition to the trade deal genuinely is about the fixation on the carbon tax.
Poilievre intones his domestic priorities as if they were commandments inscribed on tablets of stone by the finger of God: that a government led by him will repeal the carbon tax, build more homes, fix the budget and stop crime.
But the Liberal performance on foreign policy and defence is so underwhelming that the Conservative leader should be leading on those issues more often.
The continual denigration of “MAGA-style politics” is hardly a smart move, with polls showing Donald Trump has a better than 50/50 shot at the White House (as former Canadian ambassador to Washington, David MacNaughton, pointed out in an interview with the Toronto Star on the weekend).
On Ukraine, Poilievre could reframe the issue by suggesting that supplying Kyiv with weapons made in Canada could prove a win-win.
Wayne Eyre, the outgoing chief of the defence staff, told a House of Commons committee last fall that Canada has not produced one additional round of ammunition since Russia invaded Ukraine and is down to a few days’ supply if it was forced to fire its big guns at the same rate as Ukraine.
Canada has the capacity to produce 3,000 155-millimetre shells a month under its Munitions Supply Program that contracts with five private sector companies to maintain stocks and provide a surge capacity in times of emergency. The largest supplier, General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Canada, operates three plants in Quebec, employing 1,500 people. Since February 2022, production has not increased, Eyre said. Meanwhile, the Americans plan to boost shell production from 14,000 a month to 100,000 a month by the end of next year, handing out contracts to companies including IMT Defence, an engineering firm based in Ingersoll, Ont.
The government says it has been in discussions with suppliers but that it is a long process and there is no quick fix.
That may be the case, but during the war in Afghanistan the Munitions Supply Program quintupled production of ammunition.
The real hurdle is the lack of political will.
Making life more affordable, balancing the books and ensuring people feel safe in their communities are the issues that will win the next election.
But Canadians also want to know that a prospective prime minister will stand in defence of democratic values against Russia and China.
Canadians are unlikely to forget that Poilievre wants to axe the tax, if he uses some questions in the House to hammer the Liberals on their performative response to the war in Ukraine.
National Post
jivison@criffel.ca
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