During Tucker Carlson's controversial interview with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president signaled that Russia, despite its increasing advantage on the battlefield, is open to negotiations with Ukraine and its Western backers. After Kyiv's relatively unsuccessful counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, Ukraine and the United States must approach the Russo-Ukrainian conflict pragmatically, adjusting their expectations for victory. Rather than continuing to send Ukrainian troops into a meat grinder in cities like Avdiivka, Ukraine and the West should work quickly to forge a ceasefire before negotiation terms worsen.
Leadership in Ukraine is facing internal conflicts after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed his popular top general, Valery Zaluzhny. "We must make this year a crucial one," President Zelensky said. "Crucial for achieving Ukraine's goals in the war. Russia cannot simply accept the existence of an independent Ukraine—the very fact of our country's independent life." Yet, given arms and aid setbacks and shifting Ukrainian public sentiment toward the war, achieving maximalist goals like recovering all of its internationally recognized territories will be an insurmountable task for Kyiv.
Meanwhile, at the beginning of this year, Russia launched a record number of drones in Ukraine, and Kyiv's success rate in bringing down Russian missiles has been on the decline. Moscow has forced Ukraine onto the back foot as its military has fortified its positions, become better at protecting vehicles, and outproduces Ukraine in drone and loitering munitions.
Given that the United States has run out of money for Ukraine and cannot send the ammunition and missiles that the government in Kyiv needs to fend off Russia's invasion, the military gaps between Ukraine and Russia will stay wide. Additionally, EU officials have admitted that Europe cannot replace U.S. military aid. A change in strategy is desperately needed to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty.
First of all, rhetoric suggesting Kyiv could possibly achieve Ukraine's maximalist objectives is detached from reality and does Ukraine no favors. After suffering horrific losses on the battlefield and several million having fled the country, Ukraine is on the brink of a demographic catastrophe. Fighting to the last Ukrainian is a cynical approach that does not have Ukraine's best interests at heart. Stabilizing the country's population should be a significant factor in pursuing a ceasefire.
No magic weapon will turn the battle in Ukraine's favor. As Mark Episkopos of the Quincy Institute noted, Western-provided missiles "impose operational costs on Russian forces with strikes on high-value targets and infrastructure, but these attacks carry limited long-run strategic value."
Instead, the West and Ukraine should adjust their definition of Ukrainian victory to preserve Ukraine's national sovereignty. The newly appointed commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is a more offensive-minded leader who is willing to put his troops at risk, earning him the nickname the "butcher." But with limited resources, Ukraine and its strategic partners must adopt a defensive posture, building fortifications and defensive capabilities to show it can sustain a long war of attrition and prevent further Russian advances. Such an approach will buy Kyiv time—which it will need if the U.S. election season delays ceasefire negotiations.
Aside from adjusting its military strategy, an honest evaluation of Moscow's ceasefire conditions will be essential to reach an agreement. Putin has vowed to fight on in Ukraine until Moscow secures the country's "demilitarization," "denazification," and neutrality.
"Denazification" is more or less a talking point. The Kremlin has often invoked World War Two or, as it is commonly known in Russia, the Great Patriotic War, when referring to the Russo-Ukrainian War. Because the Soviet Union lost 14 percent of its pre-war population during World War Two, the deadliest war of the 20th century, the conflict retains high levels of symbolic value in Russian civil society. A term like "denazification" resonates deeply with Putin's domestic audience.
Undoubtedly, there are neo-Nazi elements in the Ukrainian military and political spheres. Ukraine's Azov Brigade has used Nazi-era symbolism and recruited neo-Nazis into its ranks. Also, a former Nazi veteran of Ukrainian descent, Yaroslav Hunka, was paraded out after Zelenskyy addressed the Canadian Parliament in 2023. Yet parts of Russia's own military, including PMC Wagner Group, have ties to Russian white supremacist and neo-Nazi far-right extremists.
The more substantial conditions for Moscow are demilitarization and neutrality. "Demilitarization," or the establishment of a buffer zone between Russian territory and the front lines in Ukraine, is an idea that does not currently entice the West or Ukraine and is likely the most challenging aspect of a potential ceasefire. But a buffer zone is not a concession. It is, now more than ever, in Russia's interest to ensure a space separating Russian territory from Ukraine. Prior ceasefires in the Donbas never held up as international monitors could not enforce anything between the two sides. This time around, one way to craft an enforceable ceasefire would be to have a multilateral, non-NATO peacekeeping force of willing neutral countries like Brazil, India, Turkey, and China. Moreover, the West would likely need to refrain from sending Kyiv long-range weapons that pose a threat to Moscow unless Russia resumes hostilities.
Russia and Ukraine must both consent to neutral peacekeepers for the initiative to work effectively. The UN General Assembly could facilitate the deployment of peacekeepers and a demilitarized zone, as was considered to secure the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in 2023. If Moscow and Kyiv sincerely desire to establish a demilitarized zone, this could be an avenue to achieve such an outcome.
Finally, by adopting neutrality, Ukraine can gain the most immediate ground in achieving a ceasefire. In this respect, Finland is a historical example that could serve as a model for Ukraine. During the Winter War, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland, the Finns valiantly prevented the Soviets from subjugating their country. While Finland was forced to concede 11 percent of its territory, Ukraine has retained its core sovereignty and maintained a high sense of national pride.
Making compromises in a brutal conflict like the Russo-Ukrainian War is painful and difficult. However, Ukraine's prosperity must be prioritized, and the relentless bloodshed must finally be put to an end.
Alex Little is an M.S. graduate of Georgia Tech and specializes in Russian and Central Asian affairs. He is also a Young Voices contributor.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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