Gill’s latest career move is a gamble. The Conservatives know they need a majority, or possibly face a formal Liberal-NDP coalition
When the dust settled after the 2011 federal election, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives had secured a first majority government, after minorities in 2006 and 2008.
The road to majority ran through the Greater Toronto Area, where the party added 19 seats: nine in the 416 area code of downtown Toronto (where it previously held none) and 10 more in the 905 commuter belt (where it now held 21 of 22 seats).
Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.
Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
Don't have an account? Create Account
The GTA victories contributed to a national seat count that rose to 166 from 143. The party elected 73 MPs in Ontario, up from 51, by securing 44 per cent of the vote in Canada’s most populous province.
Coincidentally, a new poll by Abacus Data has the federal Conservatives back at 44-per-cent support in Ontario.
If that level of support is maintained to the next election, Pierre Poilievre’s party is on course to double its seat count from the current 36.
The 2011 election was a case of preparation meeting opportunity. The Conservatives had woken up to the fact that the leap forward to majority necessitated an ethnic-outreach strategy that went beyond the tokenism of the past.
Then-immigration minister Jason Kenney spent many weekends in the banquet halls of multicultural communities, spreading the message that the Conservatives shared their entrepreneurial spirit and family values. The late finance minister Jim Flaherty acted as GTA lieutenant, spending the election campaign at GO Transit stations meeting commuters. Policies were narrowcast at target communities, such as ending visa requirements from Poland and Taiwan.
This newsletter tackles hot topics with boldness, verve and wit. (Subscriber-exclusive edition on Fridays)
By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.
A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.
The next issue of Platformed will soon be in your inbox.
We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again
The Conservatives may have thought that they discovered the Holy Grail of Canadian politics and that their alliance with conservative ethnic voters would cement their dominance in perpetuity.
If they believed that, they were quickly disabused of it in 2015 when the Liberals swept the 905 and kicked the Tories out of most of their seats in the 416.
Justin Trudeau and his Ontario lieutenant, Navdeep Bains, appealed to multicultural communities with a promise to double family reunification numbers and invest in public transit to reduce commute times. Trudeau subsequently appointed Bains and three other Sikhs to his first cabinet.
However, it is the lack of brand loyalty that looks set to benefit Poilievre at the next election. The multicultural vote is very much up for grabs.
“The Sikhs, in particular, are very politically astute and like to side with the party in power or perceived to be coming into power,” said one Conservative who has been involved in ethnic outreach for decades.
He said the momentum is apparent in fundraising, where the Conservatives raised $35 million last year, their best ever total in a non-election year.
As part of his concerted effort to replicate the success of 2011, Poilievre has persuaded his old caucus colleague Parm Gill to leave his post as Ontario’s minister of red tape reduction for the rather less secure position of Conservative candidate in the Liberal-held riding of Milton.
At face value, it seems a poor trade-off: giving up a job as a sitting provincial cabinet minister to become a mere candidate.
But Gill’s task is not only to take Milton from Adam van Koeverden but to prepare the ground for a Conservative sweep through Brampton and Mississauga.
If he is successful, he is well-positioned to be the senior minister responsible for the GTA, in similar fashion to Flaherty.
Gill is a former MP who defeated Liberal Ruby Dhalla in the Brampton—Springdale riding in the 2011 sweep but was himself defeated in the new riding of Brampton North by Ruby Sahota in 2015. He has represented Milton at Queen’s Park since 2018.
Poilievre has already made his own inroads in the Toronto area, attending events and micro-targeting communities like the Tamils, where he has promised a Conservative government will call for Sri Lanka’s former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to answer for alleged war crimes before an international court.
And, as Kenney did, he has pointed out that many ethnic communities are closer to the Conservatives when it comes to public safety and social issues.
Gill has a long history of speaking out on both.
As the MP for Brampton—Springdale, he introduced a private member’s bill that made it a crime to target someone for recruitment into a gang, which passed into law in 2014.
As a provincial candidate in Milton, he was a vocal critic of the Ontario Liberal government’s changes to the sexual education curriculum that he said were an attack on family values.
Gill’s latest career move is a gamble. The Conservatives know they have to secure a majority, or face the prospect of a formal Liberal-NDP coalition.
But it is a calculated gamble. The same Abacus poll that has the Conservatives at 44-per-cent support in Ontario, suggests 85 per cent of the population thinks it is time for a change of government. Betting against those kinds of numbers has never been a profitable endeavour.
jivison@criffel.ca
Twitter.com/IvisonJ
Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.
Tips on maintaining your sleep schedule during time changes
If you enjoy a freshly baked pizza and love spending time outdoors, you’re in for a treat. This guide will welcome you to outdoor pizza ovens, exploring various options that will help you transform your backyard into a pizzeria. Whether you’re a novice pizza chef or a seasoned outdoor cooking enthusiast, there’s something here for everyone. Visualize yourself eating the mouthwatering homemade pizzas in your outdoor space. Let’s get cooking!
The bob has been a dominate hair trend this season. Nadia Albano shares a few things to consider before making the cut.
Three buzzy new beauty products we tried this week.
Canadian chef, entrepreneur and actor Matty Matheson opts for homegrown style for red-carpet awards season.
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Andrew Mitrovica
Mort Laitner
Nikkei Editorial
Rami G Khouri
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
visit website
