THE rising tide of terrorism in Pakistan has faded the euphoria of Afghan Taliban’s triumph in Afghanistan. It was believed that the Taliban’s ascent to the helm of power would provide strategic leverage to Pakistan and reduce the role of India in Afghanistan. However, it has further complicated the regional security environment by creating new security challenges for the country. Growing incidents of terrorist activities in the country have raised the apprehension of the government and security apparatus that the anti-Pakistan militant outfits operating inside Afghanistan pose serious national security threats to the country.
Since the recent past, Pakistan has been grappling with multiple non-traditional security threats—economic insecurity, climate change, societal polarization, resource scarcity, natural disasters, refugee crisis and so on. These challenges have convinced the policy-makers in the country that only geopolitical engagement may not help achieve broader national interests in a shifting geopolitical climate. Against this backdrop, Pakistan opted for geo-economic statecraft to detach itself from crisis-based relations and pivot economic diplomacy, regional connectivity, commercial intercourse and foreign direct investment in its external engagement.
Therefore, peaceful Afghanistan seemed to be paramount. Pakistan thus played an instrumental role in convincing the US that there would be no military solution to Afghan quicksand. It resulted in the Doha Deal between the US and the Taliban. In fact, the US policy priority also shifted from fighting global terrorism to managing great powers that contributed to the withdrawal of the US. Just after the withdrawal of coalition forces, the Taliban increased its offensive against the US-backed regime which resulted in the demise of the central government in Afghanistan.
Interestingly, the rise of Taliban and the collapse of ‘India-friendly’ regime in Afghanistan sparked a wave of euphoria among strategic thinkers that Pakistan could achieve geopolitical leverage against India in the region. It will deepen Pakistan’s regional economic engagement as the Taliban regime may facilitate the country in expanding the CPEC to the Central Asian Republics—thereby zipping the Eurasian Belt by connecting the entire Central Asia with the South Asian and the Indian Ocean region. Indeed, compressing space for India in Afghanistan was a strategic imperative, but the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan provided a fertile ground to the anti-Pakistan militant outfits.
Many scholars warned that the rise of the Taliban would further complicate Pakistan’s security challenges. I have also deliberated upon this in my column “Chaotic Afghanistan: Why Pakistan needs to be cautious” that “the trepidation is that the Taliban’s victory may inspire other radical militant outfits, causing spillover radicalism. Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is not free from concerns for Pakistan.” Apparently, the new wave of terrorism in the country has dimmed the prospects of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The TTP and its affiliates have established their networks there and continue to carry out terrorist activities across Pakistan. According to Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, terror attacks have increased by 73 percent in Pakistan since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan.
In a major rift, Pakistan is ramping up its pressure on the Taliban. It has started expelling 1.7 million Afghan refugees and reconsidering its advocacy to the case of the Taliban-led government for formal recognition at international level. Pakistan blames the Taliban for providing a safe haven and other forms of material assistance to the TTP and its affiliates. It is also debated that Pakistan should exert economic pressure on the Taliban that may coerce the interim government to review its support for the TTP because Pakistan is the main artery of transit trade, 50 percent export destination and 40 percent custom revenue for Afghanistan. Even some endorse other escalatory steps like ‘hot pursuit’ against militant groups, ‘cross-border military action’ to strike the leaders and camps of the TTP or even to support the opposition to the Taliban in Afghanistan that may force the regime to end its support to the TTP and extradite the leaders of militant groups to Pakistan. But it may create more risk of the Taliban’s support to the TTP.
In fact, eliminating the TTP and its affiliates needs a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy, intelligence sharing and the whole-of-government approach. Kinetic means need to be employed in order to wipe out the physical infrastructure of the militant outfits. Ensuring effective border security and management is essential for preventing and countering the flow of terrorist groups like the TTP and its affiliates, but comprehensive military deployment across the porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is indeed an uphill task. Yet, the use of non-kinetic strategies like multi-track diplomacy, direct talks with the Taliban government to shun its support for the TTP, and religious as well as cultural engagement may facilitate the country to compress the space for the TTP in Afghanistan.
Similarly, it is also imperative to seek international support for controlling the trans-boundary terrorism challenges from Afghanistan. Recently, Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen Asim Munir visited the US and met with the top US officials. Counter-terrorism cooperation and defence collaboration seem to have remained at the centre of the Army Chief’s maiden visit to the US. The US agreed to support Pakistan in countering terrorism that can facilitate the country in wiping out the militant groups. As the US and Pakistan have long worked jointly in countering terrorism and intelligence sharing, renewed commitments will assist in tracking down the militant groups and eradicating their networks in the region. What’s more, regional security mechanism for countering terrorism can also be convenient. China and Russia are the major countries sharing the same security concerns in the region. Counter-terrorism cooperation with regional countries can enhance the capacity to combat the TTP effectively. Yet, for a long-term solution, there is a dire need of education and Madaris reforms to ensure religious tolerance, respect for diverse cultures and social cohesion in society that can help in getting rid of extremism, sectarianism, radicalism and terrorism in the country.
—The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst.
views expressed are writer’s own.
A strategic liability?
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04.01.2024
THE rising tide of terrorism in Pakistan has faded the euphoria of Afghan Taliban’s triumph in Afghanistan. It was believed that the Taliban’s ascent to the helm of power would provide strategic leverage to Pakistan and reduce the role of India in Afghanistan. However, it has further complicated the regional security environment by creating new security challenges for the country. Growing incidents of terrorist activities in the country have raised the apprehension of the government and security apparatus that the anti-Pakistan militant outfits operating inside Afghanistan pose serious national security threats to the country.
Since the recent past, Pakistan has been grappling with multiple non-traditional security threats—economic insecurity, climate change, societal polarization, resource scarcity, natural disasters, refugee crisis and so on. These challenges have convinced the policy-makers in the country that only geopolitical engagement may not help achieve broader national interests in a shifting geopolitical climate. Against this backdrop, Pakistan opted for geo-economic statecraft to detach itself from crisis-based relations and pivot economic diplomacy, regional connectivity, commercial intercourse and foreign direct investment in its external engagement.
Therefore, peaceful Afghanistan seemed to be paramount. Pakistan thus played an instrumental role in convincing the US that there would be no military solution to Afghan quicksand. It resulted in the Doha Deal between the US and the Taliban. In fact, the US policy priority also shifted from fighting global terrorism to managing great powers that contributed to........
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