The question may be fairly asked: how many primary defeats does it take for Nikki Haley to get the message that she will not be the 2024 Republican nominee?
One might think a drubbing in her home state would be an occasion to gather the staff at campaign headquarters to consider withdrawal. But on Saturday night, there stood the unbowed daughter of South Carolina, recalling her pledge to remain in the race no matter the Palmetto State result. "I am a woman of my word," she proclaimed. (Some might recall her 2021 statement that she would not run if Donald Trump did—apparently, that "word" thing is situational.)
So Haley stayed in the race, only to sustain an even bigger loss in Michigan on Tuesday. She still shows no signs of dropping out.
But things change. Political candidates can be afforded latitude to amend their plans when circumstances point to vastly changed prospects. Haley apparently changed her mind about running because she envisioned a marketplace for her candidacy. And to her credit, she outlasted a crowded field of Trump rivals to survive as the last alternative standing.
Now, as Super Tuesday draws near in more than a dozen states, with more than one-third of all delegates up for grabs, short- and long-term questions arise. Why is Haley still running? What will she do upon exiting the race? And what do Trump's dominant victories so far, and the others that likely lie ahead, tell us about today's Republican Party?
Nikki Haley continues to run for the same reason any lingering candidate does: she sees a benefit in continuing, irrespective of results. As annoyance grows in a GOP clearly seeking a second Trump term, that benefit cannot involve boosting her brand right now in what is obviously Trump's GOP. But two constituencies are enjoying her continued candidacy: old-school GOP denizens ruffled by the party's bolder upstarts—and Democrats.
California governor Gavin Newsom spoke for many in his party on Sunday's Meet the Press: "I don't know why Democrats would want her out of the race," he said. "She's one of our better surrogates." Every day Haley sticks around delays the ultimate Republican goal of unifying on the cause of beating Joe Biden. Democrats naturally enjoy this delay, as does a spiteful wing of Republicans that senses the end of a more genteel, globalist, pro-corporate GOP, and would endure a second Biden term if it meant a black eye for Trump.
If March 5 delivers the nationwide drubbing that now seems inevitable, will Haley immediately offer a grudging but gracious concession to the man she insists cannot win? That would seem necessary if she envisions any role in what will be a crowded 2028 Republican primary field.
The former governor could always launch a lukewarm No Labels-style fence-straddling candidacy that would be doomed to obscurity. The dominant media culture would lend its adoration, joined with GOP dinosaurs who value any candidacy that might hinder Trump. She would be awash in cash and interview segments on the way to a footnote that might say she helped return a Democrat to the White House.
But that's not a promising role for a woman who will be a mere 56 when the 2028 primaries roll out. Her wisest course, and the most probable one, is to leave the race after the carnage of Super Tuesday, thank her resilient base, and pick up a paddle to start rowing in her party's obvious direction.
Will that decision be a signal of looming extinction for the corner of the Republican Party that prefers the styles of Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, pining for candidates like Mitt Romney and John McCain? Probably not. The Reagan revolution did not drive the softer Rockefeller wing completely offstage; it merely delivered the lesson that voters craved more conservative energy.
For that chapter of history to repeat, Trump must now achieve what Ronald Reagan did: two consequential terms in office. Trump's would be non-consecutive, and his return path to the White House carries an ironic necessity—he will not be able to win without the approval of most Haley voters.
Haley's road back into the modern party's good graces might feature some sharp twists. There will be a number of days featuring Trump and his base shellacking her for delaying the unity needed for victory in November. But upon withdrawing, if she spends the spring and summer reminding Republicans of the prime directive of uniting for November victory, she could still draw appreciative cheers from an ocean of MAGA hats at the convention in July.
Nikki Haley fans in the media and in the remaining Trump-phobic corridors of the GOP will be disappointed. But if she envisions a future presidential campaign that actually succeeds, it is her only option.
Mark Davis is a syndicated talk show host for the Salem Media Group on 660AM The Answer in Dallas-Ft. Worth, and a columnist for the Dallas Morning News and Townhall.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
When Haley Inevitably Exits, What Comes Next?
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01.03.2024
The question may be fairly asked: how many primary defeats does it take for Nikki Haley to get the message that she will not be the 2024 Republican nominee?
One might think a drubbing in her home state would be an occasion to gather the staff at campaign headquarters to consider withdrawal. But on Saturday night, there stood the unbowed daughter of South Carolina, recalling her pledge to remain in the race no matter the Palmetto State result. "I am a woman of my word," she proclaimed. (Some might recall her 2021 statement that she would not run if Donald Trump did—apparently, that "word" thing is situational.)
So Haley stayed in the race, only to sustain an even bigger loss in Michigan on Tuesday. She still shows no signs of dropping out.
But things change. Political candidates can be afforded latitude to amend their plans when circumstances point to vastly changed prospects. Haley apparently changed her mind about running because she envisioned a marketplace for her candidacy. And to her credit, she outlasted a crowded field of Trump rivals to survive as the last alternative standing.
Now, as Super Tuesday draws near in more than a dozen states, with more than one-third of all delegates up for grabs, short- and long-term questions arise. Why is Haley still running?........
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