Historically, the Middle East was the area of influence of France and Great Britain, followed by the USA and the former Soviet Union. As soon as the Western players started to gradually withdraw from the region in the early 2000s, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia emerged as new players in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia has intensified due to their deep-rooted historical and political differences and geopolitical aspirations, Both states are struggling hard to become the dominant power in the Arab world.
Iran pursues an expansionist policy where it portrays itself as the protector of the Shiite world, influencing countries such as Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Contrarily, Saudi Arabia pursues a Salafist expansionist stance where it aims to unite the Sunni world against the Shiites, along with maintaining dominance in the Gulf region. The strained ties between the two countries have highlighted sectarian faultlines throughout the Middle East, affecting different areas and contributing to conflicts rooted in Hobbesian norms and beliefs.
Yemen, a strategically positioned country with a sizable population in a dire crisis, is a prime example of this geopolitical battle. Comprehending the Yemeni issue necessitates taking into account its local and regional aspects. Analyzing the crisis requires recognizing the wider fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as the local factors within Yemen.
Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Yemen is tangled and complex. Yemen views Saudi Arabia as an influential regional player, whereas Saudi Arabia perceives Yemen as a challenging state in its neighborhood. Saudi Arabia is using the approach of “containment and maintenance” in which it supports the Yemeni regime to prevent its collapse. However, strategically, the Saudis wanted Yemen to be weak, as stated by King Abdul Aziz. The king perceived Yemen as a threat to Saudi Arabia’s national security and took measures to neutralize the threat. Saudis have taken measures such as the construction of a border fence due to economic concerns, like the fear of an influx of Yemeni migrants.
In the past, Wahabi Saudi Arabia supported the Zaydi imamate in Yemen; however, later on, ideological opposition surfaced. Riyadh supported the Zaydis against Arab nationalist republicans in the 1960s. Following the republicans’ victory, pragmatism took hold, leading to Salafist clerics being stationed in Zaydi mosques and conversions to Sunni Islam. Saudi Arabia began to financially support the Yemeni government and tribal leaders in the 1980s.
Tensions heightened between Yemen and Saudi Arabia as Yemen supported Saddam Hussain during the Persian Gulf War in 1991. This led to deteriorating relations between the two states and the deportation of Yemeni migrant laborers. In 1994, a failed succession attempt was supported by Riyadh, but later on, it focused on border negotiations to reconcile with Yemen. In the 2000s, another rift came in the relations as Saudi Arabia sought to fight against terrorism and Yemen turned into a major front in the fight against Al-Qaeda. This prompted the establishment of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in 2009.
The involvement of Iran in Yemen is quite complex. Imamate was being supported by both Saudi Arabia and Iran before 1979. However, after the Iranian Revolution, northern Yemen made an alliance with Saudi Arabia and Iraq, while southern Yemen tilted towards Iran. In the 1986 civil war in Yemen, Tehran backed a Marxist faction. In order to strengthen his rule, President Saleh of Yemen put regional powers against one another during the 1990s, but relations remained amiable throughout.
Sectarian conflicts and geopolitical issues are not the only reasons for the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The causes of this rivalry are deeply rooted in the Iranian Revolution of 1979, due to which Iran’s identity was radically transformed. This revolution aimed to export its ideology and replace a Western-oriented monarchy with an anti-Western regime.
Abdullah Saleh, in his three-decade rule, failed to establish a stable government, which resulted in an authoritarian state with issues such as unemployment, societal division based on tribal systems, and unjust distribution of income. As the Arab Spring uprisings further heightened the tensions, Saleh had to resign due to pressure from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). While the National Dialogue Conference and interim president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi sought stability, they were unable to offer a long-term solution. Houthi advances were made possible by worsening political and economic unrest.
Additionally, due to the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 in the Middle East, the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia further intensified, and Iran gained influence in the Yemeni and Iraqi states. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia also entered into a direct war in Yemen in 2015 as it felt besieged. Therefore, Saudi Arabia formulated a reactive foreign policy against Iran due to the change in power dynamics in the region and the downfall of Saudi allies such as Egypt’s President Mubarak.
The dimensions of the rivalry are economic, political, and ideological. In order to balance Iran, Saudi Arabia provides support to anti-Iranian groups by increasing military power and spreading Wahhabism. Contrarily, to counter Saudi Arabia, Iran supports militia forces and cultural centers in different parts of the world and employs ideological power.
Due to the siege of Yemen by Iran, Saudi Arabia had started perceiving the Houthi group’s advancements as an existential threat, fearing that a Shiite state would be established at its border. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has utilized sectarianism to bolster the legitimacy of its regime by strategically emphasizing the Iranian threat to reinforce its claim to Sunni leadership.
Saudi Arabia’s intervention has further fueled the ongoing crisis, as Yemen was already in a miserable condition and was facing social, political, and economic issues at the local level. The main concern for Saudi Arabia is Shiite expansionism, resulting in concerns about Shiite mobilization across its borders. Therefore, Saudi Arabia formed a coalition with other Arab nations and supported the recognized government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Yemen. Hadi’s government is fighting against the former forces loyal to the former president, Abdullah Ali Saleh, and Houthi rebels.
Two dimensions are being unfolded in the Yemeni crisis. The first is related to local problems, whereas the second concerns the involvement of global and regional powers, mainly Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the different groups they support in Yemen based on their interests. Iran is being accused of backing Houthis while Saudi Arabia and its allies are making military and political interventions in Yemen, which has contributed a lot to its devastation. This external intervention further worsened the situation and deepened the crisis.
Due to the instability in Yemen, the Houthi group took over in 2014. In order to restore Hadi’s power, Saudi Arabia launched Operation Decisive Storm. Yemen was turned into a proxy battleground due to the divisions between the north and south, along with the differences that existed between allied powers. Iran is being blamed by Saudi Arabia for backing the Houthis, while Saudi Arabia is being blamed by Iran for the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Therefore, the complex dynamics of the conflict not only involve local grievances but also highlight the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, where both states support different groups based on their strategic interests.
Subsequently, Iran wisely takes advantage of the Houthis’ victories to progressively expand its power without having to pay a heavy price. However, Saudi Arabia is still fighting a drawn-out war and is facing significant financial difficulties. Although Iran is believed to have had a part in the Houthis’ backing, the level of their reliance on Iran is complicated because the Houthis did not have much assistance at first. Iran establishes a foothold in the region without having to shoulder the majority of the costs of the battle by taking advantage of Saudi Arabia’s misperceptions of its threat and strategic errors.
Although the six-month UN-brokered ceasefire officially failed in October 2022, since then, hostility levels between the KSA and Yemen have remained quite low. In April 2023, the peace talks mediated by Oman also resumed between Saudi and Houti officials, along with the ongoing UN mediation efforts. Even with continuous efforts, real progress remains difficult to achieve.
On September 14, 2023, the first Houthi delegation to visit the Saudi capital since the war’s start produced nothing more than optimistic statements. The talks mostly focused on initiatives for reconstruction, the possible reopening of ports under Houthi control and the airport in Sanaa, as well as the creation of a timeline for the departure of foreign forces from Yemen. The sole commercial air route from Sanaa was suspended, and a Houthi drone strike in late September tragically claimed the lives of four Bahraini members of the Saudi-led coalition, casting a shadow over these negotiations.
However, the Saudi-Iran rapprochement mediated by China could help both states reach political settlements and maintain cordial relations with each other. These negotiations led to an agreement that aimed for the re-opening of both side’s embassies and the reestablishing of diplomatic relations after years of animosity and tension.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has increased its use of political violence in Yemen in recent months, especially in the governorates of Abyan and Shawba. By using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and IEDs, AQAP attacked forces that supported the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Three soldiers from the Security Belt Forces, which is affiliated with STC, and a military commander perished in August 2023 as a result of a large explosion.
There are rumors of outside assistance and the perception that AQAP is trying to reclaim power in the area due to the recent spike in violence, which includes the use of drones. Five fighters backed by the STC were injured in an attack that occurred in early October, demonstrating the ongoing anti-separatist efforts. The state of affairs indicates possible ramifications for regional stability and reflects a complex web of conflict dynamics.
Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthis, warned that direct American intervention in the Hamas-Israel War would result in military retaliation from the group within three days of the October 7 attack on Israel. Later, US officials declared in mid-October that the USS Carney had successfully intercepted multiple Houthi drones and cruise missiles that were headed toward Israel. On October 31, the Houthis formally joined the Hamas-Israel War to defend Palestinians in the Gaza Strip while continuing their missile and drone assaults.
Attacks like this continued until November. The Houthi attacks have caused global trade disruptions, turning the Red Sea into a focal point of conflict. After taking over a commercial ship on November 19, the Houthis have since used drones, missiles, and speedboats to target at least thirty-three more ships. Major shipping companies have stopped using the Red Sea, which is where almost 15% of all seaborne trade passes, as a result of this ongoing assault. Rather, ships are rerouting, circumnavigating Southern Africa on longer and more expensive itineraries.
The consequences are severe, as concerns about a new cost-of-living crisis are sparked by the increased costs of shipping and insurance. The United States and the United Kingdom launched coordinated airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on January 11 and 22, respectively, in response to the situation. The Houthis are not affected by these developments and have vowed to continue their military campaign in the Gaza Strip until a ceasefire is reached and supplies are permitted into the enclave. The situation is made more complex by the uncertainty surrounding the attacks’ potential to continue and their possible effects on world trade.
According to Wendt’s point of view, cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be achieved if both agreed to shift from conflict to cooperation. The Iranian Revolution was the major event that strained relations between the two states, which forced them to move towards a Hobbesian framework marked by mutual existential threats. Cordial relations were maintained, but for a very short period, and then animosity prevailed, fueled by regional events such as Arab Spring uprisings and the Persian Gulf War.
The current Yemen crisis is exacerbated by the ideological and geopolitical conflict that exists between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis, marginalized by Saudi and Yemeni states, looked to Iran for assistance and support, especially after the year 2014. Although the main aim of Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen was to curb Iran’s influence, it actually made the Houthis more tilted towards Iran. The Yemeni humanitarian catastrophe highlights the dangerous consequences of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle Eastern region.
Recently, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to come to the negotiating table with the efforts of China. The Saudi government is not receiving the same support from the USA as it used to, whereas Tehran is in a dilemma after the Abraham Accords and does not want Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. In international relations, there are no permanent enemies or friends, only national interests. Therefore, Iran and Saudi Arabia agree on maintaining cordial relationships in pursuit of their respective interests.
Saudi Arabia also wants to end its conflict in Yemen with Iran because there could be an impact on the Bab Al Mandeb if the Houthi group manages to seize control of Yemen’s west coast. Approximately 5% of the oil that travels worldwide passes through this strait. If Houthis take control of that region, it might stop the flow of oil through this crucial channel. Therefore, negotiations should also be made with the Houthi rebels to bring stability to Yemen and the entire Middle Eastern region.
However, the peace process is now halted due to the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict. Negotiations over the Yemeni crisis are stalling due to the Houthi’s involvement in the Israel-Gaza conflict, which is drawing attention and resources from abroad. But as the Yemen crisis is causing harm to both regional powers, a change to more fair policies, dialogue between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, and an understanding of regional stability that benefits all parties involved are necessary for Saudi-Iran normalization and for resolving these crises.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
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