This government should be judged on its results not intentions, but its investment in drones for Ukraine has bought it temporary goodwill
This time last year, James Challice expressed his frustration at the Canadian government’s purchase of a surface-to-air missile system to send to Ukraine.
“I can’t believe that Canada opted not to send the best drones on the market and instead spent $400 million on NASAM (National Advanced Surface to Air Missile system). Do you know how many drones they could have sent (for $400 million)?”
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The Canadian Forces veteran was fighting with a Ukrainian Army brigade and welcomed any kind of military aid. But what he and his colleagues really wanted was drones, the weapon of choice in the Ukraine conflict.
The Ukrainian government agreed. In July 2022, Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, wrote to Canada’s then defence minister, Anita Anand, saying that a particular Canadian-made drone, the Teledyne Flir Skyranger R70, was “the only product on the market that satisfies all our operational requirements.”
Nearly two years after that letter was sent, Bill Blair, the new defence minister, announced Monday that Canada is donating 800 Skyranger R70s to Ukraine, at a cost of $95 million.
This is good news. The Skyranger is generally considered one of the best multi-rotor drones in the world, offering thermal imaging that allows it to operate in bad weather and darkness, and signal intercept capability that means it can identify where enemy phones are.
It is a capability that the Canadian Forces does not have but should.
However, it is news that was a long time coming. A National Post request asking the government why the process had dragged on for over two years was not returned by press time. It is possible that it got caught up in the U.S. process that governs international arms sales. Or it may have been typical Canadian procurement bureaucracy, where the lights are always at amber.
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Blair said the first drones will be delivered this spring. “They’re in a hurry, and so are we,” he said, without a hint of irony.
Meanwhile, the minister admitted that the NASAM system is caught up in the congressional gridlock in the U.S. He said Canada joined the Americans in a purchasing group that was subject to congressional approval. “We gave them $400 million … We are pushing as hard as we can to get the system delivered. The Americans themselves have run into political-process challenges that they’re working on,” he said at a press conference in Etobicoke, Ont., on Monday.
For Ukraine’s frontline soldiers, there will be great celebrations when the first Skyrangers arrive later this spring.
“This is a drone war,” Challice told National Post last year. “Most deaths are from drones, either directly or from corrective fire from mortars. We will not move without drone surveillance.”
He said he feared drones more than tank artillery. “I know that when I see a drone with no munitions, the artillery is coming, so there is no standing still anymore. It’s changed the art of defensive lines.”
The conflict in Ukraine has reinforced many of the modern theories about the future of war: that combat brigades are increasingly vulnerable to longer-range and deadlier munitions, guided by sensors and drones. As one U.S. general observed, reiterating Challice’s point, soldiers are fighting under constant observation, and there is no sanctuary.
If drones are the eyes in sky, it is the artillery that provides the deadly fallout, and Ukraine does not have nearly enough of it.
The importance of ammunition supply was clear in Ukraine’s withdrawal from the town of Avdiivka because of a lack of munitions.
Ukraine’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov, wrote to his European Union counterparts saying that Russian troops outnumber the Ukrainian Armed Forces three to one and shortage of weapons is getting worse. Ukraine needs 200,000 155-millimetre shells a month, he said.
Blair admitted that Canada needs to do more to increase its ammunition production. “Hopefully, I will have more to say on that in the not-too-distant future,” he said.
An article by CBC’s Murray Brewster this week said that the government had signed off on a $200 million plan to build production lines that would manufacture the M795 variant of 155-millimetre ammunition shells but backed off when industry estimated that the project would actually cost $400 million.
Brewster said federal officials are skeptical that there will be enough long-term demand to justify ramping up production, which takes optimism to the point of recklessness.
Even if the government does strike a deal to increase ammunition supplies, the industry forecasts it will take three years for production lines to become operational — likely too long a timeline to help Ukraine.
Blair said that, as a result, he has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Czech Republic, which has said it has “found” hundreds of thousands of shells that could be transferred to Ukraine, if other countries help with funding.
While progress remains stuttering, Blair’s press conference — and the repeated use of the phrase “production is deterrence” — suggests that the Liberals may have been roused from their complacency.
“The world has changed to become a more dangerous place,” he said. “Canada recognizes that it must do more, and we have said we will do more. My prime minister has committed to reaching the (NATO) agreement made at Vilnius of two per cent (of GDP spent on military).
“It is important we do it well and do it quickly, and do it in a way that recognizes the financial and fiscal situation. But it is a priority,” he said.
Experience suggests this government should be judged on its results, not its intentions. However, its drone investment has bought it some temporary goodwill.
National Post
jivison@criffel.ca
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