Cushy jobs no doubt await François-Philippe Champagne in the private sector. Or perhaps a run at the Quebec Liberal leadership ...

Let’s say, just for a moment, that you are François-Philippe Champagne.

It’s no secret you’ve had your eye on being prime minister for quite some time, maybe since you were a kid. Friends and colleagues have said as much over the years. “If Canadians believe in what I can do, I will certainly give it a shot,” you told one interviewer almost 15 years ago. You’ve been a bit more discreet of late, for reasons of prudence and party discipline, but still readily admit to being fiercely ambitious. In the usual parlance of eye-on-the-prizers you want to “serve the nation” and “give back.”

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You spent two successful decades in private business, largely outside Canada, before running for office. You were named a “Young World Leader” by the World Economic Forum before age 40. A mostly admiring feature article in politico.com identified you as “a U.S.-educated corporate lawyer turned politician” who was “outplaying America” as industry minister. “I would have thought for a guy like that, the sky’s the limit,” mused a former deputy U.K. prime minister. The first line of a much-cited 2009 Globe and Mail profile opened: “François-Philippe Champagne. Remember that name — you’ll be hearing it again.” And you’re from Shawinigan! What could be better?

To be blunt about it, you’ve done a lot more with your life — and without the family wealth and pedigree — than your current boss had when he set out to be party leader. That same boss, as it happens, is deeply unpopular at the moment and looking decidedly vulnerable. The latest Nanos poll shows a full three per cent of respondents figure Justin Trudeau gives Liberals their best chance of retaining power, while almost 40 per cent think he should step down. Is it all a sign that your moment is coming? If you just wait a bit longer, another year or so, will the opportunity tumble into your lap?

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This is not intended as an article about Champagne’s qualifications to seek the top job, but about the sort of dilemma that arises for politicians in a government that’s long in the tooth and looks headed for the exit, possibly taking them with it. Do you bail now and get the best deal you can? Carolyn Bennett snapped up a cushy offer to be ambassador to Denmark, opening her safe seat to a former top staffer of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Former justice minister David Lametti quit to join a prestigious law firm.

Inconveniently enough, for Champagne there’s a complication. There’s talk that he’s being courted by Liberals in his home province to seek the Quebec leadership. Nothing’s ever certain in politics, but his chances of winning the job have to look good: the party is in terrible shape, the previous leader has stepped down, Champagne’s name and profile would make him a star candidate, and it’s not like there’s a lot of obvious competition, unless you count Denis Coderre, the twice-rejected former mayor of Montreal.

Though Liberals were decimated in the 2022 Quebec election, seat calculations suggest a strong rebound is possible. Premier François Legault’s popularity has plummetted. The Parti Québécois is now leading polls. There’s still work ahead, but a PQ government would raise the ghost of sovereignty wars, and sovereignty is the Liberals’ bread and butter. It worked for Jean Charest, and he was a Tory, for cripe sake.

Being Quebec premier isn’t nearly as prestigious as being prime minister, but what are the prospects on the federal front? Trudeau says he’s not going anywhere, despite his dismal ranking with Canadians. It’s still 18 months before he’s forced to get serious about calling an election, if he can prolong the deal with New Democrats that’s been propping up his government. And who knows what cliff the Conservatives could fall off between now and then?

Does an ambitious politician just wait around to find out? Champagne’s already held plenty of cabinet posts. He’s been minister of trade, minister of infrastructure, minister of foreign affairs and now minister of innovation, science and industry. What’s next, minister of finance? Right, be the guy responsible for explaining why, once again, Ottawa will ignore all the warning signs and keep churning out deficits, running up the debt and announcing new spending plans after promising not to do so? Yeah sure, thanks a lot. Except he wants to further his career, not end it.

Interest on the federal debt has doubled in just two years under Freeland, whose eager-beaver spending habits look ever-more ill-advised. The Fraser Institute calculates interest payments this year will rival the total federal bill for health-care transfers to the provinces, and already costs “much more” than the child benefits programs of which the government is so proud.

Any reasonable person would say no thanks. But politics isn’t about being reasonable. At upper levels, there’s a heap of ambition, ego and enormous self-regard involved in “giving back” via politics.

So, jump to the Quebec job or hang around and hope the Ottawa position comes open? “If you don’t seize the opportunity as it comes, it’s not going to come again,” Champagne asserted in December. He was referring to Canada’s eager bidding for battery plants, but the point may apply in more ways than one. Though Quebec won’t pick a new leader until the spring of 2025, barely a few months before a federal race is due, there isn’t a ton of time to dawdle.

Halting an object in free fall takes more than just some clever public relations, a few photo ops and pledges of renewed vigour. Liberals have shown little skill at it thus far. The prime minister’s determination to cling to his job no matter how ugly the prospects could impact a great many careers outside his own and the small coterie of personal aides and assistants who egg him on. He may not want to think about that, but they have to.

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QOSHE - Kelly McParland: A possible future PM's dilemma — bail now or hope for a Liberal miracle? - Kelly Mcparland
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Kelly McParland: A possible future PM's dilemma — bail now or hope for a Liberal miracle?

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15.02.2024

Cushy jobs no doubt await François-Philippe Champagne in the private sector. Or perhaps a run at the Quebec Liberal leadership ...

Let’s say, just for a moment, that you are François-Philippe Champagne.

It’s no secret you’ve had your eye on being prime minister for quite some time, maybe since you were a kid. Friends and colleagues have said as much over the years. “If Canadians believe in what I can do, I will certainly give it a shot,” you told one interviewer almost 15 years ago. You’ve been a bit more discreet of late, for reasons of prudence and party discipline, but still readily admit to being fiercely ambitious. In the usual parlance of eye-on-the-prizers you want to “serve the nation” and “give back.”

Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.

Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Don't have an account? Create Account

You spent two successful decades in private business, largely outside Canada, before running for office. You were named a “Young World Leader” by the World Economic Forum before age 40. A mostly admiring feature article in politico.com identified you as “a U.S.-educated corporate lawyer turned politician” who was “outplaying America” as industry minister. “I would have thought for a guy like that, the sky’s the limit,” mused a former deputy U.K. prime minister. The first line of a much-cited 2009 Globe and Mail profile opened: “François-Philippe Champagne. Remember that name — you’ll be hearing it again.” And you’re from Shawinigan! What could be better?

To be blunt about it, you’ve done a lot more with your life — and without the family wealth and pedigree — than your current boss had when he set out to be party leader. That same boss, as it happens, is deeply unpopular at the moment........

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