There are so many murmurs about replacing Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee that a more central question can get sidelined: what are his chances of winning a second term if he is not removed from the ballot?
Democrats are in a singularly unenviable position, eyeing a troubled nation led by a president in obvious decline, with no alternative nominee in sight. Everyone is free to mull some scheme featuring Gavin Newsom riding to the rescue, or the spectacle of Michelle Obama lowered from the rafters at the Chicago convention to accept the anointing of delegates filled with joyful relief.
Right now those are amateurish movie screenplays. Team Biden shows no sign of awakening to the reality the rest of us can see every day—a president struggling with cognitive clarity and unfavorable poll numbers in swing states. There is no sign he plans to appear on our TV screens as Lyndon Johnson did in the spring of 1968 to say "I shall not seek, and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your president."
Vietnam and other deep national divisions had damaged LBJ's reelection chances, but the announcement still stunned the nation. If Biden were to deliver a similar moment of clarity, the overwhelming reaction of his party would be relief. The reason is clear: a second Biden term is simply not a sustainable concept.
This is not a partisan barb. Increasing numbers of Democrats recognize the bleak optics of Biden asking to remain in the Oval Office past his 86th birthday. Few in the party's power structure are able to give voice to such concerns, so they plow forward amid hopes of facing a Donald Trump campaign damaged enough that even Biden can beat it.
But that prospect has dimmed. As Trump's roller coaster ride through various prosecutions began, it was easy to imagine the former president being distracted and weighed down by the obligations of bouncing from campaign rallies to courtrooms through the months of key primaries. But two developments have intervened. His base has only strengthened its resolve to hand him the Republican nomination, and swing state polls across party lines show him strong enough to beat Biden in November.
November is a year away. In this volatile political age, any number of developments can change narratives quickly. Other recent polls have shown a majority of Americans would prefer not to repeat the matchup of 2016. But if Biden is not bowing out, and the Trump lead is insurmountable, that's exactly what we're going to get.
So how would that go? Let's say Biden does not suffer from the disastrous campaign gaffes expected by many. Let's say he is able to plausibly run a 2024 campaign without adhering to the demanding schedule that usually accompanies a reelection bid. And to extend his best-case scenario, let's say some level of Republican fatigue starts to set in as Trump's judicial minefield sprouts a possible conviction or two. Could Biden pull this off?
Not a chance. Because as easy as it is to get preoccupied with Biden's infirmities and Trump's baggage, the 2024 election will ultimately revolve around the familiar factor that usually dictates the result—voters' conclusions about how the country is doing.
The 2024 vote will be a referendum on Biden whether he faces a resilient Trump or a miraculously ascendant Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Any GOP nominee will be able to ask voters the question Ronald Reagan asked as the 1980 campaign drew to a close: "are you better off than you were four years ago?"
Reagan asked that question in a debate alongside Jimmy Carter. Joe Biden will not be allowed within a mile of a debate stage. But the question will stand nonetheless. It will be asked widely along the campaign home stretch, and answered resoundingly on November 5.
Biden will lose, but not because of his age or the accompanying ebb of his faculties. He will lose because Americans hunger for an economy that offers promise, a border that works, a foreign policy that relies on strength, and a party in charge that does not seem clueless in the face of exploding crime and decaying cities.
With all of his behavioral excesses, Trump delivered those things. If either of his two plausible GOP rivals somehow manage to surpass him, President DeSantis or President Haley would be just as likely to do what he did. Starting January 20, 2025, one of them will begin delivering those blessings again to a grateful nation as Joe Biden returns to private life.
Mark Davis is a talk show host for the Salem Media Group on 660AM The Answer in Dallas-Ft. Worth, and a columnist for the Dallas Morning News and Townhall.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Biden Is a One-Term President
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16.11.2023
There are so many murmurs about replacing Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee that a more central question can get sidelined: what are his chances of winning a second term if he is not removed from the ballot?
Democrats are in a singularly unenviable position, eyeing a troubled nation led by a president in obvious decline, with no alternative nominee in sight. Everyone is free to mull some scheme featuring Gavin Newsom riding to the rescue, or the spectacle of Michelle Obama lowered from the rafters at the Chicago convention to accept the anointing of delegates filled with joyful relief.
Right now those are amateurish movie screenplays. Team Biden shows no sign of awakening to the reality the rest of us can see every day—a president struggling with cognitive clarity and unfavorable poll numbers in swing states. There is no sign he plans to appear on our TV screens as Lyndon Johnson did in the spring of 1968 to say "I shall not seek, and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your president."
Vietnam and other deep national divisions had damaged LBJ's reelection chances, but the announcement still stunned the nation. If Biden were to deliver a similar moment of........
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